- Israel has yet to respond to a suspected Iranian oil spill on its back in February.
- The lack of response could be a sign that it is preparing a substantial attack against Iran, sources said to Insider.
- Biden and his allies in Europe fear that a revenge attack could disrupt nuclear negotiations with Iran.
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Israel suspects that Iran intentionally dispatched a ship to dump hundreds of tons of crude oil on its beaches, the area’s worst ecological disaster in decades, in revenge for the November killing of the country’s top nuclear scientist, according to Israeli officials and media. .
But Israeli officials told Insider that the statement by the environment minister blaming Iran directly, released on Wednesday, was premature, as the military and intelligence services have yet to make a final decision on Iran’s culpability and the level response to what would be the most blatant act of environmental terrorism in recent history.
“That statement should never have been made,” a former Israeli intelligence officer, who still advises the government and therefore cannot be identified, told Insider. “The IDF and Mossad are responsible for investigating the attacks on the Israeli homeland, determining responsibility and suggesting a course of action to respond to. This process is ongoing and is not the environment minister’s portfolio for starting wars with Iran. . “
In the past two weeks, tons of crude oil have reached the beaches of Israel and Lebanon, destroying wildlife and causing ecological damage that can take years to restore, according to environmental experts. But after the minister directly accused Iran of a complex operation to dump oil into the sea, the issue took on a new dimension as fears in Washington and Europe increased over the possibility of an Israeli response.
When pressed about whether Israeli military and intelligence services suspect an Iranian operation, as described by the minister – who said that a Libyan-flagged ship sailed from Iran to Israel and dumped oil in the sea before stopping in Syria and returning to Syria. Iran – the former officer acknowledged that was the case.
“Well, yes, it seems so, but there is a process to gather all the information and evidence and synthesize it into useful information that can help in decision-making,” said the official. “It is being treated as a direct attack on Israel by a foreign enemy, the most potentially serious since 2006 [attack by Hezbollah to kidnap two Israeli soldiers]. THE [prime minister’s office] was already investigating Iran’s attack on [the ship]. The attack options were already being considered only in this. “
There is a concern that Israel is working on a substantial response, “which would be a problem for those of us who want a nuclear deal”
On February 26, two explosions hit an Israeli cargo ship operating in the Gulf of Oman. Authorities immediately blamed Iranian forces, who have long been accused of sporadic attacks underway on ships in the area. This attack, the first time Iran has directly targeted Israeli maritime transport in the region, had already sparked a heated debate in Israel over the need to respond against Iranian targets.
With this attack heavily attributed to Iran, there is growing concern that Israeli intelligence will make the same determination as the environment ministry – that the oil spill is an Iranian operation. Israel could use the double provocations as a reason to attack Iran, just as Europe and the United States hope to restart nuclear negotiations with Iran in exchange for the reopening of economic trade and more peaceful relations.
“Iran is very good at managing the escalation, but if both incidents were theirs, that is a gamble, because both operations made the Israelis substantially more angry than normal provocations,” said a European diplomat in the region, who refused to be identified because of the extreme sensitivity.
“Iran must know that Israel is looking for a good reason to escalate things out of fear that Biden will ignore them when making a new deal on the nuclear program,” said the diplomat. “And although I normally receive nations that do not jump to conclusions, I suspect that I would prefer that [Israel Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu] appeared on television screaming and waving pictures of dead sea turtles. Until he gives this performance, there is a concern that it means that the planners are working on a substantial response, which would be a problem for those who want a nuclear deal. “
A US National Security Council official – who does not speak to the media to attribute the information – said the concern about an Israeli response was real, but frustration with Iran’s provocations was growing in both DC and Europe.
“Everyone knows that Bibi wants to slow down any resumption of talks on nuclear weapons and is looking for an excuse to force some action that cannot be undone,” said the official. “But, obviously, there are hardliners in Tehran who agree and continue to offer excuses to him. It is difficult to preach patience when Iran is acting in this aggressive manner.”