In a striking counterpoint to Biden’s public silence on Tehran, his government launched intense efforts behind the scenes, reflecting an urgency that government officials say is necessary to address the country’s nuclear program, missiles and regional activities, and to resolve the question of how and turn to the nuclear deal with Iran.
The stirring of quiet activities – alongside Biden’s restraint – highlights the radical change in tactics between this government and the Trump White House on general issues, but particularly when it comes to delicate diplomatic efforts. Gone are the tweets and provocative threats, decisions made without allies and outside the deliberative inter-agency process, a contrast that White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki emphasized on Friday.
“Today’s meeting is part of an ongoing policy review,” Psaki tweeted about the National Security Council’s Steering Committee discussions, and “proof that the interagency process has returned to work after four long years of decision-making. driven by personality. “
Battle lines drawn
There is broad consensus that while President Donald Trump has built some influence through his campaign of maximum pressure against Iran, he has failed to use it effectively. Tehran continued its regional interference and constantly increased its violations of the nuclear agreement and support for terrorism.
Now, with Biden’s newly formed Iran team just starting work, it is trying to reach consensus on how the United States should approach a return to the nuclear deal, a senior government official told CNN. The first set of diplomatic battle lines has already been drawn, the two countries are vying for positions, US lawmakers are defending for and against and other actors are trying to build momentum.
The first battle is over the first stage.
Biden said the United States would return to the nuclear deal as soon as Tehran fully fulfills the pact again. Iran responded that, as the U.S. abandoned the agreement in 2018, Washington should take the first step by removing the paralyzing sanctions that Trump liberally imposed on Iranian leaders, individuals and the economy, and terrorism.
“The United States needs to return to obey and Iran will be ready to respond immediately,” said Zarif.
Tehran’s parliament stepped up the pressure, passing legislation on December 2 that requires significant increases in its nuclear activities at regular intervals if Iran’s demands for easing sanctions, including in the banking and oil sectors, are not met.
Tehran announced in January that it had resumed enrichment of uranium with up to 20% purity at its Fordow facility. Nuclear officials increased the enrichment capacity at the Natanz facility last week. And on Monday, Iran broadcast video footage of what it claimed to be the “most powerful” rocket engine, using a system that could launch long-range missiles capable of endangering US allies in Europe and the Middle East. or the USA itself.
Two US defense officials told CNN that the US estimates that Iranian leaders were not trying to be provocative, but signaling that they will continue to pursue a nuclear weapons program unless the United States lift sanctions. Regional experts say that is the goal of Iran’s nuclear measures as well.
“Indeed, the goal of this is to put pressure on the United States to return to JCPOA. This is a kind of overarching political objective,” said Eric Brewer, deputy director and senior researcher for the Nuclear Issues Project at the Center for Strategies and Studies international standards.
In turn, Biden’s team is betting that Iran wants the deal more desperately than it does.
Biden government officials have said repeatedly that it will take time. Psaki said on Friday that renewing the JCPOA “really depends on Iran” and its return to full compliance.
Just the beginning
State Department spokesman Ned Price, questioned whether the government was considering sending a signal or gesture of goodwill to Iran, said the “first focus of Biden’s team is engagement, partnership discussions with our allies, partners and members of Congress “.
If the United States re-joins the JCPOA, Price said, it will only be the beginning. The United States “would use this as a platform for subsequent agreements that would address other areas of concern … ballistic missiles, support for proxies, a number of other issues are included in that,” he said.
Senior officials are sending what may be signs of a good cop or a bad cop, some warning that a deal will take time, others suggesting that involvement is urgently needed. A government official told CNN that there is growing concern that Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities have made the potential for a renewed nuclear deal virtually impossible.
Publicly, Blinken said the United States is “very far” from reaching a “longer and stronger” agreement with Iran – asking it to return to full compliance first – while national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on January 29. that “one criticism the initial priority must be to deal with what is a growing nuclear crisis”, as Iran gets closer to having enough fissile material for a weapon.
During an event at the United States Institute of Peace, Sullivan noted that after four years, Iran is “significantly closer to a nuclear weapon than when the previous government withdrew from the JCPOA”, that “its ballistic missile capability has also advanced dramatically “and” their recklessness and sponsorship of terrorism in the region have not diminished and in some areas have also accelerated. “
Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said the growing dangers Sullivan described are “precisely what military leaders, diplomats, lawmakers from both parties and our country’s closest allies have warned that President Trump would happen if he abandoned Iran nuclear deal. The new administration is tasked with mitigating the damage caused by Donald Trump, and I believe that President Biden and Secretary Blinken are doing what is necessary to re-engage with our international partners and restrict Iran’s nuclear activity. ”
But James Jeffrey, who served as the Trump administration’s special representative for engagement with Syria, warned that “finding a deal quickly on the JCPOA will not be as easy as it looks”.
“Iranians are pushing for things that are unacceptable to us, including returning the United States to compliance first,” said Jeffrey, who is now president of the Wilson Center program for the Middle East, in a call with reporters. For its part, the US also wants to discuss the missiles “and particularly the Iranian presence and activities in the region. … Iran does not want to discuss these things and has made that clear”.
Biden’s failure to act on Iran, Jeffrey thinks, is due to “some concern that if the Iranians think we really want this deal more than they do” they will use non-nuclear issues – including their missile program, regional activities and support for terrorism – “increase or decrease” pressure on the United States and “squeeze more of us”. Removing sanctions too quickly will deprive Biden of the best advantage the United States has, said Jeffrey.
Rugged ride
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, was more optimistic: “I have a hard time seeing them not solving this, for the simple reason that it aligns so directly with their interests to go back to JCPOA, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be a rough ride and those are some of the bumps. “
The comings and goings between Iran and the United States “are about saving the face,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute. “Iran wants to negotiate; the Americans want to negotiate.” Iran’s fragile economy offers the United States some advantage, he said. “Both sides know that if difficult negotiations on Iran’s missiles begin, there are big issues that will take months, if not years, to negotiate. Meanwhile, the Iranian economy is in the tank.”
Zarif, who also faces the prospect that the June elections could end his term as foreign minister, suggested that European Union foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell could “sort of choreograph the actions the United States needs to take. and the actions that are taken. needed to be taken by Iran. “
And French President Emmanuel Macron made it clear that he would like the job, saying he would do “everything he could to support any initiative on the side of the United States to resume a demanding dialogue”. Speaking during an online forum sponsored by the Atlantic Council think tank, Macron said “I would try to be an honest broker … We need to finalize a new deal with Iran and President Biden has a critical role”.
CNN’s Barbara Starr and Vivian Salama contributed to this report.