Think of the main threats to South Korea, and its nuclear-armed neighbor, North Korea, may come to mind. But a more subtle risk to South Korea’s future well-being lies within its borders: a declining and rapidly aging population.
The concern was highlighted this weekend with the release of census data that showed that South Korea’s population fell in 2020 for the first time. The declining number of newborns has been outpaced by an increasing number of deaths, according to census data released by the South Korean government.
For years, population experts have warned that demographic trends in South Korea, like those in Japan, show declining growth – a bad sign to replenish the workforce and care for retirees and other older people as they become a larger portion of society. South Korea’s new data, while not a surprise, is worrying for a country that in recent decades has become one of Asia’s economic and cultural dynamos.
Census data from the Ministry of Interior and Security showed that South Korea’s population totaled 51,829,023 on December 31, down 20,838 since the end of 2019. There were 275,815 births, down 10.65 percent in 2019, and 307,764 deaths, an increase of 3.1 percent over 2019. The ministry expressed alarm over the implications, saying that “amid the rapid decline in the birth rate, the government needs to make fundamental changes to its relevant policies”.
It was unclear to what extent the coronavirus pandemic may be exacerbating the population problem. The approximately 1,000 deaths in South Korea attributable to Covid-19 did not affect the basic outcome. But the Bank of Korea, in a regular economic assessment released last week, said the pandemic would “have a negative impact on marriage and the country’s birth rate, leading to an accelerated aging population”.
Successive South Korean governments have sought to stem the decline in the birth rate by offering financial incentives for couples to have more children.
But an increasing number of young South Koreans are still choosing to remain single. When they get married, they do it later in life and usually have only one child, or none at all. The trend is rooted in an economic slowdown that has disproportionately affected young adults in South Korea, who say they are intimidated by expensive housing and rising unemployment.
“If I have to choose between having a career and raising a child, I have no doubt that I will choose my career,” said Lim Yu-jin, a university student in Cheongju, south of Seoul. “I will not allow parenting to block my career.”
Lee Sang-lin, a researcher at the government-funded Korean Institute of Health and Social Affairs, said that young South Koreans “have no confidence that their lives will improve in the future.”
The latest government incentive package was introduced just a few weeks ago by President Moon Jae-in, offering monthly subsidies of 300,000 won, or about $ 274, for every newborn and child under 1 year old. 2022. Expectant couples would receive a cash bonus of 2 million won starting next year, along with increased medical and other benefits.
Although Mr. Moon’s package was an acknowledgment that previous incentives had failed, it was unclear whether increasing financial rewards for having children would help.
Other trends in South Korea strongly discourage births. They include the growing opposition among women to men’s expectations of child rearing in what remains a patriarchal society. More women in South Korea, rebelling against sexism deeply rooted in the country, are renouncing marriage and motherhood in search of education and professional careers.
“In short, our country is not a good place to live, so it is not preferable to pass the burden on to our children,” The Korea Times said in an editorial last month about the ineffectiveness of what it called gradual government attempts to reverse falling births.
South Korea’s fertility rate, a measure of the average number of children per woman, is the lowest in the world. Data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which includes South Korea, show that its fertility rate gradually dropped from 2.9 in 1979 to 0.9 in 2019. Meteorologists expect it to fall further.
A fertility rate of 2.1 is considered by demographers to be the limit necessary to replenish a country’s population.
Over time, falling birth rates can spell deep economic difficulties.
With fewer young workers, employers are unable to fill vacancies. Retirees make up a growing segment of the population, each time smaller, with less government resources to help them. The suicide rate among South Koreans aged 65 and over is one of the highest.
The report was contributed by Choe Sang-Hun from Seoul, South Korea.