Connecting the dots in a Kirk Cousins exchange with the San Francisco 49ers and a meeting with Kyle Shanahan is one of the easiest scenarios to set up for those who like to sell on such speculation at this time of year. In fact, the rumors have been around for some time. This would assume that the Niners were looking for someone to replace Jimmy Garoppolo, of course.
It also assumes that Minnesota Vikings are interested in leaving Cousins.
The conjecture about this juicy angle gained considerable strength when it was widely reported that the Niners were one of the teams interested in acquiring Matthew Stafford. There were even some reports that the 49ers were close to closing a deal. Unfortunately, Stafford is on his way to the Los Angeles Rams now in the first of several NFL box office hits
As Luke Braun brilliantly pointed out on Monday, the Rams essentially had to scrap a choice in the first round to get Stafford and include another first and third round for the Detroit Lions to get Jared Goff and his heavy contract out of his hands. And when you take into account that the choices of the first round are postponed until 2022 and 2023, in addition to the fact that the Rams must be a very good team in the coming years, those first ones are more like those of the second round.
However, Stafford’s trade helped establish the commercial value for really good NFL quarterbacks – although not elite. It is the same bucket where reasonable minds can agree to place Cousins. Some of his statistics indicate that he has been better than just “very good”, but his inability to carry a team as top quarterbacks suggests that these statistics can be misleading to some extent. What? Misleading statistics? Never!
It is important to note that Stafford’s trade also confirmed the notion that San Francisco is, in fact, in the market for a new quarterback. New reports and speculation on that front continued this week – again linking Cousins to the Niners.
An example:
The plot is getting complicated, friends.
The easiest thing for Vikings to do in this off-season, as I indicated earlier, would be to bet on the healthy return of their injured defensive stars, solve some special team problems through free agency and add some pieces to the draft. Sure, some players may give up or restructure for wage cap purposes, but overall, a conservative off-season seems to be the most likely way forward.
Easypeasy. Back to the playoff hunt.
If the Vikings were to demolish everything and start a rebuild, the clues would already be apparent – starting with a new head coach. Mike Zimmer is still the captain of the ship and is not in the mood for a rebuild. There is no appetite at the Vikings’ headquarters for a makeover, and they are in no position to make noise at the free agency due to the wage cap situation. Some people try to convince you that the salary cap is a canard, that there is always an alternative solution. To some extent, this may be true. On the other hand, there are a lot of other teams that don’t need limit gymnastics to throw money at free agents in this off-season, putting them at a decisive advantage over teams with few resources like the Vikings.
However, a dull and relatively quiet off-season is not the only way forward. It’s probably Rick Spielman’s Plan A. But Plan B or C may come into play now that a market for Cousins has been established.
Let’s not forget that the new general manager of the Denver Broncos is George Paton, who was stolen from the Vikings’ board last month. The Broncos were also involved in Stafford’s trade openings, so a quarterback update is also for them. These points are as simple to connect as in the Cousins-to-the-49ers scenario. Spielman and Paton are friends and could close a deal in a relatively short time if both sides were willing.
Could a cousin bidding war happen?
That would change everything. Screw the “boring off-season” plan. If you are Spielman and have one or two teams looking seriously for a quarterback like Cousins, you need to at least entertain the idea, even considering whether to leave him or not. In either scenario, San Francisco or Denver, Spielman could get some choices in the draft. And we all know how much Rick likes picks. In addition, Vikings could get rid of being harmed by Cousins’ huge contract, albeit with market value.
That would be just one of the big dominoes, of course. More would be needed if the Cousins were exchanged. Would Handsome Jimmy G become the quarterback of the Vikings’ bridge for a rookie – someone they might be able to withdraw some newly acquired capital to move in the first round and acquire?
Or could the delicious, creamy nougat at the center of the Vikings’ off-season become a tasty trade bringing Deshaun Watson to Minnesota?
Suffice it to say that if Spielman moves from what I consider a conservative Plan A to the off-season towards one where Cousins is transferred, things will be a little less “boring” at the Vikings’ headquarters. In fact, it would be just the opposite.
Now, let’s issue a Trade Watch, not a Trade Warning. The conditions for a deal with Cousins are more favorable than they were a few weeks ago. To be safe, Vikings fans must make sure that their backs and trays are in an upright position and that their seat belts are properly adjusted. Things could (keyword: could) take off quickly.