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In all likelihood, this is a lost season in Kentucky basketball history.
Seated at 5-10 overall and 4-4 at the Southeast Conference, after Saturday’s Big 12 / SEC Challenge match against Texas was canceled due to coronavirus problems among the UK program, there is almost no path to the NCAA Tournament through a general bid. The opportunity to receive automatic bidding by winning the SEC Tournament obviously remains, but this team has given no reason to believe that winning multiple games in a row against an increasingly difficult competition is possible.
So, if we essentially consider 2020-2021 as a lost season, where do we go from here? There is a vocal but totally crazy faction of fans that would “solve” short-term problems by separating from coach John Calipari. This “solution” does not even deserve attention in my opinion. Coach Calipari’s track record earned him a LOT more rope than a bad season.
Although I say that coach Calipari and his team are up to the task of returning the Wildcats to a team that fights for the national title, I am also realistic enough to realize that there are problems that the program faces today.
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There was a clear devaluation of talent coming this season. BJ Boston is far from the best lottery pick we (and the rest of the country) expected him to be. In the limited time before his injury, Terrence Clarke also didn’t look like a lottery winner. Even coming from the transfer portal, former All-ACC player Olivier Sarr did not respond to the hype.
There were some major recruiting mistakes in Coach Cal’s time (Skal Labissiere and Khalil Whitney, to name a few), but generally, they come as an outlier in another very strong class. The problem this season was that EVERYONE underperformed, except perhaps Isaiah Jackson, Davion Mintz and Dontaie Allen, who all looked fine for short periods. When your freshmen are not ready to contribute at a high level and you make a mistake in the transfer portal, there is nowhere else to turn.
The team’s biggest problem this season, however, is the absence of Ashton Hagans and EJ Montgomery. With as many games played as Kentucky has played against really good teams this season, it is not crazy to think that those two as juniors could turn the 5-10 record to 10-5. This would have prevented many of those difficult conversations that are taking place across the Big Blue Nation. However, that kind of exit could happen again this year and that is where things get scary.
If BJ Boston plays well this season, he may well still find himself in the first round of the NBA Draft and I can never blame a boy for going out under those circumstances. In a perfect world, that would be the end of the friction with this season’s cast (aside from Mintz and Sarr obviously gone, unless they decide to take the NCAA-free year of eligibility). As we all know, Kentucky’s basketball program doesn’t work in a perfect world. Children come to Lexington with the expectation of being perfect, and when that initial success does not arrive, they look for greener pastures. In fact, this is no one’s fault, it’s just recruitment in the 21st century.
Terrence Clarke lost enough time at this point, with his return date continually being kicked on the road as well, which is hard to see him staying in the first round. So, he SHOULD go back to Kentucky, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting on it.
Isaiah Jackson, despite his elite rim protection, is still extremely raw offensively and is often lost defensively. He could really benefit from an extra year in college, but I don’t really foresee a scenario where he doesn’t end up in the NBA Draft with Boston. Furthermore, just because it looks like this is how college basketball works at this point, it would probably go ahead and hope to lose at least one other player to the transfer portal. This constant change in the list was not so important when you were bringing Anthony Davis, Karl Anthony-Towns, Jamal Murray, etc. However, when you are losing the best of the best, or you get them and they just aren’t as good as expected, they can put your program in a really difficult situation.
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With all that said, I don’t think it’s all disgrace and sadness at #BBN. From the 2019-2020 season to the 2020-2021 season, we saw ONLY the return of Keion Brooks. His little more than four points per game was the only return production this team had.
Regardless of what happens in the off-season, I believe that there will be more return than that. As we saw in previous years, freshmen becoming sophomores and sophomores becoming juniors is what sets some Kentucky teams apart from others. The Harrison twins were much maligned during their first year as’ Cats, but they were heroes in their second year. Tyler Ulis became an All-American in his sophomore campaign. Nick Richards went from a freshman and a very unproductive second year to a candidate for SEC Player of the Year as a junior. Being able to develop talent has been a milestone in the management of Coach Calipari, and when he manages to combine that with elite talent, the result was a success.
