Authorities see worrying signs, but say it is too early to predict all the effects of the holiday

Covid-19 cases are on the rise in Vermont and the Northeast, but it is difficult to say whether the holidays caused a real increase in the state, officials said at a news conference on Tuesday.

Cases increased by 20% last week among Vermont neighbors, while testing declined. The rate of regional positivity rose more than 10% last week, said Secretary of the Department of Financial Regulation Michael Pieciak, who presented the state report. Vermont’s positivity rate was 2.8% on Tuesday.

Governor Phil Scott said New England, New York and Quebec reported a total of 170,000 new cases during the holiday.

“These numbers alone are worrisome,” said Scott. “But it is not just the cases, because the rates of positivity in our neighboring states are also increasing.”

Vermont itself had 746 new Covid cases last week, down from 586 the week before. But that can be a remnant of test and reporting delays during the holiday. Pieciak said it was only 11 days since Christmas and only a few days since New Year.

The state reported 165 cases on Tuesday, above the seven-day average of 106, said Dr. Mark Levine, Commissioner for the Department of Health. Deaths total 149; on Monday, the state added four deaths since September that it considered “probable” because of Covid-19.

More people traveled to Vermont during the holidays than at any other time during the pandemic, but the total number of travelers was still well below 2019 levels, Pieciak said.

The state model shows that if Vermont has a holiday-related increase in line with what other states experienced with Thanksgiving, the number of Thanksgiving cases is expected to increase in the coming weeks, but will still remain within capacity of the state’s medical system, said Pieciak.

17,650 doses of vaccine administered

The state administered 17,650 first doses of the Covid vaccine, including about 5,000 last week, said Levine.

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That’s more than half of the 30,000 doses that Vermont received before last week, well above the national average of about 28% of vaccines distributed, according to data collected by The New York Times.

Vermont also compares well to other states when it comes to the percentage of its population vaccinated. So far, 2,557 doses have been distributed to 100,000 Vermonters, the largest in the Northeast, said Pieciak.

Officials said the delay between vaccines shipped and vaccines delivered is partly a result of the overburdened medical system and partly a result of uncertainty about how many doses of vaccine will arrive in Vermont.

“From our point of view, we will intensify our efforts to distribute vaccines as soon as we receive them,” said Scott. “And it would be useful if we knew what the supply chain is like and how much we would get each week on a consistent basis, so that we could intensify our efforts and continue to give vaccines consistently.”

Scott said there was also a time lag between the time the state receives the vaccine and distribution, as well as a three-day time lag between the time pharmacies distribute the vaccine and notification to the state.

Levine said that if a shipment arrives in the state on Tuesday, the clinics will be scheduled for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, but that has not yet appeared in the data. “It may seem like we’re late, but that’s the reality of how you schedule the administration of a treatment like this,” he said.

The state provided the first dose of the vaccine to about half of all emergency medical workers and a quarter of health workers, said Levine.

The state expects vaccinations to be completed this week for qualified nursing staff and patients, and will move to assisted living and other long-term care facilities, said Mike Smith, secretary of the Human Services Agency.

Process by age group

Levine said the Vermont Vaccine Advisory Board has officially recommended that the next phase of the vaccine prioritize older Vermonters. He recommended that the state vaccinate people aged 75 or older first, then those aged 65 to 74, followed by younger Vermonters with chronic health conditions. Federal guidelines are more complicated and state officials have decided that the age group procedure is more efficient and easier to understand.

Given the slow implementation of the vaccine, Britain is prioritizing the first doses of the vaccine, leaving the second injection – which gives greater protection – for a date later than previously planned. The second doses should be administered three weeks after the first for the Pfizer vaccine and four weeks for the Modern vaccine, according to the CDC.

While some in the United States are discussing this possibility, Levine said he disagrees with this practice, calling it an “off-label” use of the vaccine that leaves many doubts about its effectiveness.

Britain is also struggling with another problem that may soon occur in Vermont: a new strain of the virus that is more transmissible than the one currently circulating in the population.

Levine said the strain, against which the vaccine will still be effective, made its first appearance in Saratoga Springs, New York, and is expected to reach Vermont.

The state may have to redouble efforts to fight the virus, he said. The governor said he wants to wait and see what happens in other states before deciding to close the classroom.

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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are testing samples from the states to detect where the most virulent strain of the coronavirus has spread. The states of Georgia, Colorado, California, Florida and New York have reported cases of B.1.1.7. variant, which scientists say will likely become Covid’s dominant form.

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17,650 doses of vaccine administered

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Process by age group

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