Participants in an unauthorized protest demonstration against the arrest of opposition leader Alexei Navalny on January 23, 2021 in Moscow, Russia. Credit – Mikhail Svetlov via Getty Images
Russian anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny and his colleagues have had a special upheaval in recent months.
Last August, Navalny survived an almost fatal poisoning by a nervous agent that he attributed to the Kremlin. He spent five months recovering in Berlin while working on an alleged viral video exhibition, claiming that President Vladimir Putin owns a $ 1.3 billion palace, financed by members of his inner circle (Putin denies). Navalny’s arrest on his return to Moscow on January 17 and the launch of the palace investigation a few days later sparked mass protests across the country. Thousands of people have been arrested in the most widespread protests the country has seen in decades.
Then, on February 2, Navalny was sentenced to two years and eight months in prison for violating probation in a 2014 embezzlement case. The decision was widely seen as an attempt by Putin to silence his fiercest critic. Several members of the Navalny Anticorruption Foundation (FBK) were fined, arrested, placed under house arrest or forced to leave the country. Lyubov Sobol, a lawyer for the FBK, was placed under house arrest until March 23 for breaking Covid-19 rules. Belarusian citizen Vladlen Los, a lawyer for the FBK, was deported to Belarus with a re-entry ban until November 2023. Russia issued an arrest warrant for Leonid Volkov, chief of staff at Navalny, which extends to a series of former Soviet countries. media reported on February 10.
Volkov, who is currently in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, says that arresting Navalny will not only prevent opposition to the Putin regime, but will strengthen it. “The fundamental reasons behind the protests are not going to go away with Putin in the Kremlin, Navalny in prison and the economic situation deteriorating,” he told TIME. In this interview, which was edited in terms of length and clarity, Volkov talks about what’s next for the Anti-Corruption Foundation – and why he believes Navalny will be launched sooner than many people think:
TIME: How was imprisoning Navalny a risk for the Kremlin?
Volkov: By arresting Alexei Navalny, the authorities helped to turn him into a tool against themselves. Navalny is now considered by the Russians to be the president’s number one political opponent. People who are unhappy with Putin’s Russia for this or that reason – economic, social, ecological – naturally see Navalny as a symbol of their protest and a way of channeling it. We anticipate this situation. This will help us a lot to organize and expedite the protests under our umbrella over a series of problems against Putin.
This has already happened. The protests after Navalny’s arrest were more widespread than we have ever seen in Russia. More people across the country attended, despite the greater risks involved in participating in an unsanctioned protest. It wasn’t just about Navalny. People are tired of Putin’s 21-year government. Another reason is the economy. An average family’s income has declined for eight consecutive years. But of course, people were also outraged by Navalny’s poisoning and imprisonment and his investigation into Putin’s palace. People realized that he was arrested for daring to survive the poisoning.
Does Putin really care about the international response?
Of course. International condemnation is important, but international sanctions against Putin’s allies and partners are essential. This would harm Putin and the elite. That’s why we’re pushing hard for them. Most of the elite feel integrated in Europe and do not want to be separated; they want to send their kids to school there, buy property in London or France, do business there.
Targeted sanctions would lead to conflicts within the elite that could threaten Putin’s control of power. The system of loyal elites that Putin carefully built is diverse; they are senior government officials, Siloviki [politicians who have a KGB and military background]. [These are] Putin’s portfolios, the nominal holders of his assets, and they have different, often conflicting issues. Putin presides over his situation as supreme arbitrator, to whom they can appeal. The consensus among them is that they need Putin because he protects them and helps them to get rich. When, for example, an oligarch’s assets in the West are frozen and he cannot travel to see his children in Europe, this will cause more tension and can destroy consensus.
Read More: The inside story of how Alexey Navalny discovered Putin’s $ 1.3 billion palace
How will you maintain momentum?
At the moment, we are looking for other ways for people to express their sympathy and fight fear.
We were able to reach a new audience through our investigation of the ‘Putin Palace’. Tens of millions of people followed this. But most likely did not protest because of the risks of being beaten or imprisoned, expelled from universities and losing their jobs. We are trying to avoid this. We are encouraging people to enter their residential courtyards and turn on their phone lights this Sunday. In a few months, we will be back on the streets. We are spending some time preparing better campaigns to reach not only dedicated activists, but a new audience.
How does Navalny’s absence affect the opposition movement?
We don’t need another face. The Anti-Corruption Foundation is not a small organization. We have about 250 paid employees. Working in your temporary absence is nothing new for us. Navalny spent the entire year of 2014 under house arrest. From 2017 to 2019, Navalny was arrested about 12 times and spent a total of six or seven months in prison. Last year, he was poisoned and spent a few months rehabilitating. I was able to communicate with him about strategic plans through his lawyers. It is weak communication and it has no confidentiality. But even so, we have some channels of communication and it is at least enough for us to coordinate on the main issues of political strategy. We have a clear plan for 2021, but not beyond that. The situation in Russia can change so dramatically that it is not always worthwhile to plan years in advance.
Will Navalny’s wife, Yulia, play a more active role in the opposition movement while he is in prison?
She played an active role in the family issue of saving her husband and getting the international reaction needed for Alexei to be taken from Russia to Germany. But there was no discussion about his involvement in political issues.
Considering the recent attack on Navalny and the fact that Russian opposition figures were forced into exile or murdered – how will Navalny continue to operate when he is released?
I’m sure he’ll be free soon, sooner than many expect. I have no evidence for that, it’s my feeling. So far, he has managed to put increasing pressure on the Kremlin and I am sure he will continue to make our movement grow, to attack Putin’s political structure and to present our vision of Russia’s future. We were able to increase our support base. Ten years ago, we had about 100,000 supporters, now 30 million people are following us.
Read More: Vladimir Putin renounces the last claims of legitimacy to extend his government
GConsidering that Putin modified the constitution, allowing him to remain in power until 2036, how are you going to weaken Putin’s control in power?
Putin has decided that he wants to remain in power forever for a decade. This was clear to us when he announced in 2011 that he would run for president. What happened in 2020 was an almost constitutional referendum that was just a stamp of a decision taken many years ago. But he has many intentions that have been unsuccessful. Putin intended to kill Navalny in August 2020. He intended to place Russia in the top five economies. As we get bigger and stronger, Putin’s likelihood of success decreases. We have to be patient. We always understood that it would be a long journey.