A Russian court sentenced opposition leader Alexei Navalny to two and a half years in prison, delivering a devastating blow to the pro-democracy movement that threatens President Vladimir Putin’s government.
Last August, Navalny was poisoned with Novichok, a highly lethal nervous agent who was placed inside his underwear before a flight, an operation almost certainly run by the Kremlin, if not by Putin himself.
Concerned about the care Navalny was receiving at the Russian hospital where he was admitted, Navalny’s team sent the dissident, who at the time was still in a coma since the attack, to Berlin for treatment. He stayed in Germany for five months, using that time to expose his attackers, before returning to Russia in January.
Navalny’s decision to return to his home country was a challenging act, not only because the Russian government had just tried to kill him, but also because he would certainly be arrested on landing in Moscow.
At the end of last year, the Kremlin placed Navalny on the government’s federal wanted list, claiming that he avoided Russian federal authorities abroad. As part of a parole sentence for a 2014 embezzlement case, Navalny had to check with inspectors regularly, but that’s difficult to do while you’re in a coma.
As expected, Navalny was promptly arrested on his return.
At his trial on Tuesday, Navalny – who never wasted a public moment – used the platform to protest the Kremlin and the autocrat who leads it.
“He never participated in any debate or campaign. Murder is the only way he knows how to fight. He will go down in history as nothing but a poisoner, ”said Navalny of Putin. “Now we will have Vladimir, the underwear poisoner.”
“I demand my immediate release and the release of all political prisoners. I do not recognize your performance here – it is a mistake and totally illegal ”, concluded Navalny before drawing a heart to his wife, Yulia, in the glass cage he was in.
His speech failed to persuade the judge, however, who promptly sentenced Navalny to three and a half years in prison, with just under a year removed for time previously served under house arrest. Which means that Navalny now faces about two years and eight months behind bars.
It is possible that Navalny did not spend the entire sentence in prison. His lawyer, Olga Mikhailova, said after the trial that he plans to appeal the decision. And in 2013, Navalny was sentenced to five years in prison on a separate charge before being released just a day later.
The problem, experts say, is that the Russian regime has become more repressive, and it is unlikely to show Navalny much mercy. “He will be in prison longer or he will be released on condition that he leaves the country completely,” said Irina Soboleva, a specialist in Navalny’s movement at Duke University.
“In either case,” she said, “the movement will be significantly reduced.”
The outlook for the Navalny movement is not good, but there is hope
Protests across the country over the past two weeks, prompted by Navalny’s arrest, have become Putin’s worst nightmare. Tens of thousands of people across the country took to the streets in more than 100 Russian cities to express their general frustration with the regime, many of them for the first time.
This is very worrying for Putin. His political party, United Russia, enjoys a super majority in the country’s legislature – which means it can apply almost any policy it wants. But the September elections threaten this super majority, and it is never a good sign when much of the country wants you to step out of power.
Silencing Navalny before the vote, then, could help Putin maintain full control of Russia. In fact, deposing Putin was already a difficult task for Navalny. Without it, it is almost impossible.
“His movement will continue, but it will be very challenging without its leader being able to speak out,” said Angela Stent, who runs the Center for Eurasian, Russian and Eastern European Studies at Georgetown University.
Furthermore, the duke’s Soboleva said the movement’s strategy – denouncing the regime’s corruption and electing anti-Putin people for government positions – was developed at a time when Moscow allowed “controlled opposition” against the Kremlin. Opposition candidates can run to oust members of Putin’s United Russia party – and even win – as long as they tacitly agree never to threaten Putin’s control in power.
But those days may be numbered. “There is only one way forward for Putin,” said Soboleva, “and it is moving towards authoritarianism.”
Others have a little more hope. Alina Polyakova, president and CEO of the Center for European Analysis in Washington, DC, said that Navalny’s team certainly planned his long-term absence. “They absolutely knew this would happen on their return to Russia,” she told me.
This means that it is possible that Navalny’s team has additional ammunition – like embarrassing videos for Putin – lined up and ready to be launched on Navalny’s popular YouTube page.
And while Navalny may be silenced for a while, others in his inner circle – that is, his wife, Yulia – still have a public platform. “She is incredibly brave, strong, upright, articulate and inspiring,” said Michael McFaul, the US ambassador to Russia from 2012 to 2014. He highlighted the leadership role that Winnie Mandela played in the South African anti-apartheid and pro-rights movement civilians while Nelson Mandela was in prison.
Ultimately, however, most experts agreed that Russia’s pro-democracy uprising begins and ends with Navalny. The question now is whether he can remain the leading figure in the most difficult circumstances he faced during his anti-Putin campaign.
“Putin today elevated Navalny as the unequivocal leader of Russia’s democratic opposition,” McFaul told me. “As long as he can stay alive in prison, he will continue to play a central role in Russian politics for a long time, especially in the post-Putin era.”