NFL Odds: Rams vs. Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks with 3 seeds hosts the Los Angeles Rams with 6 seeds on Saturday of the Wild Card Weekend. Given the familiarity between these teams and the uncertainty about Jared Goff’s availability, where is the stake?
Find our comprehensive view below, with the following (click on a marker to skip):
Rams vs. Seahawks Picks
Our team details how they are betting on Saturday’s game. Click on a type of choice above to skip to that analysis.
Rams Spread
Stuckey: There is persistent uncertainty regarding the situation of the Rams quarterback at the start of this game.
Sean McVay won’t say who will start until the day of the game – that means we can see the undeveloped John Wolford make his second start to his career or Jared Goff, if he’s healthy enough. I put the Seahawks around 1-point favorites if Goff starts with the Rams, but closer to the 5-point favorites if it’s Wolford.
I think Goff has a slightly better chance than 50-50 to play, so my adjusted line is just under three after weighting for both scenarios. Therefore, I tried to hit Rams +4 when he was still available, but decreased it to +3.5 if Wolford is the initial or +3 if he is Goff.
Under
Michael Arinze: There are no secrets between these two teams – this is a divisional clash and the third time they have met this season. Since 2005, when NFC divisional teams met for the third time, the total is 7-2-1 down (according to data from Action Labs).
In their two previous meetings, the Rams and Seahawks totaled 68 points, and each match was below the total. In addition, in their last eight games, the Seahawks are 7-1 down, while the Rams are in a row of four consecutive games and are 8-2 down in the last 10 games.
The total is 15-7 for the under in the last 22 times that these NFC West opponents faced each other.
There are many data points that support this, especially considering how petty both defenses have been in the final stretch, which I cover in more detail in my full preview of the game. And the situation for Rams’ defenders is significant, regardless of whether Goff starts.
FanDuel still has that total listed at 42.5 on Friday, and considering that it is already as low as 41.5 on other bets (compare the real time odds here), there is a chance of falling further before the start of the game. I will try to catch this at the current price, but it would not go below 41.5 points.
1H Under
Anderson: Love me a good divisional rematch in the playoffs.
You know that these teams know each other inside and out. They know every player, every trend, every little crease and advantage. They have that specific play set for that very specific scenario, just waiting to throw a surprise at their opponent. So much the better that we put Sean McVay’s offensive genius against Pete Carroll’s defensive magic.
Divisional rematches tend to be fought because these teams know each other so well. They know exactly how to configure and defend. Games like this can sometimes start slowly and cautiously, while teams sit and wait for the right moment or look for that key piece they’ve kept.
In addition, these teams are tending strongly towards defense at the end of the season, and not towards attack.
The Rams enter the postseason with the Football Outsiders’ No. 1 defensive DVOA in the NFL. The weighted DVOA, well, puts recent games more strongly in the equation. Basically, this means that Rams has the best defense in football at the moment, led by Aaron Donald wreaking havoc in the front and Jalen Ramsey closing things in the secondary. Ramsey allowed only one catch for DK Metcalf in two games this season, and the Rams only allowed 13 full deep passes throughout the season.
In the first half of the season, the Seahawks were devastating opponents with Russell Wilson’s deep balls. That advantage completely disappeared in the second half, as they are now one of the worst at throwing it deep, and the Rams must take it even further.
As Seattle’s attack slowed, its defense improved.
Remember the worst pass defense in league history? The Seahawks are 16th in defensive DVOA and 11th in weighted defensive DVOA. It is still below average in the playoffs without the bad teams, but its defense and running game have suddenly become strengths, while the passing game is not so dangerous.
Seattle’s running defense has been especially strong, and this helps to negate the most effective force of LA’s attack – the Rams have qualified near the top of the NFL in a hasty attack DVOA all season, but with their running backs damaged and the tough race of the Seahawks D, that will put a lot more on Rams QBs.
What we have here are opponents who combine well and compensate strength with strength. This leads to a cautious and defensive game, with both teams running a lot with the ball and a clock at high speed.
These teams played two weeks ago and were 6-6 at halftime. The Seahawks won 6-3 over the 49ers half a week ago, when the Rams won 12-7 at the interval against the Cardinals – and only because of a late choice of six. The Rams were also behind the Jets, 13-3, at the break, three weeks ago.
The Rams have not scored an offensive touchdown in more than eight quarters.
This is basically a game of choice with the exception that we could see a higher score in the fourth period, once the coaches didn’t hold on to anything – and Russ started cooking. I don’t want a late cover of a low number, so I’ll just repeat the first half and leave.
I loved it at 21.5 at the beginning of the week, but I will still play until 20 – you can crash at 20.5 at BetMGM on Friday night. We didn’t reach 20 without a couple of touchdowns, and I don’t see ourselves getting there.
Notable injuries from Rams-Seahawks
Tommy Stokke: A week after thumb surgery, Jared Goff is struggling to play on Saturday. He missed Week 17 after hurting his thumb during a week 16 defeat to the Seahawks.
John Wolford made his NFL debut in place of Goff last week, doing enough to give the Rams a victory over the Cardinals and secure a playoff spot.
The decision is expected to get straight to the point: Coach Sean McVay has announced that the team will not appoint a quarterback until the start of the game.
Wolford took more pictures during this week’s training to prepare himself as the starter. Goff was operated on in the hope of being able to return to this specific game.
Most valuable players in Rams-Seahawks
Our Director of Predictive Analysis, Sean Koerner, highlights the five most valuable players for both teams based on how many points they are worth for the spread.
- Tre Flowers (-0.06) is set to return from IR, but DJ Reed (+0.13) threw the lights out and will probably remain Seattle’s starting cornerback.
- DK Metcalf (+0.73) is already one of the most valuable wide receivers in the NFL. He enters Year 3 next season, which is usually when a big out comes to a head. I hope it is worth 1-1.5 points against the spread in the coming seasons.
- Jamal Adams (+0.46) started off a little slow like Seahawk. He has the potential to be worth 0.5-1 points against the spread when playing at his peak, which he is now.
- Jared Goff (+2.53) is worth about 3.5-4 points over the QB John Wolford backup (-0.74). Head coach Sean McVay is one of the reasons why the crash may not be so severe.
- Aaron Donald (+0.98) is worth 1-1.5 points against the spread. He is the only defensive player who can be worth two full points, depending on the match and the numbers it will cross.
- Andrew Whitworth (+0.40) could return to the playoffs, sending Joseph Noteboom (-0.22) back to the bank. That would be a great boost to the attack.
Rams-Seahawks WR / CB Fights
The wide receiver vs. matchups cornerback can be the most important individual matches in football. Read NFL senior analyst Matthew Freedman’s analysis of the struggles expected this Saturday.