The Storm Prediction Center says there is a high chance of tornadoes – a level 5 out of 5 – in parts of the south. This is the worst and highest forecast issued for severe storms. And although it is very rare for the SPC to issue this kind of perspective – now it is the second time in a week to the south.
The SPC warns of “several long-haul tornadoes, destructive winds and very heavy hailstorms from the Lower Mississippi Valley, to the east in parts of the southeast and to the north in the valleys of Tennessee and Ohio.”
Some of the widespread winds will be “the force of a hurricane”, said the SPC, while some areas may see hail “baseball size”.
Long-haul tornadoes are tornadoes that remain in the ground for a long period of time. Most tornadoes stay on the ground for just a few minutes, but with some serious events, tornadoes can occur on the ground for hours. This type of tornado is known to cause widespread damage.
More than a million people are under great threat from tornadoes, including in cities like Decatur and Madison in Alabama and Florence in Mississippi.
More than seven million people are in areas with moderate tornado threat – a level 4 out of 5 – and that includes Memphis and Nashville in Tennessee, Birmingham and Huntsville in Alabama and Jackson, Mississippi.
“The ingredients will be combined on Thursday for another severe weather outbreak in the South,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. “The very humid air in the Gulf of Mexico combined with a strong upward movement will create several rounds of severe weather, including rotating storms that can produce tornadoes.”
The ingredients were there last week and the tornadoes came out, but not as strong as meteorologists thought possible. None of the 49 tornadoes was stronger than an EF-2 on a scale of 0 to 5.
Although the right atmospheric ingredients were present, they did not mix precisely enough to produce the violent tornadoes predicted last Thursday.
“It’s like if you put too many carrots in the chicken soup, you would end up getting a sweet carrot soup and not chicken soup,” said Myers.
The threat is greater this afternoon and night
Heavy storms will focus on Thursday in Deep South as the high-risk area of the storm is likely to expand and become more significant. Heavy storms will be possible from the Gulf Coast to the far north of Ohio.
Some stronger storms may be possible in this risky area on Thursday morning, but more active weather will start in the afternoon, when several supercell storms may form.
“Right now, the best potential for strong tornadoes seems to extend from parts of central MS / north to west / middle TN and center / north of AL, especially Thursday afternoon and evening, as storms generally move to the northeast, “said the SPC on Wednesday afternoon.
The forecast shows that atmospheric conditions will be ripe and “will support supercells with low-level mesocyclones capable of producing strong tornadoes and large hail,” said the SPC.
And it’s not just tornadoes: more than six million people were hit by a flood early Thursday in parts of Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and North Carolina. Rains of up to ten centimeters are expected in the region, with some areas seeing larger quantities.
During the early hours of Thursday, the storms are expected to evolve into a line as they spread across parts of Alabama and Georgia. On Friday, most of the South is expected to dry out, except for parts of Georgia and the Carolinas, where light rains and isolated storms can persist.
School systems are changing plans due to the climate
School districts across the region are changing their plans, dismissing students early, going to online learning and canceling classes before Thursday’s bad weather.
In Alabama, Anniston City Schools told parents through social media that students would have an E-day on Thursday. Gadsden City Schools announced they would be closed because of the storms.
Huntsville municipal schools are dismissing students earlier. Schools in Tuscaloosa County posted that they would have a day of remote learning for the entire system. Birmingham City Schools are also planning a full remote day for Thursday.
The Demopolis City school and Limestone County school officials also announced plans to drop classes early.
“If for some reason students run out of energy or the internet, they can do the job,” posted school district officials on social media. “The domes on each campus will also open tomorrow if anyone needs shelter.”
Robert Shackelford and Dave Alsup of CNN contributed to this report.