Although the nominal deadline for a US withdrawal is May 1, several defense officials told CNN that the US-led NATO alliance would like to see decisions made no later than April 1 due to the challenges of removing weapons and US equipment, amid concerns about some of it falling into the Taliban’s hands.
Since September 11, the United States has poured $ 864 billion and 2,400 lives into Afghanistan in search of a noble idea: to transform one of the poorest and most dangerous countries in the world into a self-sufficient democratic state led by a strong and stable Afghan government. which cannot be used as a stage to plan and launch terrorist attacks against other states.
“A corrupt and narcotic-powered Afghan state will never be a reliable partner capable of protecting itself or the interests of the United States and other donors,” Sopko said bluntly on Wednesday, presenting his report to the Center for Strategic Studies and International. The Afghan government’s only goal now is “survival,” said Sopko.
The country’s endemic corruption actively subverts the United States’ reconstruction efforts and can lead to total failure. Illegal opium trade in Afghanistan has flourished, as the United States and other countries have reduced efforts to combat narcotics and the Afghan government has done little to prevent trade. And then the coronavirus pandemic destroyed the modest 3% growth of the Afghan economy in 2019.
“The road to reconstruction – whatever the outcome of the current peace talks between Taliban insurgents and the Afghan government – has never been more risky,” the report concluded. The government, heavily dependent on international donors, will struggle to support itself or its armed forces in the event of a complete withdrawal of US troops or a further reduction in foreign aid. The Afghan government depends not only on the security and training provided by US forces, but also on the manpower and experience provided by thousands of Americans and other contractors.
Biden needs to decide in weeks
The focus is on May 1, the date on which the United States must withdraw all forces from Afghanistan under a peace agreement signed between the Trump administration and the Taliban. But any decision, from a complete withdrawal to an increase in troop levels, will require planning and coordination weeks before that date.
If the Biden government completes the withdrawal and removes the remaining 2,500 soldiers from Afghanistan, it will take a major effort to remove or destroy weapons, equipment and facilities that could fall into the Taliban’s hands, defense officials told CNN. While some equipment and locations may be handed over to the Afghan government, the uncertain future is hovering over all decisions for the time being.
This means that there is a desire for decisions to be taken no later than April 1, defense officials said. Since a potential full withdrawal is less than 30 days away, it may become more likely that weapons and equipment will have to be destroyed, possibly through the use of explosives.
The challenge is geographical. Although as much equipment as possible is placed on board an aircraft and flown in a final 30-day window, it is not feasible because of Afghanistan’s rugged mountainous terrain to withdraw by road, and there are no ports nearby. In contrast, during the 2011 withdrawal from Iraq, trains were able to move relatively easily on a route south of the country to Kuwait.
But, for now, there is no clarity about the next steps.
“We are working closely with the Afghan parties to encourage progress on a political settlement and a comprehensive ceasefire,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said on Tuesday. “We are also working diplomatically to mobilize regional and international support for peace. There is a long-standing consensus that there is no military solution to this conflict, and that the political solution … must be led by Afghans and owned by Afghans. “
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said that no final decision has been made and that the interagency review of options and policies continues.
USA proposed a power-sharing agreement
Blinken also proposed that Afghanistan’s neighbors, including Iran, take on a more important role and warned that the Biden government continues to assess the withdrawal of American troops.
The letter, sent by the US Special Representative for Afghanistan’s Reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad, offers a first real insight into the Biden government’s thinking about Afghanistan and seemed to reflect the frustration when Blinken wrote that he wanted Ghani to “understand the urgency of my tone” .
The situation in Afghanistan is thorny for Biden, who opposed an increase in the US presence there during the Obama administration and said he wants to lessen US involvement in the nearly 20-year conflict. Biden may face internal criticism if he does not proceed with the withdrawal, but at the same time, Afghanistan remains unstable, the Taliban have increased their control over wider areas of the country and the gains made by women and girls are at risk.
The United States has “plans on the shelf” on how to carry out a full withdrawal by May 1, if the order comes, a defense official told CNN. Those plans include giving some material to the Afghans, sending some home and destroying some, the official said. Even with the troop level dropping from 13,000 people about a year ago to 2,500 soldiers now, the rough estimate is that it would require a significant number of aircraft and a long effort in air transport.
However, there may be a mix of decisions, including extending the mission beyond May 1, or some kind of negotiated agreement to allow for a longer withdrawal.
Low troop levels – the lowest since 2001 – offer an important benefit. Because of several withdrawals in the past few months, years of excess inventory have already been reduced, the official said. Less clear is how long it would take for NATO allies to withdraw their 8,000 troops and material in a quick turnaround.
But peace is not a panacea for Afghanistan, warned Sopko. A comprehensive peace deal could require an additional $ 5.2 billion in new foreign aid by 2024, the report said.
“Instead of a peace dividend, the international donor community may be stuck with the bill,” said Sopko.
CNN’s Nicole Gaouette, Kylie Atwood and Jennifer Hansler contributed to this report.