The Baseball Hall of Fame will announce its 2021 class on Tuesday night. Notable names like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen are among the players on this year’s ballot, but it is possible that no player will be elected this year. The full 2021 ballot can be seen here.
The rules: A player is eligible to be placed on the ballot after five years of retirement. Players who obtain at least 75 percent of the ballots returned from qualified BBWAA voters gain entry to the Hall of Fame. Those who are below 5% fall in the vote. Those between 5 and 75 percent can remain in the poll for up to 10 years. BBWAA members who are active and in good standing for at least 10 years can vote anywhere from zero to 10 players each year.
And here are the details for the selection show:
Baseball Hall of Fame Class 2021 Announcement
- Time: 18h Eastern Time
- Meeting: Tuesday, January 26
- television channel: MLB Network (coverage starts at 3 pm Eastern time)
- Live broadcast: fuboTV (try it free)
Below are six stories to watch as vote totals are revealed Tuesday night.
(NOTE: when talking about “early returns”, I am usually referring to the indispensable vote tracker of Ryan Thibodaux and his team.)
1. Penultimate chance for a big name trio
The top three candidates on the ballot this year among the remnants are Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds. The restart on the field, in terms of statistics, says Clemens and Bonds are among the best players of all time, while Schilling is a legitimate Hall of Fame.
And yet, here we are.
Bonds and Clemens are both linked to the use of drugs to improve performance, in addition to being accused of serious indiscretions off the field. Schilling had less support in his early voting years, and as things dragged on, he made his way incredibly difficult with fiery rhetoric.
Last year, Schilling got 70% of the vote, while Clemens was at 61 and Bonds at 60.7.
Clemens and Bonds’ modest gains in recent years suggest that they will fall short of expectations again. Schilling has already shown losses this time from people who voted for him.
The best bet is that none of the three will get it right, judging by the initial returns.
This is the ninth time in the vote for the three, preparing them for a final round in the 2021 vote.
If they get it wrong, nobody is likely to succeed …
2. It can be an empty class
There is rarely a vote in which BBWAA elects no one, but it is not without precedent. The last time there was no player voted for this method was in 2013. This also happened, in reverse chronology, in 1996, 1971, 1965, 1960, 1958, 1950 and 1945.
This election has a very good chance of joining that group, with no players getting 75 percent of the vote.
Note that this would not mean a totally empty ceremony in Cooperstown this summer, assuming the COVID-19 situation is in control enough to have one. That’s because the 2020 ceremony was canceled last July and that class has Derek Jeter, Larry Walker, Ted Simmons and the late Marvin Miller still being consecrated this year.
Still, if there is no BBWAA class for 2021, it would be the first completely empty class since 1960. I have already expanded the story behind it here.
3. Will any newbie survive?
Let’s keep in mind that it’s incredibly difficult to just get on the Hall of Fame ballot before diving into the sentence I’m about to write. A player has to be in the main championships for 10 years and even then, he has no guarantee of surviving. Dan Uggla, CJ Wilson and Adam LaRoche were among the players eligible for this vote who were excluded. Again, keep this in mind when I say the following:
This first-year class was one of the weakest we have seen in recent memory. It is possible that every newcomer becomes a complete.
Early returns suggest that there is a chance that Mark Buehrle will stay above 5%, although he has little hope of reaching 75%, even if he turns 10. He’s probably the only one with a chance to stay for the second year and even he can miss the cut.
Torii Hunter and Tim Hudson also saw enough initial support to reach the 5% mark, although the money is falling short of them.
Aramis Ramirez, Shane Victorino, AJ Burnett, Barry Zito, Nick Swisher, Dan Haren, Michael Cuddyer and LaTroy Hawkins will certainly fall short of their only chance. To reiterate, this is far from an insult. It is a great compliment to their admirable careers being at the polls.
4. Who has an impulse?
Now we are past the failure and the fall of the guys and move on to what the returns mean for the years to come. For Hall of Fame addicts like me, this is the fun part.
It is possible that the following players will have enough momentum to believe that Cooperstown is within reach.
- Scott Rolen is in its fourth year at the polls and looks set to break 50 percent after debuting with just 10.2 percent. He got a touch of over 35 percent last year and a move to over 50 with six years left means he’s a good bet to do that eventually.
- Todd Helton was 16.5% and after 29.2% in the first two years. Especially with Walker now and, hopefully, the stigma of Coors Field starting to wear off a bit, look for another big leap. If it goes over 50 or even just over 40 percent, the chances of getting it soon will be great. I doubt he needs all 10 years, but still keep an eye on the percentage.
- On your first three chances, Billy Wagner it was between 10.2 and 11.1 percent. Then it went to 16.7 and 31.7. This is his sixth attempt, so it will still be a difficult task, but another big gain ahead of the percentage would give Wagner a real chance here with four years left. Again, keep an eye on this one. I would say that he needs to see at least 40 and probably even closer to 45 percent to feel optimistic about the consecration.
- Gary Sheffield it went through five voting cycles without even getting 14% of the vote, but jumped to 30.5% last year. He only has three chances left, so it’s still an uphill battle, but reaching 40 would be a reason for hope – and we all know that “hope is a good thing”, as Red once learned.
- Andruw JonesThe first two years showed 7.3 and then 7.5 percent, but it rose to 19.4 percent last year and it looks like it is prepared to take another significant leap. With six years remaining and a possibly growing percentage of votes, seeing something 30-35 percent here would lead me to believe that he is on the right track.
- Andy Pettitte went from 9.9 percent to 11.3 percent and needs a much bigger boost than moving forward. He is more of an “old school” candidate than many here and that means he may end up looking much better than we have seen on the ballots made publicly so far. If he breaks 20% here, he is a legitimate candidate going forward.
- Bobby Abreu he got just 5.5 percent of the vote in his first attempt last year, but there seems to be a little more movement towards him. Keep an eye here. Could it jump to close to 15 percent? In that case, the odds move to realistic long-shot territory.
5. Who is losing strength?
On the other hand, Omar Vizquel seems to be missing out on what appeared to be a Hall of Fame trajectory in the vote. In just three years, Vizquel has gone from 37 to 42.8 to 52.6 percent, but he is showing a reasonable number of votes lost so far. Vizquel is currently under investigation by the Major League Baseball on domestic violence charges.
6. And who is stagnant?
The following players appear to be only in the water until their 10 years of voting are over.
- Manny Ramirez has two suspensions related to the PED of its game days and in four chances on the ballot it only increased its percentage from 23.8 to 28.2. There seems to be a plateau there for players connected to PEDs and, as he is the only one on this PED suspended ballot, it is likely that this is just happening as a formality. If it goes up more than 35%, I will pay more attention.
- Jeff Kent over six cycles it never cracked 18.1%, but rose to 27.5% last year. The first returns suggest that he will not make another big fall, however, this is only two years away.
- Sammy Sosa is in its ninth vote and last year it reached just 13.9%. It may go up, but it is not getting close to the required 75 percent.
Here it is. Now you’re ready to see the full results of the vote on Tuesday night with a good idea of what it all means in addition to the rudimentary “who’s in and who’s out?” We will have full coverage of the consequences after the vote is revealed.