Analyzing the COVID-19 numbers: Nine areas of NYC above 10% positivity, but rates drop where the test is high

Although the city’s Department of Health classifies the state of COVID-19 in the five districts as “stable”, nine communities in Brooklyn and Queens continue to see high infection rates, exceeding 10%.

Interestingly, the city communities that account for the most COVID-19 tests also have some of the lowest infection rates across the city.

Even with the availability of the COVID-19 vaccine, New York City currently has one of the highest infection rates in the country – and the needle has not decreased for some time.

The rate of positivity in New York City has been virtually stable for more than two weeks; on March 18, it was 6.54%, but on March 31 it had grown to 6.72%, according to the municipality’s Health Department.

Although it is not a dramatic growth in the virus, it seems to highlight the repeated health department warnings about more infectious variants of COVID-19 still spreading across the city. On Wednesday, the agency reported that 70% of all new cases in the five neighborhoods are the result of different strains of the virus, rather than “classic COVID”.

In percentage, the coastal community of Breezy Point (CEP 11697), on the west end of the Rockaway Peninsula in Queens, has the highest rate of positivity in 7 days in the city, with 12.42%. The area, however, has a population of just 3,702 residents. Between 23 and 29 March, the Health Department cataloged 19 new cases of COVID-19 in the community.

However, five other Queens communities, each with populations much larger than Breezy Point, are experiencing 7-day positivity rates above 10% during the same period (23-29 March).

Flushing / Murray Hill / Queensboro Hill (CEP 11355) has a population of 85,871, but also a positivity rate of 12.15%, with 302 new cases of COVID-19 registered.

Woodhaven (CEP 11421) has a population of 43,567, but also a positive rate of 10.84%, with 146 new cases.

Belle Harbor / Neponsit / Rockaway Park (CEP 11694), just a few kilometers east of Breezy Point, is home to 21,202 people, but its 7-day positivity rate between March 23 and 29 was 10.78%, with 84 new cases recorded.

Two neighboring communities – South Richmond Hill (CEP 11419) and South Ozone Park (11420) are also above the 10% infection mark. South Richmond Hill, with a population of 47,211, has a positivity rate of 10.57%, while South Ozone Park, with 44,354 inhabitants, has an infection rate of 10.18%. Both communities had 151 new COVID-19 cases each last week.

Meanwhile, three neighborhoods in Brooklyn recorded high rates of positivity for COVID-19 between March 23 and 29.

Sunset Park (CEP 11220, population 93,170) leads all of Brooklyn with a positivity rate of 11.96% and 329 new cases, followed by Brighton Beach / Coney Island / Seagate (CEP 11224, population 45.244) with a positivity rate of 10.58% and 167 new cases; and Brighton Beach / Manhattan Beach / Sheepshead Bay (CEP 11235, population 79,132) with a positivity rate of 10.07% and 224 new cases.

The newest cases, by gross number, last week were found in Queens, in Corona / North Corona (CEP 11368), with 333 new cases, four more than Sunset Park and 31 more than Flushing / Murray Hill / Queensboro Hill . Community positivity rate in 7 days of 8.72%.

Cypress Hills / East New York, Brooklyn (CEP 11208), ranked fourth in the total of new cases with 300 (positivity rate of 8.84%), followed by Elmhurst, Queens (CEP 11373) with 270 new cases (rate positivity 8.74%).

Meanwhile, Manhattan continues to have one of the lowest infection rates in the city – and it’s no coincidence that they also have some of the highest per capita testing rates.

Eight of the 10 communities in New York City with the highest number of people tested per capita are in Manhattan. The best average daily test rate was in East Village / Greenwich Village / Gramercy (CEP 10003), with 1,299 per 100,000 people – but only a 2.64% positivity rate in 7 days, the 14th lowest rate in the five districts.

Greenwich Village / SoHo (CEP 10012) has the second best average daily test rate of 1,218 per 100,000, but a positivity rate of 2.94%, followed by Central Harlem / Morningside Heights / West Harlem (CEP 10027) with 1,114 per 100,000 tested and a positivity rate of 3.24%; Manhattan Valley / Morningside Heights / Upper West Side (CEP 10025) with 1,146 per 100,000 tested and a positivity rate of 1.99%.

Long Island City, Queens (CEP 11109) was the only area outside Manhattan to break the top 5 in tests, with 1,093 per 100,000 tested and a positivity rate of 3.96%.

On the other hand, the five areas with the lowest median daily test rates had 7-day positivity rates greater than 5% – although, ironically, none of the communities exceeded 10% positivity.

Brooklyn’s Borough Park neighborhood (CEP 11219) had only 289 per 100,000 people tested for COVID-19, but its positivity rate is 8.61%. This is followed by Fresh Meadows / Hillcrest in Queens (CEP 11366) with 366 tested per 100,000 and a positivity rate of 8.08%; Bensonhurst / Mapleton, Brooklyn (CEP 11204) with 383 tested per 100,000 and a positivity rate of 9.51%; Flushing / Murray Hill, Queens (CEP 11354) with 393 tested per 100,000 and a positivity rate of 9.89%; and Bellerose / Douglaston / Little Neck (CEPs 11004 and 11005) with 417 per 100,000 tested and a positivity rate of 6.62%.

Despite the fluctuating numbers, COVID-19 continues to spread throughout New York City – making thousands of New Yorkers sick every day and continuing to kill dozens of them a week.

The governor’s office reported another 43 deaths of COVID-19 in New York City from April 1 to 19 in Brooklyn, 10 in Manhattan, 9 in Queens, 3 in the Bronx and 2 on Staten Island.

So far, more than 31,000 New York City residents have died of COVID-19 since March 1, 2020 – the day the virus was officially detected here.