Gonzaga puts his invincibility at stake in the WCC Conference tournament against Saint Mary’s.
Saint Mary’s managed to squeal Loyola Marymount in the quarterfinals, but it was a difficult season for the Gaelic. They are only 14-8 in the season and have been fighting on the offensive side of the field. They were eliminated by Gonzaga less than a month ago and need to win the WCC tournament to make the NCAA tournament, so Monday night will be a difficult task for Saint Mary.
When Saint Mary’s has the ball
It has been a real offensive fight for the Gaelic this season, as they have an abysmal average of 0.91 points for possession during the conference game. The main problem is that they are kicking the ball very badly on the field. Gaels shoot only 27.6% in the three-point range and 46.9% in the two-point range, which is a big problem when you’re trying to keep up with the best attack in the country.
The Gaelics averaged just 0.90 points for possession in their two encounters with Gonzaga this season. In both meetings, they failed to score within an average of less than 45%. Saint Mary’s only chance of winning this match is to slow down and keep Gonzaga in midfield. Gaelics are in 349th place in set time, according to KenPom, so look for them to try to use the entire shooting clock in the attack.
Gonzaga’s defense has stifled WCC opponents this season, allowing just 0.89 points for possession. They allow only 45.4% of the two-point range during the conference game and allowed their opponents to shoot only 56.1% in attempts at the ring, according to Hoop-Math. If Saint Mary’s fails to hit anything from the bottom, it is difficult to see how they will break the 60 points.
When Gonzaga has the ball
The Bulldogs’ attack has been impossible to stop this season because they have elite scorers all over the ground. Four of his five players holding a double-digit average of the season, and both strikers – Drew Timme and Corey Kispert – are on the verge of averaging 20 points each.
Gonzaga’s attack dominates in all statistical categories, which makes it extremely difficult to defend. Bulldogs have an average of 1.21 points for possession during the WCC game, and most of their score comes from within.
Gonzaga dominates his opponents on the inside for having the best percentage of shots from two points in the country and an average of 74% in attempts to kick the hoop, by Hoop-Math. However, Santa Maria’s defense was able to keep them at their lowest point this season in one of their encounters.
The Gaelic defense is the reason why they are above 0.500, as they are allowing 0.97 points for possession during the conference game. They are also 12th in the country in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
The reason Santa Maria’s defense is so good is because they defend painting at an elite level. Gaelics allow only 45.1% of pitches in the two-point range and 50.7% in attempts to throw on the edge, which is the eighth best mark in the country. Therefore, they are well equipped to deal with Gonzaga.
Saint Mary’s plays a kind of packaging line defense that prevents opponents from reaching the edge and forces teams to shoot three points to beat them. In order for Gonzaga to accumulate his usual 80 points or more in the attack, they will have to shoot well in the background.
Analysis and choice of bets
Gonzaga’s attack was elite throughout the season, but he has struggled a little against Saint Mary. I think Gaelic are able to keep Bulldogs under 80 points due to their internal defense and extremely slow pace. On the other hand, your anemic attack is going to have a lot of problems trying to score from the inside.
I only have 136.77 points projected for this game, so I think there is some value in Below 143.5 points (FanDuel).
Choice: Less than 143.5 | Play up to 141