As I mentioned, guessing who’s going back to Kentucky after any season is a silly mission. However, for the sake of discussion, let’s all just play together. It seems extremely likely that Devin Askew will return for his second season. He never expected to be an e-done after reclassifying to the 2020 Class. After missing the start of the season due to a calf injury, I hope Keion Brooks will remain for another year as well. Lance Ware and Jacob Toppin are almost certain to return. That leaves Dontaie Allen and Cam’Ron Fletcher. At that point, I personally feel that Allen is coming back. If he were to transfer, he could have done it during the semester, when he was not yet having opportunities on the court. Instead, he worked hard and won a role in which he would excel for the rest of his time in Lexington. As for Fletcher, I have no idea about that. Whether he returns or not, it doesn’t matter much because he obviously contributed very little this season.
If Kentucky returns a core of Devin Askew, Dontaie Allen, Keion Brooks, Jacob Toppin and Lance Ware, I think it would be a fantastic start to turn things around next season. Returning five quality rotation players is not something that happened during Coach Calipari’s time with the Wildcats. When you add this return core to a very good recruiting class, although it is not currently an elite group, the UK can be a powerhouse again. In addition, for those who count at home, this would give Kentucky only nine players on scholarships, leaving plenty of room for an additional major recruit or team to access the transfer portal once again.
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Talking about the new recruiting class, what is 2021 like today? Well, it is the fourth place in the country and the best in the SEC. Five-star striker Damion Collins, the country’s No. 11 player, is the class title as a type of Isaiah Jackson player. He’s offensive raw, but an excellent kick blocker and rebound with extremely long arms. If Jackson really leaves Kentucky after this season, I don’t see the ‘Cats losing pace by putting Collins in his place next year.
The other two high school players currently in Kentucky’s recruiting class are four-star striker Bryce Hopkins and four-star point guard Nolan Hickman. Hopkins, who has already been committed to Louisville, is a skilled “four” with a special talent for scoring basketball. He’s not necessarily a big 3-point shooting threat at this point (I can hear the collective sighs from the fan base as I type this), but he can really fill in other ways. He is a good passer and has the ability to handle the ball after hitting it. Hopkins is ranked 27th in the class.
Hickman, who is in 31st place in the general ranking and as the number 4 point guard, is long and athletic, with great general breeding ability. I see Coach Cal playing against him and Askew side by side on the defensive court next season. Hickman is also a very good defender, something that cannot be said about many guards leaving school. Based on my assessment of him, Nolan Hickman would be the best guard on the Kentucky list if he were on campus right now. This is partly an accusation of how players who are already in Lexington have played this season, but it still gives you some confidence that he will be ready to contribute immediately.
Finally, the ‘Cats have already added West Virginia big shot Oscar Tshiebwe from the transfer portal. The pre-season selection of First Team All-Big 12 averaged 11.2 points and 9.3 rebounds as a freshman and scored 8.5 points to go along with 7.8 rebounds in 10 games for coach Bob Huggins before to enter the portal. Tshiebwe, who chose the Mountaineers over the Wildcats the first time, is an extremely physical presence on the lower block. He plays with an uninterrupted engine and will be unforgiving in the offensive and defensive glass.
I like how things look for the future, but there is still a glaring weakness in the shooting range ahead which absolutely must be addressed. This makes Brandin Podziemski, a Wisconsin gunkeeper, a priority for Coach Calipari as he completes the recruiting class. If the ‘Cats manage to catch Podziemski and someone like guard Jaden Hardy, who is second in the class, things will get better next season.
There are many built-in excuses for the lack of success this season. A very difficult schedule without the typical cupcake games. Lack of pre-season friendly displays and games. The technical committee spent less time in the off-season with the team. Coronavirus is about canceling games and creating a very different practice structure. The list could go on and on. However, this is the University of Kentucky. A 5-10 record is never acceptable, regardless of the circumstances or who they are playing.
Many fans want to modernize the attack, but this will happen through recruitment. The current squad is not really able to play a modern style of basketball. They just don’t have the skill set. In addition, Coach Calipari’s “archaic” system has worked at an extremely high level until this season. We may not all be excited about Sweet 16’s or Elite 8’s, but the Wildcats have continued to be as successful in the regular and post-season as any team in America since their last trip to Final 4.
This Kentucky team is not very good, but with the opportunity to age a year and develop with the technical team, they will return ready to compete at a high level in the 2021-2022 season. There are still two or three vacancies to be filled through recruitment and / or the transfer portal that can catapult expectations back to previous peaks.
Coach Calipari and basketball from Kentucky aren’t going anywhere. This train will continue to run and the victories will accumulate. There are certainly issues to be addressed, but the overall outlook for the program’s future remains very bright.