After his first defeat at the 2021 season conference against Missouri last weekend, Alabama Crimson Tide (15-5, 10-1 SEC, NET: 9, Kenpom: 8) will travel tonight to the From others Columbia for a battle with Frank Martin’s South Carolina Gamecocks (5-7, 3-5 SEC, NET: 108, Kenpom: 84) The Tide will try to prevent consecutive losses from becoming a losing streak, as we are now in a week in February, the doomed month of sadness in recent years for Tide Hoops fans.
In fact, this is the first real hardship the Nate Oats team has experienced since the calendar moved to 2021. Maré had to endure a few injuries at a time, but now these health problems are being compounded by two losses in a week , after Alabama went over a month without a single defeat. In that sense, Alabama is at a kind of crossroads. Let’s be honest, the attack hasn’t been a good one recently. We all knew that the shootout would return to average after an incredible run in January, but the attack now looks totally broken: wrong lay-ups at the edge, too many turns, insufficient movement, etc. The teams are being physical with Tide and over-playing the tracks, as well as taking the guys off the three-point line and basically challenging them to get into a disputed or *Sigh* take a medium sized photo.
In other words, the teams adapted to Oats’ style. Alabama needs to learn how to strike back. Defensively, 2nd place Crimson Tide is still bringing that, which is incredibly encouraging. But the wounds of Herb Jones and Jordan Bruner really sink the tide when a big man like Jeremiah Tilmon shows up. Bruner is still weeks away from a comeback, and who knows what kind of game he’ll be in when he returns, so Alabama really has to figure out a way to mask this weakness. Honestly, I liked our pairs in the post, whenever the team committed to it; I wouldn’t mind seeing more of that. Defensive recovery still stinks, but I don’t know how to fix it until Bruner returns.
With all that said, Crimson Tide is still three games up in the SEC over second place in the Missouri Tigers, and Alabama is still a two-seed consensus in the projected bracket of the NCAA Tournament. But Oats will have to find a cure for what ails Tide, if Alabama wants to get in March by playing its best basketball. He will also have to do this while managing the litany of Herb’s injuries that have accumulated and really slowed down the SEC’s Player of the Year candidate.
Fortunately, Tide has finally reached the easy part of the conference schedule. Alabama will play with four consecutive bottom-feeders at the conference over the next two weeks: South Carolina, Georgia, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt. It really couldn’t have timed better. However, as Tide Hoops fans know, winning is never easy in February, however bad the opponent is.
Can Alabama take care of business while discovering things and managing injury problems?
Five starting
POINT 6’4 Jermaine Cousinard (11.2 PPG, 3.8 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.4 SPG)
GUARD 6’2 Seventh Woods (5.4 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.3 SPG)
GUARD 6’6 AJ Lawson (17.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.5 SPG)
WING 6’6 Justin Manaya (7.8 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.0 APG)
POST 6’11 Wildens Levegue (5.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG)
Dude, that team from the Final Four 2017 certainly looks like it was a long time ago right now, right? Gamecocks haven’t even sniffed the NCAA tournament since, and this year will be no different for Frank Martin’s team. To be fair, South Carolina was hit by COVID as hard as any other team in the country, as they have had several stops at stake now. So, they played only 12 games in total, while Alabama will be playing its 12th conference I play tonight.
But the ‘Cocks do not lack talent in the initial unit. AJ Lawson was a top recruit who has been a cornerstone of South Carolina for the past few seasons. Throughout his career, he was rated Kira Lewis, due to the combination of similar size / skills and recruitment ratings in the same class of 2018. He will never be the main handler of the ball like Kira was (10.4% AST%; almost a 1: 1 rotation assistance ratio), but it marks the ball well (43.8% / 36.3% / 65.3%), which is always a challenge with its length.
