Americans, used to being winners, now look around and see a country that cannot secure its own seat of government … that struggles to distribute a vaccine … that has been looted cybernetically by Russia … half a year late with a stimulus plan that both sides wanted … that can’t even orchestrate a peaceful transition of power.
Why it matters: This is weakness, not strength. The democracy that President-elect Biden will assume is tattered, archaic, precarious.
By the numbers: The consent of the governed is at the heart of American democracy. But Biden will not have that fundamental authority.
- 40% of Americans and 80% of Trump voters say they believe Biden is not the legitimate winner of the 2020 election – the highest proportion of resisters in the history of American polls.
- 145 members of Congress, including 7 senators, voted to reject Pennsylvania Electoral College votes – a move designed to deliver victory to the loser of the election.
The big picture: Presidential democracies (think of France and Brazil) are subject to crises at the best of times. None lasted as long as America’s.
- He was frail and old even before Trump was elected, burdened with an anachronistic electoral college, a dangerously long transition between election and inauguration and a deeply disordered patchwork of state and federal constituents.
- “You can no longer mix US democracy with Canada, Germany and Japan,” Eurasian Group President Bremmer told Axios. “We are now halfway between them and Hungary.”
What is the next: If Trump faces criminal as a civil case, expect the crisis to worsen. On the other hand, if he not facing criminal prosecution as a civilian, half the country will take this as a message that the president really is above the law and has ample impunity – even when inciting an insurrection attempt.
Our thought bubble, Axios’ Sara Fischer: The erosion of peaceful democracy in America did not occur in a vacuum. US opponents, especially Russia, have long sought to undermine American democracy through sophisticated state-supported cybernetic and disinformation campaigns.
- These campaigns undermined confidence in the press and confused the American information ecosystem, promoting a state of chaotic tribalism in the United States.