National Review
The next global reaction against China
The following is an excerpt adapted from Helen Raleigh’s new book, Backlash: How China’s Aggression Has Backfired. The leader of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is the most powerful leader in Communist China since President Mao. However, Xi’s strong man outward image is a veneer of his inner insecurity. When he came to power in late 2012, China’s economy had slowed from double-digit growth to single-digit growth; the mass of the working-age population, which was the engine of China’s economic growth, began to decline. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank based in Washington, DC, projects that by 2030, “China will complete its increasingly smaller workforce by hiring workers from abroad”. At the same time, according to Mark Haas, professor of political science at Duquesne University, “China in 2050 alone will have more than 329 million people over the age of 65”. Consequently, China is expected to be the first major economy that will age before reaching widespread prosperity. Without its demographic dividend and an aging population, China’s economic growth will slow further even as the government needs to maintain its growing middle class to demand a level of political freedom compatible with its newfound wealth. The aging population would also force the government to allocate more national resources to care for the elderly and social services, which means that there will be less resources to compete with the United States. This is probably one of the most important reasons why Xi feels he must abandon the so-called strategic patience guidance issued by Deng Xiaoping, China’s supreme leader from 1978 to 1997, who instructed his comrades to wait for his moment and avoid any confrontation with forces powerful external forces until China was in a much stronger position economically and militarily. Xi, however, believes that China cannot afford to wait any longer. It must replace the liberal world order with a world order centered on China before China’s population gets too old and the Chinese economy becomes very stagnant. However, instead of promoting economic reform and opening up more sectors to foreign investment and competition to strengthen its economy, Xi chose to hide China’s weaknesses and exaggerate its economic strengths. He emphasizes self-reliance and the use of China’s resources to stimulate “national champions”, or state-owned companies that can compete with global leaders in strategic sectors. Xi feels that nationalism is his new asset, something he can use to motivate, excite and unite a billion people while strengthening the CCP’s government over them. Others say that their inward-looking nationalist policies are driving China into its own middle-income trap – in which China’s level of development stalls before it reaches the heights of other modern industrial nations – which Xi and his predecessors tried very hard to avoid. However, the more the Chinese economy slows down, the more Xi feels the need to project an image of a strong man abroad and, mainly, at home. As Wang Gungwu and Zheng Yongnian, two Chinese scholars, wrote in China and the New International Order, this dynamic has deep roots in Chinese history: “China’s internal order was so closely related to its international order that one could not survive for long time without the other; when barbarians were not submissive abroad, rebels could come more easily. Most dynasties collapsed under the twin strokes of internal disorder and external calamity, nei luan wai huang, that is, domestic rebellion and foreign invasion. ”Xi is well aware that he is vulnerable to internal rebellion. He expelled more than 1.5 million government officials, military leaders and party elites. Its trade war with the United States is deeply unpopular within China because it has caused economic problems such as rising unemployment, the closure of factories and the displacement of the global supply chain outside China. Xi knows very well that, if he shows any signs of weakness, he could end up like his political rival, Bo Xilai – a prince who currently languishes in a famous Chinese prison for high-ranking party officials. In addition, Xi saw former US President Obama as a “weak” leader who led a nation that was on the road to inevitable decline, which opened up an unprecedented opportunity for China. Xi also has certain milestones he wants to achieve: in 2021, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party, and in 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of Communist China. Xi wants to do something big to consolidate his place in history when he reaches those milestones. So, in his mind, the era of hiding strength and the waiting time is over. He wants to show the world a new set of policies, actions and attitudes that match China’s powerful status. For a while, Xi was succeeding. Internally, he ruthlessly repressed religious believers, political dissidents, party officials and business elites. He also built a state of mass surveillance that made the dystopian nightmare imagined by George Orwell in 1984 a reality. Internationally, he imposed his strong will on companies and nations, large and small, through his exclusive project “One Belt and One Road”. In Xi’s view, the more other countries become economically dependent on China, the more he can dominate them peacefully without having to use force. One commentator noted that Xi “looks like a clenched fist. At home, he is squeezing hard to assert his control. To the outside world, he is an aggressive force determined to do what he wants. Xi’s fist has conditioned many nations, including Western democracies, to believe that China is stronger than it really is and that China’s global dominance is inevitable. Therefore, few are willing to challenge China’s human rights violations at home and its assertive behavior abroad. But even the most powerful emperor can fly very close to the sun. Divergent voices within China are getting louder, while the global reaction against China reached new heights in 2019. Then the coronavirus outbreak in 2020 stripped the facade of Xi’s powerful image, revealed profound flaws in the CCP’s dictatorial political system , caused immense anger and frustration among Chinese people, brought serious damage to China’s prestigious international image and interrupted China’s seemingly unstoppable rise. As prominent Hong Kong businessman Jimmy Lai wrote: “The more Mr. Xi follows his authoritarian agenda, the more distrust he will sow at home and abroad. Far from making Beijing the world’s leading superpower, its policies will prevent China from taking its place of honor in a peaceful, modern and integrated world. ” Xi misinterpreted the situation, exaggerated and his aggressive policies at home and abroad backfired, proving the saying: Those who the gods want to destroy, they first go crazy.