America’s war in Afghanistan is only 10 weeks away – at least on paper.
Why it matters: Donald Trump promised total withdrawal of troops by May 1, as part of a deal struck a year ago with the Taliban. President Biden must now decide whether to take the risks of honoring him.
The big picture: Under the agreement, the Taliban pledged to reduce violence, to engage in peace negotiations with the Afghan government (which was not a party to the Trump-Taliban agreement) and to ensure that Afghanistan does not again become a haven for terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda. .
- The Taliban has stopped targeting US and NATO troops, but continues to attack Afghan forces. Intra-Afghan peace talks have stalled and the Taliban has refused to cut ties with al-Qaeda.
- Meanwhile, Trump reduced the count of U.S. troops to 2,500 from about 13,000 before leaving office. NATO allies have an additional 8,000 troops in the country.
- Flashback: The troop count reached 100,000 under Barack Obama. The most prominent internal opponent of Obama’s escalation was Biden, who has long advocated a smaller operation focused on counterterrorism.
The situation: The Pentagon accused the Taliban of running away from its commitments, but said the deal remains valid. Biden also retained the man who negotiated, Zalmay Khalilzad.
- NATO has not decided whether its troops will remain beyond May, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said last week. The decision of the alliance will be closely linked to Biden’s.
Biden has three broad options.
1. Get out on time.
- Leaving fully before May could lead to “the collapse of the Afghan state” and “renewed civil war”, according to a recent report by the Afghan Study Group, a commission appointed by Congress led by former Joint Chiefs chairman Joe Dunford.
- The commission also warned that Afghanistan could again become a base for terrorist groups to conspire against the United States within “18 months to three years”.
- If Biden finally ends the United States’ war in Afghanistan, he could be forced to watch cities fall into the hands of the Taliban and the hard-won freedoms of Afghan women erased.
- The argument for to withdraw completely is that there will never be a happy ending to this war, and 20 years is enough time.
2. Get out of business and return to a “condition-based” approach.
- The Taliban would likely resume attacks on US and NATO forces and withdraw entirely from the intra-Afghan peace process.
- This would leave the United States once again facing an unlimited commitment to Afghanistan and the prospect of sending additional troops if conditions deteriorate.
- The argument for This approach is that the Taliban has no intention of holding back its share of the deal, and the United States has put a lot into the fight to see its gains wiped out.
3. Look for an extension deadline and renewed the emphasis on the peace process.
- This would give Biden time and give intra-Afghan negotiations some chance of success.
- But that would require the Taliban to agree to an extension at a time when its main objective – the removal of foreign troops from Afghanistan – is coming into focus.