Apple’s autonomous car strategy may stall

After weeks of confusion and contradictory news, it has almost been confirmed that Hyundai-Kia will begin manufacturing Apple’s mysterious autonomous electric vehicle in one of its factories in 2024. Or later. Or not at all.

As with almost all news coming from Apple, the report is shrouded in secrecy, unconfirmed facts and many quotes from anonymous sources. But this latest news has some key points that, if true, paint a clearer picture of Apple’s plans to drive autonomously – and leave many more questions unanswered about the company’s future.

Making the Apple Car

Apple’s autonomous car is said to be manufactured at the Kia assembly plant in West Point, Georgia, in 2024. But “people familiar with the negotiations between Apple and Hyundai-Kia say the eventual launch could be delayed,” according to CNBC. And Apple is negotiating with other automakers too, so the whole business could fall apart, or Hyundai could become one of several companies that will make the Apple Car.

Hyundai is definitely a good candidate for the task. The Georgia facility has the capacity to deliver up to 100,000 vehicles in the first year, according to a source who spoke with Wall Street Newspaper.

In addition to capacity, Hyundai also has a lot of experience in both electric vehicles and autonomous cars. The automaker already has a joint venture with the automotive technology company Aptiv to develop and test autonomous vehicles and a robot taxi service. Hyundai also made a high-level acquisition of the robotics company Boston Dynamics last year, which put it in control of a company with a lot of talent and experience in computer vision and mobility.

On the other hand, Hyundai would benefit from a deal they say is worth $ 3 billion, and may also have access to Apple’s expertise in artificial intelligence, battery technology and lidars.

The only thing that makes the deal risky for Hyundai is Apple’s requirement to have full control of the car’s hardware and software. This left Hyundai a little reluctant to close the deal and become a third-party manufacturer of Apple. According to an unidentified Hyundai executive who spoke to Reuters in late January: “We are not a company that makes cars for third parties.”

Another executive said that such a deal would make Hyundai Foxconn of the Apple car. Foxconn, which you may not have heard of, is one of several companies that make Apple iPhones. Foxconn does not sell phones. It leases its supply chain and production capacity. Hyundai, on the other hand, is an automaker. He will have a conflict of interest with a thriving Apple Car, which would undermine his own plans to become a leader in electric and self-driving vehicles.

In the long run, the two companies will go on a collision course. This can lead to business failure. Alternatively, Apple may decide to turn the Apple Car into an Apple-Hyundai joint venture, which would be the first time for the technology company, which has a tendency to maintain a total monopoly on all hardware and software. Or, if the Apple Car business turns out to be very serious and promising, Apple may consider acquiring or merging with Hyundai or another automaker. This would mark an even greater shift for Apple and the technology industry in general, which has gradually invaded all sectors.

Autonomous steering technology

A person who spoke to CNBC said: “The first Apple Cars will not be designed to have a driver”. This contrasts with the strategy of most other companies, whose autonomous cars still have a steering wheel and driver’s seat.

In a way, it makes sense for Apple to develop a fully autonomous vehicle, also called a level 5 autonomous car. Current autonomous car systems are level 3, meaning that the car can drive alone under certain conditions and the driver human must be alert and take control whenever AI fails. The problem with level 3 is that it is an incomplete technology. Every company working on level 3 autonomous cars also has backup drivers sitting behind the wheel, ready to step in and take control when AI stumbles into a situation it cannot control.

But level 3 autonomous driving is a mess because the boundaries between human and autonomous driving are blurred. Human drivers tend to be distracted when AI is driving the car and do not react quickly enough, which can lead to fatal incidents.

By becoming fully autonomous, Apple will be avoiding legal complications and accountability for human errors. But the problem is that we don’t know when and whether we will achieve fully autonomous driving technology that is acceptable on public roads. There are technical, legal and social obstacles that must be overcome before we see cars without drivers sharing the road with human drivers.

Apple knows that too. “They will be autonomous electric vehicles designed to operate without a driver and focusing on the last mile,” the source told CNBC.

This means that the Apple car must be driven in specific areas where driving conditions are much more predictable and easier to handle for AI systems. But then, it wouldn’t make sense for consumers to own an Apple car, because they couldn’t use it to drive to work or home or to go on vacation. Instead, Apple would have to set up its own robot taxi service in selected areas or partner with another company that does. In either case, this would mark another major shift for Apple, whose long-standing business model has been selling its products and services directly to consumers.

How will Apple train its AI models?

The main AI technology used in autonomous cars is deep learning. Along with caps, radars and other sensors, deep learning models allow autonomous cars to understand what is around them. The problem with deep learning, however, is that it needs a lot of data for different roads, light conditions and weather.

Waymo, Cruise, Zoox and other auto companies that drive alone have recorded millions of miles with vehicles with their equipment and software. Tesla, which has integrated its autonomous driving technology into its vehicles, is collecting training data from hundreds of thousands of cars it has sold to consumers.

Apple, on the other hand, does not have a fraction of the data that other companies have collected. Its last registered autonomous driving program, which dates back to 2019, recorded only about 7,500 miles on California roads.

So, unless we see a breakthrough in AI and self-directed technology, Apple will have to overcome a huge data gap before it can compete with other industry players. And as he plans to go straight to level 5 of autonomy, it is not clear how he will overcome this gap.

One possibility will be for Apple to acquire another autonomous car boot and take ownership of its data and experience. But all the main candidates have already been seized by other major technology or automotive companies. Another would be to become more closely involved with Hyundai’s autonomous driving program. But that would weaken Apple’s position as the exclusive owner of the Apple Car.

Finally, Apple can simply dismiss the driverless car plan and shift toward Tesla’s strategy, developing a human-powered electric vehicle that has the infrastructure to self-drive in the future. As Apple sells more cars and collects more data, it will be able to develop and launch autonomous car features for its customers.

As is the case with any unreleased Apple product, there are many ifs. Apple will continue to keep its plans under control and change them as the market develops. And we’re not sure what the Apple Car will be like until we see it.

Ben Dickson is a software engineer and founder of TechTalks. He writes about technology, business and politics. This post was originally published here.

This story originally appeared on Bdtechtalks.com. Copyright 2021