The wheels of democracy never stop spinning – even in odd years. Between the 2020 presidential race and the 2022 mid-term elections, hundreds of elections will be held in 2021 in states and cities whose electoral calendars do not coincide with most of the rest of the country. There will also be at least four special elections for the United States House that can not only affect the narrow majority of eight Democratic seats, but also give us an early clue to the political environment in 2022.
Here is a primer on the main disputes you should be aware of this year – and if that isn’t enough to whet your electoral appetite, you can sign up for my obscure election Google Calendar for an even more complete schedule.
Governor and other state elections
The biggest election of 2021 is probably for governor of Virginia. This once-red state has skyrocketed to the left in recent years – President Biden won by 10 points in 2020, and did not elect a Republican to any state office since 2009 – so Democrats start out as the favorites to win, but the race can be difficult if the national environment becomes more favorable for Republicans. In addition, as Virginia governors cannot run for re-election, there are competitive disputes for nominations from both parties that largely reflect each party’s national divisions. The Democratic favorite, former governor Terry McAuliffe, channels Biden as a moderate white man with a lot of experience and name recognition. But, as in the 2020 presidential primaries, more progressive and demographically diverse candidates (including two who would be the first black governors in the history of the United States) are defending a new generation of leadership. Democratic primaries are scheduled for June 8. Republicans, meanwhile, are finding out how close they want to tie themselves to former President Donald Trump and balance the prevailing complaints like “canceling culture” with traditional Republican messages. A multi-site convention on May 8 will decide whether your nominee is former House Speaker Kirk Cox, pro-Trump senator Amanda Chase or two self-funded entrepreneurs (or one of the other minor candidates). The general election will be on November 2.
The only other state with regularly scheduled governor elections in 2021 is New Jersey, a race that Democrats should easily win. Biden beat New Jersey by 16 points, and Democratic Governor Phil Murphy (who is running for re-election) has a pass / fail rate of 59% to 36%, according to a recent survey by Stockton University.
However, most likely there will be at least one other governor election, added to the calendar in unusual circumstances. Activists in California gathered 2.1 million signatures in support of Governor Gavin Newsom’s recall; if at least 1,495,709 of them are considered valid, a revocation election will be held sometime this fall. Judging by the rhetoric so far, the campaign would probably be devastating, but Newsom starts off in good shape: despite its mediocre approval ratings, 56 percent of Californians in a recent poll said they would not go as far as to vote him out of office. . This may be because, at least so far, all the top candidates running to replace him – like former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer and 2018 governor candidate John Cox – are Republicans, and California is a totally blue state. This is not the only election for governor out of the loop that we could see in 2021: there is still a decent chance that the long-term recall campaign against Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy will also qualify for the vote this year.
While disputes for governors are likely to be the most impactful state elections in 2021, there are also noteworthy disputes this year for vice governor, attorney general, state superintendent of public education, state legislature, judges and electoral measures. Keep an eye on Virginia House of Delegates in particular. If Republicans manage to get the six seats they need to take control of the House, they will break the Democrats’ total control over the state government of Virginia, even if the Democrats win the government.
Special House elections
There are currently four vacant seats in the U.S. House of Representatives to be filled by special election: the 2nd district of Louisiana on April 24, Texas 6 on May 1, New Mexico 1 on June 1 and Ohio 11 on November 2.
O Louisiana 2nd District and 11th district of Ohio are both safe Democratic chairs, but they could elect very differently types of the Democrats. The Louisiana race is a second round (the first round of voting took place last month) between the state sensuals Troy Carter and Karen Carter Peterson (unrelated). Carter is a moderate Democrat, while Peterson has adopted more progressive policies. And in Ohio, the favorite in the August 3 Democratic primaries is arguably former state senator Nina Turner, the president of Our Revolution who has become a progressive leader nationally recognized as co-president of Senator Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign. Turner’s main opponent is Cuyahoga County Council member Shontel Brown, but there are also five other candidates in the race.
