No. 1 Alabama is a 20-point favorite over No. 4 Notre Dame in Friday’s College Football Playoff semifinal game, with a total of 65.5.
Let’s take a look at the matchup to see if we can find any value in the betting market.
Conservative offense to old school Notre Dame
Nick Saban should be excited about this fight for his defense, if for no other reason than to remind him of the years before the proliferation of RPOs and the spread of crimes.
Notre Dame has played as a SEC team since the beginning of Saban’s time in Tuscaloosa.
Its receivers are more physical than fast. In fact, the first three recipients recorded 88 catches this season. The first two tight ends and the initial running back have 81 tracks.
Quarterback Ian Book launched just two interceptions. He is more likely to hold the ball for a long time or throw it away than to take risks on the field.
However, Fighting Irish boast an offensive line of race lock that ranks second in Pro Football Focus scores. The team runs with the ball in 56.4 percent of its snaps and executes the attack in the 107th fastest time.
Notre Dame can shorten the game quickly if its top seven fail to face physicality. The team’s three best backs collected 1,840 run yards at 5.8 yards per load. Book sometimes carries many bags, but he averages 7.1 yards per bagless transport.
Clemson held Notre Dame for 30 44-yard races in the ACC Championship Game, and the Irish needed a junk-time touchdown to reach 34-10 at the end of the game. You can damage this attack if you fill the ground game.
This test is nothing like what Tide faced against Florida and Ole Miss. It is not that Notre Dame will not be able to complete passes, especially at its tight ends. But Alabama ranks 100th in allowed pass explosiveness, its biggest weakness. And Notre Dame is not prepared to fully exploit this.
Explosive throws key to win Notre Dame defense
If you only watched Notre Dame against Clemson, you won’t be too impressed with Fighting Irish’s defense. This allowed 40 points in the victory twice in overtime at the start of the season and 34 in the match for the conference title.
What he did against North Carolina after the first quarter was nothing short of a masterpiece. He held Tar Heels to three points in the final 47:59. The same North Carolina team is fourth in the SP + attack and has scored 41, 56, 59, 49 and 62 points in their last five games outside Notre Dame.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has 11 tackles to defeat and is ninth on Mel Kiper Jr.’s latest Big Board for ESPN +. The team’s defense is in fourth place in confusion and third in success rate of allowed descent passes.
Notre Dame also ranks first in the material fee and 11 in the PFF approval coverage level.
Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly said his team has become more physical along the scrimmage line since Tide won 42-14 at the 2012-13 BCS National Championship. He’s correct.
This does not mean that the Irish will beat Bama, or even keep him close. Alabama is also a different team than it was in January 2013.
The two keys to facing the defense of Notre Dame are to avoid the third and long and hit some explosive moves. The Crimson Tide are able to check both boxes.
Alabama ranks first in success rate. If you play to avoid big moves, he can own football and generate first down after first down. If you press the receivers and stack up against the race, Mac Jones can find DeVonta Smith and John Metchie III at the top.
Notre Dame ranks 97th in permitted explosiveness. Alabama will be able to choose its points to make some important plays in the passing game.
The question for Tide is how his offensive line will do without Landon Dickerson, who was injured against Florida. Dickerson is the best-scoring offensive striker on the team according to the PFF and is among the top-scoring players on the list.
As good as Alabama is, it ranks 119th in permitted material rate and 91st in accelerated explosiveness. Any slippage in the game running without Dickerson against a good Notre Dame defense could make it a little more challenging to salt the clock with a comfortable lead at the end of the game.
Analysis and choice of bets
This is a big difference for a College Football Playoff semifinal, despite the high breakdown rate in these games since the start of the four team format.
Alabama was just a 10.5-point favorite over Notre Dame on the national championship anticipation lines that BetOnline posted in late November.
Tide should thank you for avoiding Clemson and Ohio State in the semifinal. You will have to beat just one of these teams, instead of two, to win another national championship in a year in which three teams are clearly better than all the others.
The result of this game must be decided before the last possessions.
Alabama -20 is still inflated by at least a few points. SP + makes the game Bama -13.5 and the Sagarin Ratings make Bama -15.5. But this Alabama team is very balanced and has been exceeding the expectations of the betting market for most of the season. Tide even has an advantage in special teams, so I’ll pass on the spread.
I hope Notre Dame shortens the game as much as possible, playing to avoid big moves, taking the ball out at the end of the game and trying to limit possessions. Therefore, I will accept less than 65.5 as my bet on what should be a fun semi-final match.
Christopher Smith is a professional handicapper specializing in college football and basketball. He is the founder of Sports Locksmith.