The Guardian
Covid’s weary California effort to remember Newsom could be a rallying cry for Republicans
Analysis: More than a serious effort to oust the governor, it is likely to be a strategy to bring voters together, boost Republican candidates and raise funds Gavin Newsom makes his third state speech at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California, on March 9 2021. Photo: Allen J Schaben / Los Angeles Times / Rex / Shutterstock Almost a year after Gavin Newsom became the first American governor to issue a state order to stay home to fight the coronavirus, the California leader said his “ state status ”address of an empty Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. “We are going to allow ourselves to dream of better days ahead,” Newsom said on Tuesday. It was a stimulating conversation for the state – and for itself. America’s most populous state is emerging from its deadliest pandemic phase, having lost more than 56,000 to Covid-19. Black and Latino communities face the worst of the crisis. Companies have struggled to survive blocking restrictions. Many public schools have been closed since last March. And the initially clumsy implementation of the vaccine in the state has only recently picked up speed. Capitalizing on the growing frustrations of residents economically devastated and fatigued by the pandemic, Newsom’s fiercest critics have set up a recall campaign and are prepared to send, by Wednesday, the necessary 1.5 million voter signatures to trigger the vote. Campaign organizers say they have already found more than enough sponsors and have collected heavy checks from business developers, venture capitalists and Trump supporters. State officials have yet to verify the petition’s signatures, but political analysts say a revocation election for governor later this year seems more or less inevitable. “There will be a revocation election – in a nutshell,” said Mindy Romero, the founder of the Center for Inclusive Democracy, a non-partisan research organization. “What is more complicated,” she said, “are the reasons.” In California – one of 19 states that allow voters to remove elected officials before their terms expire – calling a revocation election is easy enough. The only requirement is to collect a number of signatures equal to 12% of voters in the last election for the position. “So putting this up for the vote is not an impossible feat,” said Joshua Spivak, senior research fellow at the Hugh L Carey Institute for Government Reform at Wagner College and a specialist in recalls. “For opponents of the governor, it is really attractive as something worth trying.” In 2020 alone, 11 calls from various officials were put to the vote and eight employees were removed from office as a result, Spivak said. Recall petitions have been launched against all California governors in the past 61 years – although they have almost never been successful. Gray Davis, the only California governor who has ever been recalled, was in a much more precarious position in 2003, at the height of an electricity crisis, facing a $ 38 billion budget deficit. He lost the call to Arnold Schwarzenegger, who entered the race with a higher profile than any of the Republicans who would face Newsom this year. Republicans had already tried and failed five times to get Newsom recalled, when his sixth attempt, led by retired deputy sheriff Orrin Heatlie, started to gain momentum last year. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, a judge gave Heatlie and his supporters more time to collect signatures. While Newsom enacted restrictions last winter in an attempt to stem the deadliest wave of the pandemic, the recalls were able to gather an anti-lockdown base and win over other Californians struggling to cope with the pandemic’s prolonged and devastating economic impact. It didn’t help Newsom’s case that at about the same time, the governor met with a dozen of his closest friends and lobbyists for a lavish dinner at Napa’s French Laundry. “Whenever an elected official is serving in a crisis, the situation is precarious,” said Romero. “In the face of the pandemic, it would be shocking if the governor and elected officials did not receive any negative reaction.” Amid the chaotic launch of the vaccine in the state, Newsom’s poll numbers plummeted. A third of voters polled by the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, in late January, rated how the governor handled the pandemic well, while 44% said he was doing poorly. But two months have passed since the last round of major polls, and Democratic strategists are hopeful. “I think as we start to reopen schools, as we start getting people back to work, as we get more people vaccinated, I think voters will take note,” said Drexel Heard, a Democratic political strategist based on Los Angeles . “Next month, some baseball stadiums could be reopened,” he added – which could take the strength out of a recall effort fueled by anti-lockdown fervor. Romero said he was skeptical that legitimate frustrations with the governor over state policies, school and business closings, his disastrous inefficiency in distributing unemployment benefits and his careless implementation of vaccines would irritate moderate Democrats and Republicans enough to get him out of office. . just a year before his term expires. More than a serious effort to topple Newsom, the recall effort is probably more of a strategy to bring Republican voters together, boost Republican candidates and raise funds. “The recall can be a rallying cry, in California and across the county,” said Romero. “For Republican candidates running against the governor, it can raise their national profile.” In a revocation election, voters answer two questions: first, whether they want to revoke Newsom, and then who should replace him? With Democrats highly unlikely to run for a candidate in the election, liberal and moderate voters who are frustrated with Newsom would be left to choose among Republicans with whom they would agree even less. The main candidates to replace Newsom include former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer; conservative activist Mike Cernovich; and John Cox, who lost to Newsom in 2018 by 23 points, the biggest margin in a race for governor of California since the 1950s. Recall activists said their effort has wide appeal. More than a third of the signers of the recall petition identify themselves as Democrats or independents, or have refused to declare their party affiliation, said Randy Economy, a conservative announcer and former Trump campaign official with the Newsom recall campaign. “We have a furious electorate now” and the campaign is adding to its frustration, he told the Guardian. But in a deeply blue state where less than a quarter of registered voters are Republicans, remember far-right proponents, anti-immigrants, anti-homeless housing, anti-sex education and a gun control platform are likely to alienate most voters, political experts said. The virtual city hall on Wednesday night presented a conservative-aligned California Election Integrity Project presentation, where speakers listed spurious allegations of electoral fraud in line with Donald Trump and his supporters. “To gain relevance in California, Republicans must renounce Trump, they must renounce white supremacy,” said Mike Madrid, a former political director for the state Republican party that co-founded the conservative Lincoln Project. “The hyperpartisan recall shows that, instead, they are happy to continue down the drain.” Newsom largely avoided public discussion of the recall effort. “The Republican recall is a party attempt to install a Trump supporter as governor,” said Dan Newman, Newsom’s political strategist. The governor mentioned the recall effort only indirectly in his speech at Dodger Stadium. “I just want you to know, we are not going to change course, just because of some pessimists and apocalyptics.” he said.