LOS ANGELES – What does Hollywood expect from the other side of the pandemic?
As vaccines are launched around the world, many film executives and theater operators have predicted – hoping, praying – that a huge increase in ticket purchases awaits. They hope that the masses, desperate to leave their homes (and tired of watching television), will start to invade the cinemas as soon as they feel safe from the coronavirus and great films will begin to repopulate the marquees.
It could happen.
But early box office results indicate a more complicated recovery, with the tastes of moviegoers potentially changing – particularly in China, now the world’s No. 1 cinema market – and behind-the-scenes discussions between studios and theaters hampering the availability of films. Some traditional studios have begun to prioritize streaming, to resist multiplex operators. “It will take some time for things to settle down,” said David A. Gross, who runs Franchise Entertainment Research, a film consultancy.
Over the weekend, for example, the Walt Disney Company launched “Raya and the Last Dragon”, an animated adventure with a sweeping review that cost about $ 150 million to make. Featuring the vocal talents of Kelly Marie Tran and Awkwafina, “Raya and the Last Dragon” played in 2,045 cinemas in North America, including some in New York City, where state officials allowed networks like AMC to resume operations (with 25% of capacity) for the first time in a year.
Would strong criticism and pent-up demand take audiences to theaters?
Not really: ticket sales for “Raya and the Last Dragon” in the United States and Canada totaled just $ 8.6 million, according to Comscore, which compiles box office data. Mr. Gross characterized this result as “mild”, even by pandemic patterns. “Tom & Jerry: The Movie”, a poorly rated offer from Warner Bros. which cost about $ 80 million to make, hit theaters on February 26 and grossed $ 14 million in the first three days. Mr. Gross rated the attendance of “Tom and Jerry” as “very good” and “a positive sign for the business”.
“Raya and the Last Dragon” was probably withheld for two reasons. Disney simultaneously offered the film to Disney + subscribers – for an additional $ 30 “premium access” – and Cinemark, the third US cinema chain (behind AMC and Regal), declined to reserve it. Cinemark and Disney discussed the licensing terms, with Cinemark, citing the premiere in simultaneous streaming, insisting on a discount, and Disney giving little. “We are making short-term booking decisions on a discreet, film-by-film basis, with a focus on the long-term benefit of exhibitors, studios and moviegoers,” Cinemark said in a statement.
Cinemark and other movie theaters struck a deal with Warner to play “Tom & Jerry”, although it was available simultaneously – without an increase – to HBO Max subscribers.
Disney declined to comment.
To further complicate the situation, it is possible that “Raya and the Last Dragon” was a huge sales success at Disney +. Only Disney knows. The company does not disclose financial figures for its premium access launches.
Jonathan Cohen, director of content and communications for ListenFirst, a social media analytics firm, said there was “a high level of interest” in the PG movie, which generated 84,897 Twitter posts on Friday and Saturday. (But not as loud as the PG-13 “Coming 2 America”, which became available to anyone with an Amazon Prime subscription on Friday and generated 243,769 tweets.)
Bob Chapek, Disney’s chief executive, said that even after the pandemic, Disney will release films in new ways, with some offered to theaters exclusively, some made available as “Raya and the Last Dragon” and others debuting exclusively (and without additional fee) on Disney +, which now has nearly 100 million subscribers worldwide. “I think the consumer is probably more impatient than ever,” Chapek said at a Morgan Stanley conference last week. “They had the luxury of an entire year receiving titles at home, almost whenever they want. And so I’m not sure if there is a return. “
Hollywood also paid close attention to the presentation of “Raya and the Last Dragon” in China. As Disney + does not operate there, the film reached theaters exclusively – Disney’s first major launch on the crucial market in six months. In China, where the coronavirus is largely under control, cinemas have been breaking box office records, even with capacity limits, an encouraging sign for a strong global recovery.
But “Raya” grossed only $ 8.4 million in China in the first three days, or about half of what Disney non-franchised films like “Zootopia” and “Moana” achieved before the pandemic. Even “Tom & Jerry” raised $ 12.2 million last month.
What happened? It was unclear to box office analysts on Sunday, with some assuming the subject of the film could have been an obstacle (dragons can be surprisingly complicated) and others pointing to a possible hangover from “Mulan”, who bombed China in September after a filming location created problems. For others, the cold reception has raised fears that the Chinese market has changed radically, with moviegoers now preferring local films like “Detective Chinatown 3” and “Oi, mama” to American imports. “Wonder Woman 1984” (Warner Bros.) has grossed $ 25.5 million in China since its release on December 18, about 70% less than its predecessor in the series in the summer of 2017.
Disney’s standard box office statement on Sunday noted that “Raya and the Last Dragon” performed better in China than two recent Pixar films: “Onward” reached about $ 2.8 million in ticket sales in August, and “Alma” grossed $ 5.5 million in December.
Last year, as the pandemic dragged on, Hollywood postponed the release of dozens of films and redirected others to streaming services. The studios cited one main reason: the number one box office market in North America – New York and its immediate suburbs – remained closed. The gradual reopening of cinemas in the area, which started on Friday, immediately cheered up the studios, with Sony accelerating the release of “Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway” and Paramount giving a similar treatment to “A Quiet Place Part II” .
“We are back!” the marquee at the IFC Center, an art film complex in Manhattan, opens on Saturday. Focus Features said “Promising Young Woman,” a revenge drama starring Carey Mulligan, performed particularly well in New York, selling out seats available in several cinemas. “Boogie”, another special Focus release, found 20 percent of its audience in the area, with the AMC Empire in Times Square as its primary location.
Theaters in San Francisco also reopened on Friday, leaving the Los Angeles area as the only major US market where theaters remain closed. About 80% of North American cinemas are now able to function.
Amy Chang Chien contributed research.