It’s the NFL championship weekend, which is exciting news because it means that we will find out who will be playing in the Super Bowl. It is also a little sad because it means that Sunday will be the last time that we will have several NFL games until next season.
It also means that we have fewer opportunities left in the season to make money by betting on games, so we are not going to waste them. We couldn’t ask for better combinations than the ones we got. In AFC, we have the defending champion facing one of the hottest teams in the league. The NFC is a battle of two great quarterbacks of all time, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.
I look forward to watching and trying to get everyone to make some money in the process!
The Packers only looked bad once this season. Sure, they lost three games, but it was only in the 38-10 defeat on the road against that same Tampa team that the Packers were ashamed. They jumped to a 10-0 lead after the first quarter, and then death and destruction began. Aaron Rodgers launched a pick-six, which started a 38-point race for Tampa. Rodgers would make another choice in the game, was fired four times and pressed countless times, while Tampa’s defense displayed what was probably his best performance of the season.
And that’s what makes me lean towards the Packers in the rematch. I don’t think Tampa can play so well again, and I don’t think Rodgers can play so badly. In addition, as I mentioned, Green Bay jumped to a 10-0 lead in that game before it all fell apart. Now, with the Lambeau rematch in late January, the Packers have the upper hand. Yes, Tom Brady has spent an entire career playing in cold climates with the Patriots, but he played in a team full of players who played in cold climates. He played on teams built for these conditions. I don’t think Tampa was built for that.
This does not mean that they will not succeed. I think the Bucs will be able to pass the ball against the Green Bay defense. Keeping Aaron Rodgers off the field is the best thing the Bucs can do for their defense, and that will probably be the game plan. This should limit the score for both teams. So, although I think the Packers are the best team and win this game more often, the smartest move is to take the Under. I just don’t see a shooting going on.
Projected score: Packers 27, Bucs 23
Best bet: Below 51.5 (-110)
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Most recent odds:
Kansas City Chiefs -3
I’m choosing with the idea that Patrick Mahomes is going to play. He has been practicing this week and, although the Chiefs did not show up and say anything, I find it hard to believe that they would have let Mahomes take valuable practice representatives from Chad Henne if the Chiefs felt they would need Henne Domigo. And if Mahomes is playing, I am supporting Mahomes at home.
Buffalo’s defense improved over the course of the season and came in 12th place in the NFL in DVOA against the pass. Still, I can’t help but notice that Buffalo’s improvement in defense coincided with a series of games against San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Denver, New England, Miami, Indianapolis and Baltimore. Of these seven opponents, none qualified in the top half of the NFL to pass DVOA in the attack. Indianapolis, in 16th, is the pass attack with the best ranking of the seven. Kansas City is in second place, behind Green Bay.
Delaying passing attacks like these is much easier to do than delaying those in Kansas City. A lot has been said about Kansas City’s struggles against spreading lately, and they are real, but I’m not too concerned about them. Part of the reason for them is that the Chiefs are the title champions and, as a result, they are often overvalued in the market. I think Mahomes’ injury speculation offers them a better price than we could have seen without any health issues. In addition, Kansas City was on its way to protect itself against the Browns last week, before Mahomes was injured. They were winning 19-10 in Cleveland when he fell and then had to settle for a field goal. If Mahomes never gets hurt, I think the Chiefs win the game with relative comfort. And although I don’t see them erasing Buffalo on Sunday, I never see them ever in serious danger.
Projected score: Chiefs 31, Bills 23
Best bet: Chiefs -3 (-115)
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Last week |
2-1 |
0.95 |
|
Season |
29-24-4 |
2.7 |