I admit that when I saw the Braves-in-on-JT-Realmuto rumors, I had the same reaction as most people: well, this is clearly being invented by his agent, with the Braves’ happy help, so that the price / urgency of Phillies may increase.
This is * probably * all it is.
But two things have come down this morning that make me wonder if the Braves are really about to shake up the capture market in a really fundamental way. First, you have David O’Brien (local source) not fully discarding the idea of a real search for Realmuto:
Mailbag: Why Realmuto doesn’t make sense for the #Braves, unless….
Also, what’s going on with the ridiculous delay in DH’s decision, and where to Ender and those extra Braves to start. https://t.co/X658vuOE4o– David O’Brien (@DOBrienATL) January 22, 2021
That “unless” part is this:
One way to sign Realmuto could make sense would be if the Braves had a deal lined up to acquire a powerful left or third baseman in exchange for d’Arnaud, who obviously would not be kept as a $ 8 million reserve if they signed Realmuto.
But even in this scenario, signing a free agent to a nine-digit contract and making him one of the highest paid players in his position (if not the highest), does not fit Braves’ modus operandi, to say the least.
Having said all that, we return to the point about the famous Antopolous making unexpected moves. This would be a big change. Very large. But it is not yet clear how much validity there is in this rumor.
So you had an almost simultaneous comment from Jon Morosi, also about the possibility of Braves hiring Realmuto and making Travis d’Arnaud available for exchange:
If the #Braves sign JT Realmuto, they will surely find a market for Travis d’Arnaud in a year and $ 8 million. O #Angels – which have external depth of field – are a landing site for d’Arnaud. And the new GM of the Angels, Perry Minasian, is a close friend of Alex Anthopoulos. @MLBNetwork @MLB
– Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) January 22, 2021
To be sure, Braves could keep the two guys up given the likely presence of the designated hitter in the NL this year, but the Braves are still imagining themselves in the market for a big bat on third base or on the left field (depending on where Austin Riley plays) , so adding Realmuto AND keeping d’Arnaud AND adding another bat seems a lot.
So, if the Braves shocked everyone and dropped nine digits in Realmuto, they would immediately do crazy things for the capture market. On the one hand, they would have taken the top guy off the market without themselves being seen as a “catching needy” team that was a Realmuto suitor in the first place. That would make other bidders like Phillies or Blue Jays or Nationals or Angels or anyone else lurking now fighting for a different impact collector possible.
On the other hand, Braves would then be able to offer a relatively cheap one-year impact collector on the commercial market; no one anywhere expected Travis d’Arnaud to be available, so it would take him a minute to figure out where the Braves could sell him.
It is not difficult to see the potential impact on Willson Contreras’ market here, given the rumors that linked him to the Phillies, Marlins, Nationals and Angels.
My gut still says that the Braves are not really going to advance to Realmuto, and the Phillies will eventually do that. But this is certainly an interesting wrinkle.