The conflict in Syria has seen the convergence of multiple, sometimes opposing forces in the skies over a nearly decade-long civil war that today threatens to pull US foreign policy resources back into the quagmire, in which its most powerful ally nearby, Israel and a major rival, Russia, are among those operating in dangerous neighborhoods.
The sudden roar of jets and missile explosions has become a very common feature of the ongoing war in Syria, and last week’s attacks across the southwest of the country served as an explosive reminder of the war’s persistent violence. The air strikes, which were not claimed but largely attributed to Israel, targeted positions near the Golan Heights and Damascus International Airport, where Israel accused Iranian-related elements of storing and transporting weapons.
Although the attacks were intended to cause damage to the ground, a senior US intelligence officer, speaking on condition of anonymity, raised concerns about the high volume of air traffic caused by Israel’s semi-secret bombing campaign while Russian and Syrian air forces carry their own missions.
The officer said Newsweek that, at the time, “the US saw a significant increase in military air activity over Syria, including forces from Israel and Russia, in addition to Syrian aircraft”.
The increase in traffic made an accident more likely, the official said.
“The airspace was saturated above daily standards,” said the official, “presenting a high chance of miscalculation or perhaps the incorrect identification of targets by all entities.”
The United States operates in Syria today as part of a multinational coalition charged with defeating the ISIS militant group in the northeast of the country. Russia and Syria are also targeting ISIS in other parts of the country, along with other insurgent forces, some of which are supported by Turkey. Iran supports this latest campaign locally, but its partner militias are seen as a threat and targeted by Israel.
The complex lines of control are blurred and have led to reports of up to 170 incidents of aviation and unmanned aerial vehicles involving at least seven nations, as well as non-state actors. On the ground in Syria, some fear that a misunderstanding may always be just minutes away.
“About Syria’s crowded airspace, it has always been a concern, especially after the United States entered Syria,” said a Syrian source who asked to remain anonymous. Newsweek.
With so many countries operating in Syrian airspace, the chances of something going wrong are high, said this source.
And then add missiles to the mix.
“Now, where Russia, the US, Turkey and France, not to mention Israel, are operating on / near Syria, accidents are always possible,” added the source, “especially when the case involves air defense missiles. Once the missile is launched, there is no turning back. “
MUHAMMAD HAJ KADOUR / AFP / Getty Images
There have already been a series of lethal and high-profile miscalculations, such as the accidental shooting of a Russian spy plane by Syria during an Israeli attack in 2018. Others, such as the shooting of a Syrian jet by the US allegedly flying over territory held by the forces Syrian Democratic Democrats backed by the Pentagon in the previous year have been deliberately escalated.
The Israeli and Syrian armed forces also shot down each other’s warplanes. So far, there have been no clashes between Russian and Israeli aircraft. But with the increase in Israel’s incursions into Syria, such an incident cannot be ruled out.
To avoid this, the two countries have a coordination mechanism for Syria, the details of which are difficult to discern, especially due to Moscow’s close ties with Damascus and the strategic partnership with Tehran. At the same time, Russia expressed its criticism of Israeli operations in the country.
“It is difficult to deny that such actions further destabilize the complicated regional situation,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters amid an intensification of Israeli attacks in December.
Israel rarely discusses the details of its operations in Syria, but an Israeli military official said Newsweek that the country’s communications with Russia mitigated the risk for both sides.
“We do have, in fact, a deconfiguration mechanism with the Russian military that facilitates our freedom of action while minimizing the risk of attrition with Russian troops and promoting mutual security,” said the Israeli military. “So far, it has been very effective and has withstood challenging circumstances in a very dense battle space.”
Newsweek also spoke last month with an Israeli security officer who discussed the challenges of targeting in Syria, given the ambiguity surrounding the conflict in Syria, where local troops, Iranian personnel, fighters from the Lebanese Shiite Muslim Hezbollah movement supported by Iran and , sometimes Russian forces are operating.
“[The Syrian army] from the [Hezbollah] lots of space to do what they want, and that makes life a little uncomfortable, “said Israeli security at the time.” It is a big problem for us to really decide who to attack and what to do. “
Syria’s permanent mission to the United Nations condemned what it called “acts of aggression perpetrated by Israel” in previous statements sent to Newsweek.
On the ground, a second Syrian source who requested anonymity described the layout of this stretch of Syrian air activity, where not only military-to-military incidents, but those involving military and civilian airlines are “a very common thing”.
The Syrian government’s air operations over its own country are limited. The restricted areas include the autonomous northeast, a US-controlled southeastern desert pocket and a stretch of the northern border occupied by rebels, jihadists and Turkish troops, the second source said.
Syrian jets also operate along the southern and western borders, as well as on the Mediterranean coast, but this source noted that any activity very close to the Lebanese or Israeli borders would have an Israeli military response.
The second source said that the Russians do not share these limitations – or none at all.
“There are some restrictions beyond our waters, there are some restrictions on Lebanon, on the south,” explained the second source. “While for Russia there are no restrictions. They are more free than we are.”
That freedom extends to and beyond Syria’s exclusive economic zone as well, where “US spy planes are also flying,” said this source.
Israel Defense Forces
The US and Russia have their own deconfiction channels, both for air and ground operations in northeastern Syria, where tensions between the two countries and their respective allies have increased in recent months. The two countries conducted their campaigns largely separately, but had occasional discussions, some of which were violent.
“Unlike the case between Russia and the US, where there is a direct line of communication between the two and small incidents, they can easily be stopped before the escalation,” said the first Syrian source. Newsweek, “air clashes between the two adversaries, that is, Syria and Israel, have always endangered regional civilian flights.”
“Israeli jets flying in a civilian corridor or near a civilian plane and Syrian missiles in search of a big radar pulse after losing their blocked targets or crashing into a house, whatever you want,” said the first source. “Mistakes are possible and will always be expensive.”
While Moscow’s mission in Syria to save President Bashar al-Assad’s government from a national uprising was clear from the start, Washington’s goals have changed during the course of administrations. Former President Barack Obama initially tried to topple Assad by supporting the insurgents, but switched to an anti-ISIS mission later carried out by former President Donald Trump, who expressed a desire to withdraw, but retained up to 900 soldiers to protect oil sites and gas.
President Joe Biden, who served as Obama’s vice president, offered no indication of an end to the US presence in Syria, despite calls from Damascus for withdrawal. The new leadership of the United States has also shown no willingness to become more involved in the conflict.
In a statement sent to Newsweek, a State Department spokesman detailed three objectives of President Joe Biden’s administration in Syria.
First, “the United States is committed to a political agreement under UNSC Resolution 2254 to end the conflict in Syria, in close consultation with our allies, partners and the UN,” said the spokesman.
Second, “We will use the tools at our disposal, including economic pressure, to push for significant reform and accountability for the Assad regime,” according to the statement.
Third, “The United States and the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS continue to work with our increasingly capable local partners to maintain constant pressure on ISIS remnants in Syria to ensure the lasting defeat of ISIS”, as relayed to the Newsweek by the State Department spokesman.
But American officials have always refused to discuss Israel’s role in Syria, a country that the Biden government reaffirmed a long-standing pact to defend. Israel was not mentioned in the Pentagon’s last quarterly report to Congress, detailing US military missions in Iraq and Syria, despite including references to other key players, including Iran, Russia and Turkey.
Reached for comment by Newsweek, the US Central Command declined to discuss details of air operations on the stretch of the country frequented by Russian and Israeli jets.
“I will refuse to comment on airspace over Western Syria,” said a Pentagon spokesman.