On the other side of the coin, either party could win the Texas 6th District, although Republicans are likely to be preferred: according to the Daily Kos elections, Trump won the district 51% to 48% in 2020. But under the unusual Texas special election rules, all 23 candidates will run in the same ballot, and if no one gets a majority of the votes, the top two – regardless of the party – advance to the second round. Polls suggest that Republican Susan Wright, the widow of the late deputy Ron Wright (whose death created the vacancy for this seat), is the favorite. The Democrat most likely to win the runoff is likely 2018 candidate Jana Lynne Sanchez, but a Republican like state deputy Jake Ellzey could also do well enough to block Democrats entirely from runoff.
The fourth special election – for the New Mexico, first district – it probably won’t be a source of much suspense: state deputy Melanie Stansbury is a big favorite to defeat state senator Mark Moores in a district that Biden won by 23 points. However, it will still be worth highlighting the final margin between the candidates, in this and all other special elections this year. Again, it is usually a good sign for a midterm party’s prospects if it regularly beats its weight in the special elections leading up to the elections. For example, even if they did not always win, Democratic candidates consistently outperformed their districts’ normal party performance in the 2017-18 special elections, portending the 2018 midterm elections in which they won a network of 40 seats in the House and seven governors. .
Mayor elections
Finally, numerous cities will hold municipal elections in 2021, including at least 548 who are electing mayors. The most important of these elections (in terms of the number of people affected), and undoubtedly one of the most interesting, is taking place in New York City on June 22nd. (The winner of the Democratic primaries that day will be a big favorite in the November 2 general elections in the Big Apple.) The field to replace the mayor who leaves Bill de Blasio is ideologically, occupationally and demographically diverse: The technocrat and candidate for the presidency of 2020, Andrew Yang, leads the polls; City inspector Scott Stringer and attorney Maya Wiley are fighting for the “more progressive” cloak; Brooklyn District President Eric Adams has a regional base of years of experience in local politics; and former Wall Street executive Ray McGuire raised at least $ 7.5 million. To make things even more unpredictable, the race will be conducted using the choice vote by rank for the first time.
There are many other competitive mayor races to predict, but some deserve a brief mention. Two big cities in Texas have clashes between left and right – rarities in modern urban politics. At the Santo António (the country’s seventh largest city, with a population larger than that of Hawaii), conservative Greg Brockhouse is seeking a rematch with progressive mayor Ron Nirenberg after losing the 2019 race by just 2 percentage points. And on Interstate 35, Fort Worth Mayor Betsy Price is one of only two Republican mayors left in the country’s 25 most populous cities, but her retirement this year led to the first open seat dispute there in 10 years. The result could be a barometer of how hard blue Texas and urban and suburban areas have become in the Trump era and, in the event of a democratic turn, solidify the national trend for cities to become uniformly democratic. Both races take place on the 1st of May and each will go to a second round if no one gets the majority.
Across the spectrum, the only question about Seattlethe next mayor is whether he or she will be a leftist or very tilted to the left. The camp includes former city council president Bruce Harrell, whom the Seattle Times called “a decisive vote between the council activist and the moderate wings”; former state deputy Jessyn Farrell, an environmental and traffic activist who is close to organized work; Mayor Lorena González, a progressive who often clashes with outgoing mayor Jenny Durkan; and Seattle Club executive director Colleen Echohawk, a Durkan ally. González and Echohawk would also be the first black women to lead Seattle. The field will be reduced to two candidates on August 3, with a second round of voting on November 2.
Across the country, a city with a dark history of racism also has a chance to make history with its run for mayor on September 21 (preliminary elections) and November 2 (general elections). Boston he never elected a mayor who is not a white man, but the top five candidates so far are all colored and three are women. Kim Janey, a black woman who became interim mayor when ex-mayor Marty Walsh resigned to become Biden’s labor secretary, is also still thinking about a campaign and would immediately become one of the race’s heavyweights if she steps up. pledge.