Analysis of the SAG winner: Chadwick Boseman, Viola Davis set for the Oscars?

The SAG Awards weighed in with their winners and started what could be the most diverse list of big Oscar winners in 93 years of Oscar history.

The celebration of the 27th annual ceremony, which is voted on by about 160,000 members of actors, was revealed during the hour-long pre-recorded show via Zoom on Sunday night.

Aaron Sorkin’s “The Trial of the Chicago 7” took the night’s top prize to the cast, marking his first major win in the awards season. In the acting categories, the stars of “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” Chadwick Boseman and Viola Davis won the main categories of male and female actors. Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”) and Yuh-Jung Youn (“Minari”) placed the male and female supporting statues.

It was the first time in the history of SAG that all four categories of acting in films were for black actors.

Boseman’s posthumous victory was the first in any leading category at the SAG Awards, putting him one step closer to the Oscars. In addition to winning the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe Awards, next week’s BAFTAs can further solidify their favorite status, even though Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”) has the advantage of playing at home across the pond. If Boseman wins the BAFTA, you’ll have to go back to 2002, when Russell Crowe (“A Beautiful Mind”) lost the Oscar to Denzel Washington (“Training Day”), for a nominee to lose after taking home so many precursors. Coincidentally, it was also the year that Halle Berry (“Monster’s Ball”) became the first and (still unique) black woman to win the category of leading actress, which brings us to the enigma that is best actress 2021.

Davis’ victory in SAG, her third overall individual in film performances, makes her the fourth award-winning individual actress on television, an unprecedented event for the lead actress in 27 years. The Globes went with Andra Day (“The United States vs. Billie Holiday”) in the drama and Rosamund Pike (“I Care A Lot”) in the comedy, while Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”) won the Critics’ Choice Award.

However, when it comes to winning both an actor and an actress at the Oscars, it is not an easy task. The last time this happened was 23 years ago, in 1998, when Jack Nicholson and Helen Hunt triumphed for “As Good As It Gets”, a film that was also nominated for best film. “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” is not.

And BAFTAs will not make things clearer. The only nominees for the Oscar for best actress in the race for this award are Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a woman”) and Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”).

For Kaluuya, his victory was expected, and along with Boseman, it seems to be the only sure bet in the main categories of the Academy. And, like Boseman, if Kaluuya wins the BAFTA, where his closest competitor, Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Chicago 7 Judgment”) was not nominated, no supporting actor missed the Oscar by joining BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe and SAG.

For better supporting actress, Youn could have advanced as a pioneer in this category. With “Minari” receiving six nominations, she can serve as a winner to represent the film and, more importantly, she will only be the second Asian acting winner in history after Miyoshi Umeki in “Sayonara” (1957). Not everything is tailored for the critic’s darling, but like Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”) it is still a factor to consider. With the Critics Choice win, the two will face each other for the last time at BAFTA, where none of their other supporting actresses have been nominated. It is safe to say that whoever wins at BAFTA, probably wins at the Oscars.

With the evaluation of the SAG winners and their translation for the Oscar winners, in 27 years, they combined seven times, an average of three in a given year. It would be safe to assume that someone would fall short, but who and in what category?

The 2001 awards year was the only time that two black actors won the main Oscar statuettes. Denzel Washington (“Training Day”) had an impressive turnaround on Russell Crowe (“A Beautiful Mind”) and Halle Berry (“Monster’s Ball”) was also the first black actress to win in the category. Without a BAFTA or a SAG candidate and the only representation of his film at the Oscars, Day has the most difficult mountain to climb. No major performance has ever won an Oscar without BAFTA and SAG in the modern era. In fact, only two actors won without both bodies: Marcia Gay Harden in “Pollock” (2001) and Regina King in “If Beale Street Could Talk” (2018) in the last 20 years of actress winners. Only Charlize Theron (“Monster”) and Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”) were the only nominees for their films, sweeping their respective award seasons.

You must ask yourself if a sufficient number of voters will take the time to watch Day’s film before Oscar night, especially at artisans’ races, where about 63% of voters are present? Davis’ film is on its way to winning four of its five nominations (actor, actress, costume and makeup). Does it become a down-the-line ballot vote? Also, could “Ma Rainey” be the most awarded film of the night? No film not nominated for best film led only to victories in the history of the Academy?

Finally, with the SAG set and the best Oscar film, the two combined only 12 of the past 26 years. The last five were “Parasite” (2019), “Spotlight” (2015), “Birdman” (2014), “Argo” (2012) and “The King’s Speech” (2010). It is worth mentioning that Chloé Zhao’s “Nomadland” and Fennell’s “Promising Young Woman” were not nominated for the group. Only “Braveheart” (1995), “The Shape of Water” (2017) and “Green Book” (2018) won a photo without the nom.

Although this year’s Oscar nominees presented the most diverse in history, are we moving to a list of fully active actors of color? If Zhao wins the director and his film by taking pictures, this is a scenario that 10 years ago would not have been imagined.

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