LOS ANGELES – Two years ago, Democrats celebrated the conquest of seven parliamentary seats held by Republicans in California, as evidence of the party’s growing ability to compete in key districts here and across the country.
But this year, Republicans recovered four of those seats, even when Joseph R. Biden Jr. flooded President Trump in California. The defeats shocked the Democrats and contributed to the minimum margin the party will have in the House of Representatives in January.
The turnaround is testament to how competitive the seats are, especially in Orange County, which was once a bastion of conservative republicanism that has moved steadily through Democrats for the past 20 years.
But either way, the results were a setback for Democrats in this state and nationally, signaling the huge obstacles they will face in 2022 competing in the predominantly suburban swing districts that fueled the 2018 acquisition of the House.
The Democrats’ losses occurred for a variety of reasons, including California-specific forces and the complications of campaigning during a pandemic. But, above all, they reflected the strength of the Republican attacks, some of which were false or exaggerated, that Democrats were the party of socialism, depriving the police and abolishing private health insurance.
The attacks – led largely by Trump as a central part of his re-election strategy – came at a time when parts of California were swept away by street protests against police abuse and racial injustice, some of which turned to glass. devastating outbreaks of looting and clashes with law enforcement officials that were largely covered by local television.
“Republicans hung on Democrats’ necks that we are all socialists or communists and we all wanted to strip the police,” said Harley Rouda, an Orange County Democrat who was defeated by Michelle Steel, a Republican member of the Orange County board of supervisors. “In my opinion, we, as part, did less than adequate work in refuting this narrative. We won in 2018 and took the House back because people like me – moderates – drew radical Republican seats. “
Republicans said Democrats’ attempts to portray themselves as moderates were hampered by the party’s turn to the left and demonstrations.
“It was incredibly easy for us to draw contrasts,” said Jessica Millan Patterson, leader of the California Republican Party. She said the protests “were happening everywhere. It looked like a war zone. “
For all these reasons, the election results are the result of many factors – and this was particularly the case in a campaign that was waged against a deadly pandemic and with a polarizing figure like Trump dominating the political debate.
Democrats said they were also hampered by a national policy, defined by the party, to prevent door-to-door campaigns during the pandemic. This will presumably not be a factor in 2022.
“The # 1 issue in our campaign is that we didn’t campaign,” said Rep. TJ Cox, a Democrat who represents the San Joaquin Valley and lost to David Valadao, the Republican he ousted in 2018. “We didn’t do the door. at the door. “He said it was like playing for a football team who heard” they can’t pass “.
Christy Smith, a Democrat from northern Los Angeles County who failed to win a district her party captured in 2018, said she adhered to public health guidelines to her disadvantage. (The 2018 Democrat, Katie Hill, stepped down after being accused of having an improper relationship with a team member.)
“We couldn’t participate in a forum or city hall,” said Smith. “This is my favorite way to campaign.”
California’s often faltering efforts to combat Covid-19 have been damaging in Republican-trend districts, where there has been a public challenge to masquerade mandates and contempt for the state’s Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom.
“Everyone is concerned about Covid,” said Sam Oh, a Republican consultant to two of the Republican winners, Young Kim and Ms. Steel. “But we are trying to find a way to give small business owners a way to continue to earn a living. This is incredibly important and the Democrats don’t know what to say ”.
And Republicans, analysts said, have recruited strong candidates, which is always the most critical task in an election. They included Ms. Steel and Ms. Kim, who will be among the first Korean-American members of Congress, and Mike Garcia, a former military pilot who won a special election in May to replace Ms. Hill and then win the Mrs. Smith in November.
Democrats set their goals on seven seats held by Republicans in 2018 and won all of them, halving the size of the Republican delegation from the California Congress. This sweep suggested that Democrats were invading areas that were once Republican in the state, presenting a roadmap of how the party could compete in undecided districts across the country.
But Republicans have succeeded this time playing on themes that have long echoed among moderate voters, particularly in places like Orange County: high taxes, intrusive government and law and order. Democrats said the debates on the national scene hurt them, especially among Latin American and Asian American voters.
“I think we underestimated the strength of the attack,” said Dan Sena, who was the first Hispanic executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “The message of National Socialism, combined with the message of crime, was a death by a thousand cuts in a place like California.”
Smith said she was frustrated with trying to campaign in an environment “where Republicans are so persistent in false narratives” and that Democrats have been unable to figure out how to deal with it. “We never put our hands around it,” she said.
For California Republicans, the victories were a rare glimpse of good news for a party that is declining in this state. “Now we have a plan that shows that these really dynamic candidates can win with presidential participation, competing in a polarized environment,” said Oh. “We are in an incredibly good position in the future.”
In a possible sign of change, Newsom is facing a recall campaign, largely because of his way of dealing with the pandemic, and while it is unlikely that he will be removed from office and replaced by a Republican, it is certainly not impossible. . That’s how Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, became governor in 2003.
“California is at an inflection point,” said Patterson. “People are waking up to what Democrats are doing here. This was a referendum on what California’s Democrats have done and what the governor has done for this state. “
Republicans argued that the results here – and across the country – were strong evidence that many voters were rejecting policies that left-wing Democrats advocated.
“Democrats said they would win 10 to 15 seats in the House,” said Torunn Sinclair, press secretary for the Congressional Republican National Committee. “Obviously, they are missing something. You have to go back to those far-left policies that people just didn’t want. ‘Medicare for everyone’, excluding police funding. ”
Victory margins in California’s major districts were narrow for Democratic winners in 2018 and Republicans in 2020.
“These districts – including mine – were very difficult to change,” said Congresswoman Katie Porter, one of the Orange County Democrats who won in 2018 and was re-elected in 2020. “These are Republican districts. There would always be very competitive races. “
Darry Sragow, a Democratic strategist, said that the state Republican Party did not lose ground in 2020. “But it is very difficult to argue that they are better off,” he said. “These constituencies have always been Republicans until 2018, when Democrats chose them.”
The four losing Democrats are talking about seeking a rematch in 2022, although the district lines are about to be redesigned as part of the 10-year redistricting process that will take place before the next election. And the two sides said the races would be raging again.
“It was a pause,” said Cox, the San Joaquin Valley Democrat. “But remember that we lose less than 1%, without doing a field campaign. So it is not surprising that, with the factors at stake, we have fallen a little short. “