A plaque explaining the mask requirements for a shuffleboard establishment in Tampa, Florida, December 19.
Photograph:
Ivy Ceballo / Zuma Press
The new coronavirus is about to make its last great resistance, so get ready for the toughest six weeks so far. But things will get better as spring approaches. Stay safe and try to avoid being the last person at Covid-19 to get sick.
The coming year will still require caution, but Covid’s fear will not dominate life after winter. The prevalence will drop dramatically in the spring and summer. The virus can reappear in the fall, but it can be a manageable threat with the right precautions.
That said, relegating the pandemic to 2020 will require some changes. The virus is likely to become endemic, meaning it will continue to circulate, but at a much lower level than the epidemic. If we are prudent, next fall may look like an especially virulent flu season, when vaccines don’t go well. Most of the activities that Americans enjoy will resume, although some of them require precautions.
This starts with changes in the way people go to work. It should be frowned upon to go to work sick and try to “face” a cold. Flu and Covid tests will be widespread with home tests. Many people may still prefer to wear masks in public places, but they will not be mandatory. We will be more attentive to internal ventilation and crowds in confined spaces.
These steps will have benefits that go beyond Covid. They also slow the spread of other respiratory infections – including the flu, which claims a large number of victims each year. The flu caused more than 40 million symptomatic diseases and 650,000 hospitalizations in the 2018-19 season, according to estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A 2018 study in Vaccine magazine estimates economic damage, including reduced productivity, at $ 11.2 billion a year. This figure can be conservative; some models claim that the burden reaches $ 87 billion a year.
The priorities for next year will be to distribute vaccines widely, hopefully to all eligible Americans by spring, while continuing to collect information on safety and benefits. It will also be essential to provide easy access to vaccination – preparing drugstores to offer Covid vaccine as flu vaccines. If a high percentage of the most vulnerable populations are vaccinated, this would dramatically reduce the risk of Covid. The benefits will be even greater if, as expected, vaccines not only reduce the risk of severe symptoms, but also reduce the chance of infection and spread.
Next year will be an adjustment to a new normal. Society will not return to its 2019 strategy for dealing with respiratory pathogens, but that is not a bad thing. The response to the pandemic was plagued by a minority that ruled out Covid’s risks and fought measures like masks. This challenging stance will have to change for a normal appearance to return in 2021. But with sensible measures, drugs and vaccines, Covid can become a manageable risk.
Dr. Gottlieb is a resident member of the American Enterprise Institute and was commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, 2017-19. He serves on the boards of Pfizer and Illumina and is a partner in the venture capital firm New Enterprise Associates.
Wonder Land: Renowned epidemiologists have teamed up to write the “Greater Barrington Declaration”, which advocates a “Focused Protection” strategy on coronavirus control, and has already been signed by thousands of scientists. Images: Getty Composite: Mark Kelly
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Published in the December 28, 2020 print edition as ‘Covid Is Beginning Its Last Stand.’