Next to him on the court are Cousinard and Woods. Cousinard came out of nowhere last season to become the owner of the Gamecocks and, although he has his problems with turnovers, his 23.0% AST% make up for it. He has a lot of athletic ability, but his pitch is not good (29.5% / 28.8% / 52.5%). Woods was a five-star recruit who originally played in North Carolina for a few seasons, but he failed to live up to his hype outside of high school. The 40th ranked recruit in the 2016 class spent most of his time at UNC at the bank, so he decided to move to Columbia, SC. Unfortunately, he didn’t have much success in Lower Carolina either. He did not throw the ball well (39.7% / 16.7% / 66.7%), has a negative assistance relationship and is a negative defender (102.1 DRtg).
In court, veteran Justin Manaya has been around forever. He is a strong player, of good size and a very solid versatile wing (42.4% / 28.0% / 63.6%; 12.0% REB%). Levegue is trying to follow in the footsteps of recent South Carolina greats like Chris Silva and Maik Kotsar, but the sophomore still has a way to go to get there. He recovers with a 16.2% clip, but his score and defense still need a lot of work.
Off the bench
GUARD 6’2 Trae Hannibal (4.8 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 1.4 APG)
GUARD 6’4 TJ Moss (3.0 PPG, 1.3 APG, 1.1 RPG)
WING 6’5 Keyshawn Bryant (14.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 0.8 APG, 0.8 SPG, 1.2 BPG)
WING 6’6 Trey Anderson (3.0 PPG, 1.2 RPG)
WING 6’7 Jalyn McCreary (4.6 PPG, 3.3 RPG)
If you’ve watched South Carolina with Frank Martin at the helm over the years, you know exactly what to expect from them. They will be very physical in defense and will attack the glass relentlessly. Absences are almost encouraged. Because of that, Martin always has a ton of guys to spin in and out of the bank. It’s like a war of attrition when you play against a Frank Martin team.
Most of the time, Martin isn’t exactly turning on the most talented players on the planet. They don’t recruit exactly well in South Carolina. Keyshawn Bryant is the only exception. A bank player in name only, Bryant is probably the second best player on the team. Elite athlete, the 6’5 winger plays A lot of bigger than it is listed, able to put any defender on a poster with a monster jam. He is a stats sheet stuffer who plays fast and spends most of his time flying around the edge.
- Time, time, time. Alabama has actually slowed down in recent weeks. Kentucky, Oklahoma and Missouri have managed to substantially reduce the pace of the Tide. Tired legs are undoubtedly a part of that problem, especially with the injuries Alabama faced, but the team has to be able to dictate the pace of the game if they want to continue playing at the high level they were in January. The good news is that, unlike most years, this South Carolina team is not good at defense and has also tried to increase the pace to compensate for these defensive weaknesses. So if they choose not to slow the game down, Alabama will have a good opportunity to return to its high levels tonight.
- Free throws. Although South Carolina is not as good in defense as a Frank Martin team usually is, they are as physical as ever and can still kick their opponents. If Alabama manages to get on the track consistently, the guys will have plenty of opportunities in the charity band. The Tide absolutely has to do that tonight. On the other hand, South Carolina is the 326th in the country in percentage of free throws. Of course, every time I mention something like that, the opponent inevitably goes 23/26 off the line.
- Relief for Herb. At the time of writing, Nate Oats is still considering sitting with Herb at tonight’s game. I’ve been saying for a few weeks that the guy needs a real break. I understand why we kept him out there – it was an incredibly difficult and important stretch of the season, and while he is not at risk of further injury, why not? – but if Alabama wants to peak in March, Herb needs to heal now. If he sits down for significant portions, or the whole game, the guys will really need to step up. Jahvon Quinerly will be the only true ball handler, and Alex Reese, James Rojas and Juwan Gary will have to continue making their best representations of low-block players.
With just over a month to go before the SEC tournament starts, Alabama badly needs a game to get it right. The good news is that the next two weeks will be full of opportunities against (what should be) defeated opponents. With the loss to Missouri open, there is a bit of intrigue in the SEC’s regular season championship race, so I hope Maré can get rid of that ‘L’ and start accumulating some wins to put it out of reach.
Most importantly, though, Alabama just needs to heal and discover some identity problems in crime. This starts tonight in South Carolina, let’s see what Nate Oats has prepared.
The game starts at 5:30 pm CST and will be broadcast on the SEC Network.