A guide to what you need to know

Viruses mutate all the time and it’s no surprise to experts that the coronavirus that emerged in China in late 2019 has undergone several significant mutations as the virus replicates and spreads.

But a new strain of the virus that has emerged in South Africa is causing concern. As a variant discovered in the UK in recent months, the one that emerged in South Africa is proving to be much more communicable.

Despite being able to spread more easily, until now, scientists do not believe that any of the new variants is more deadly. But being more communicable means that more people can be infected, and that can mean more serious infections and more deaths as a result.

Questions are being raised about whether coronavirus vaccines developed at breakneck speed last year, with Western pioneers being those developed by Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca, will be effective against significant mutations of the virus, such as how the one identified in South Africa.

Although scientists believe the UK variant is unlikely to affect the effectiveness of vaccines being launched in the West, there is more uncertainty about the South African strain.

Experts point out that there is still a lot we don’t know about the new strain, although it and the UK strain are being investigated and they urge people not to panic. Here’s what we know so far:

On December 18, South Africa announced the detection of a new variant of the coronavirus that was spreading rapidly in three provinces of the country and was becoming the dominant strain in the Eastern Cape, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces.

South Africa called the variant “501Y.V2” because of the N501Y mutation they found in the protein spike that the virus uses to enter cells in the body. This mutation, among others, was also found in the new strain that the United Kingdom identified in December (but is estimated to have been in circulation since September), both considered to increase the transmissibility of the virus, making it more efficient.

With UK and South African officials warning the World Health Organization (WHO) of the new mutations in December – both countries are known for their genomic sequencing, or “surveillance” of the virus – WHO noted that, although both variants have found in the UK (called “VOC-202012/01”, with VOC meaning “Variant of Concern”) and in South Africa share the N501Y mutation, they are different.

The South African variant carries two other mutations in the spike protein (E484K and K417N, among others) that are not present in the UK strain, and experts said it could affect the functioning of Covid-19 vaccines.

Some experts and health officials are concerned about the South Africa variant, now better known as “501.V2”. So far, it has only been found in a handful of cases, the WHO noted on Tuesday, although in an increasing number of countries, including the United Kingdom, France, Switzerland, Japan, Austria and Zambia.

Several countries have banned flights from South Africa (and the United Kingdom) as a result of new variants of the virus in an attempt to prevent its spread.

Earlier this week, UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the variant found in South Africa was of particular concern. “I am extremely concerned about the South African variant and that is why we have taken the steps we have taken to restrict all flights from South Africa,” he told the BBC’s “Today” program on Monday.

“This is a very, very significant problem … and it is even more problematic than the new UK variant,” he said, without further explanation.

On Tuesday, former FDA chief Dr. Scott Gottlieb warned that vaccination of Americans against Covid is more critical than ever, especially since the new variant in South Africa appears to inhibit antibody drugs and is spreading elsewhere.

“The South Africa variant is very worrying now because it looks like it could avoid some of our medical countermeasures, particularly antibiotic drugs,” Gottlieb told CNBC’s “The News with Shepard Smith” on Tuesday.

“At the moment, this strain seems to be prevalent in South America and Brazil, the two parts of the world, now, that are in the summer, but also experiencing a very dense epidemic, and this is worrying.”

In turn, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) noted on Sunday that scientists are investigating the variants “to better understand how easily they can be transmitted and whether the currently authorized vaccines will protect people against them. “.

“Currently, there is no evidence that these variants cause more serious illness or an increased risk of death. New information on the virological, epidemiological and clinical characteristics of these variants is rapidly emerging,” added the report.

As countries struggle to initiate vaccination programs, or to accelerate those already underway, such as the United Kingdom, experts noted that one of the greatest potential consequences of emerging variants is their “ability to escape natural or vaccine-induced immunity” .

“Both vaccination against natural infection and SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus) produce a ‘polyclonal’ response that targets various parts of the spike protein. The virus would likely need to accumulate multiple mutations in the spike protein to escape vaccine-induced immunity. or by natural infection, “noted the CDC on Sunday in its report on emerging variants.

The ability to escape vaccine-induced immunity is, for the CDC, the most worrying potential consequence of emerging strains “because, once a large proportion of the population is vaccinated, there will be immune pressure that can favor and accelerate the emergence of such variants , selecting for ‘escape mutants’. “

The CDC emphasized, however, that “there is no evidence that this is happening, and most experts believe that escape mutants are unlikely to arise due to the nature of the virus.”

How did it originate?

How and where these variants originated is unclear, experts point out, noting that it is unfair to “blame” countries for mutations, since they could have originated anywhere, but have been discovered by certain countries “looking for them”, that is, those who perform advanced virus surveillance and are therefore likely to find more mutations.

The UK variant, for example, was found by the ‘Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium’, which performs random genetic sequencing of positive Covid-19 samples across the UK. Since its creation in April 2020, the consortium has sequenced 170,256 virus genomes from people infected with Covid-19. It uses the data to track outbreaks and identify variant viruses, and publishes its data weekly.