MOSCOW (AP) – Shaken by protests across the country against opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Russian authorities are moving quickly to block any new demonstrations – from legally pressuring their allies to launching a campaign to discredit the demonstrations.
Unprecedented mass demonstrations across Russia on Jan. 23 demanding Navalny’s release from prison have resulted in thousands of arrests and dozens of criminal investigations have been opened. Dozens of his associates and main allies were arrested, with some facing criminal charges leading to prison terms.
President Vladimir Putin compared the organizers of the protests to “terrorists”, and lawmakers accused Navalny of being a Western puppet and betrayed his country to benefit Russia’s opponents.
Navalny’s team admits the pressure is unprecedented, but says it won’t budge and asks for another demonstration on Sunday.
A look at the Kremlin’s turmoil and strategy:
WHAT LEAD TO PROTESTS?
Navalny, Putin’s fiercest critic, returned to Russia on January 17 after five months in Germany, where he was recovering from poisoning by a nervous agent he attributes to the Kremlin and which Russian officials deny.
The 44-year-old Navalny was detained at the airport on arrival and jailed for 30 days, pending a hearing on the possibility of sending him to prison for alleged parole violations of a past conviction – which he claims to be motivated policy. A court on Thursday refused to release Navalny, rejecting his appeal for his arrest.
Navalny is famous for his video investigations of official corruption. After his arrest, his team released a report on his YouTube channel about a $ 1.3 billion seaside complex, allegedly built for Putin, with luxurious Italian furniture and even expensive bathroom brushes. He got over 100 million views. The Kremlin and even Putin – who never mentions Navalny by name – denied that it was built for him.
Navalny’s team called for mass protests demanding his release on January 23, and tens of thousands of people took to the streets in more than 100 Russian cities in the largest and most widespread outbreak of rage against the Kremlin in years. The demonstrations took place despite the lack of authorization, which previously prevented a large attendance due to the threat of arrest.
WHAT WAS THE AUTHORITY’S RESPONSE?
Days before the protests, several Navalny associates were arrested. Warnings that his team was encouraging minors to take to the streets began to spread to their parents. Navalny’s team rejected the charges.
In the protests themselves, more than 4,000 people were arrested, according to OVD-Info, a human rights group that monitors political prisons. He said it was the peak in his nine-year record-keeping history in the Putin era. In some cities, rallies were dispersed aggressively and human rights defenders said there were cases of violence. About 20 criminal investigations have been opened on a wide range of charges.
On Wednesday, Moscow police conducted a series of searches of apartments and offices belonging to Navalny associates and opposition figures, including his own apartment. The searches were conducted as part of investigations into alleged violations of coronavirus regulations during the protests, a charge that could carry up to two years in prison.
Five people – including Navalny’s brother Oleg and main ally Lyubov Sobol – were detained for 48 hours in the case.
The Russian Investigative Committee has also accused strategist Navalny Leonid Volkov of encouraging minors to participate in unauthorized protests. Volkov, who left Russia two years ago, faces a possible prison sentence if he returns. The case against him was opened a day after he wrote a Facebook post asking minors not to protest.
“We haven’t faced that kind of pressure before,” said Ivan Zhdanov, head of the Navalny Foundation to Combat Corruption, to the AP.
AND THE OTHER OPPOSITION GROUPS?
For years, Russia’s opposition has consisted of fragmented groups that often disagree with each other, although there have been instances of unity in recent years: in 2019, a campaign to allow opposition candidates to run for the Moscow city council saw a dozen different politicians come together and galvanize mass protests every weekend for several weeks.
Navalny’s case attracted the unanimous support of several opposition politicians, even those who generally disagree with him. They attended the January 23 rally, issued statements demanding his release, and shared the video about the “Putin palace” on social media.
“The pressure on someone who is an opponent of the incumbent government, of course, affects everyone, and we need to defend everyone and try to help in some way,” said Moscow policy Yulia Galyamina, who gained prominence in the 2019 campaign and She herself faced prison for protest violations, she told the Associated Press.
Some activists were caught in the crossfire. Moscow police arrested a member of the Civil Society movement, broke into his home and that of another member in Navalny’s investigations. The home of the Galyamina spokesman was also broken into.
DOES KREMLIN SEE PROTESTS AS A THREAT?
Authorities considered last week’s protests small. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said an “insignificant number” of people attended the rallies, compared to the number of people who voted for Putin.
At the same time, state TV, which generally ignores opposition protests, has devoted long segments to rallies, focusing on cases of violence by protesters and emphasizing police restraint.
Navalny’s team said on Wednesday in the Telegram messaging app that this week’s raids are a sign of Putin’s “crazy fear” of mass rallies.
Analysts believe the government takes the protests very seriously. Tatyana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a political studies center, says the leadership, to some extent, understands that there are reasons for public frustration since the unpopular 2018 pension reform, in which the retirement age was raised. But the Kremlin also believes that the upheaval that Navalny is fostering is being supported by foreign opponents.
“On the one hand, there is public frustration, on the other, there is … opposition that in the Kremlin it is perceived as an instrument of foreign intelligence agencies. This combination can work to harden the authorities’ line, ”Stanovaya told AP. “I think we are already seeing.”
WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?
Both analysts and Navalny’s allies believe that the repression will continue and is likely to increase as the impasse between the politician and the authorities continues.
“I have worked with Navalny for 10 years and, year after year, this repression machine against us has never slowed down – it only picked up speed,” Sobol told reporters the day before his arrest.
Other Navalny allies were not deterred. “We hope that it will irritate people even more before the January 31 rallies, and that even more people will show up,” Zhdanov said.
It is crucial that authorities keep the situation under control before the September parliamentary elections, said Kremlin political analyst and former speechwriter Abbas Gallyamov on Facebook.
The election will determine who will control the State Duma in 2024, when Putin’s current term expires and he can seek re-election for another six years in office, thanks to constitutional reforms last year.
“In the midst of deteriorating living conditions and the growing demand for change, people are already inclined to refuse to support the authorities. To add insult to injury, protesters appear, showing their discontent at not being alone, ”said Gallyamov. “Intensifying street protests could cost the authorities an electoral catastrophe. To avoid it, all means are good. “