WASHINGTON – Former President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial begins this week, returning the recently deceased leader to the limelight.
As in his first impeachment trial a year ago, it will be difficult for Democrats to muster the two-thirds majority of the Senate needed to convict him. But the trial must still absorb the country’s attention.
The case is based on a single House-approved charge led by Democrats with the support of 10 Republicans: that Trump incited the deadly attack on January 6 on the United States Capitol.
Even though Trump was defeated for reelection last year, the stakes for the trial are high for the country and for a Republican Party that is tied to him, as long as he remains popular with his main voters and has the option to run for president again. .
As of Sunday night, the structure of the trial and possible witnesses had not yet been announced.
Here are five things to note when it starts:
How many Republicans will vote to condemn?
In Trump’s first impeachment trial a year ago, only one Republican voted to convict, Senator Mitt Romney of Utah, the party’s presidential candidate in 2012. If Democrats unanimously vote to convict him again, at least 17 Republicans they would have to join them to succeed.
This is a high barrier.
The most likely targets, besides Romney, are Ben Sasse from Nebraska, Susan Collins from Maine, Lisa Murkowski from Alaska and Pat Toomey from Pennsylvania. (Sasse and Collins just won re-election, Toomey is not running for re-election in 2022 and Murkowski criticized Trump’s actions.)
Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., Said he will keep an open mind, unlike a year ago, when he declared the effort dead before the process began.
Some GOP leaders are, again, telegraphing failure.
“At this point, there will be no conviction. You can read the writing on the wall,” said John Barrasso of Wyoming, the third Senate Republican, recently on CNN.
Are senators going to withdraw a procedural procedure?
Many Republican senators have already demonstrated that they don’t want to defend Trump, but they also don’t want to vote to condemn him.
And that is why it appears that a significant number of Republicans will try to adopt a procedure instead of justifying Trump’s actions on the basis of merit.
Many have argued that the trial is unconstitutional because Trump is no longer president, disagreeing with scholars who have studied the subject and say it is valid.
Last month, 45 Republicans voted in favor of a motion by Senator Rand Paul, R-Ky., Aimed at rejecting the trial as unconstitutional. They included McConnell, whose vote is crucial to any hope of a conviction.
what, if anything, will we hear Trump?
Trump is now without the tool he used during the previous impeachment trial to try to influence the process: his Twitter account.
On the second day of his trial in 2020, Trump pumped 140 tweets, including retweets, into his timeline. Your account is now suspended, along with your Facebook and Instagram accounts. As a result, your lawyers are likely to bear the burden.
Democrats asked Trump to personally witness, an offer that his lawyers declined. Within its orbit, there has been disagreement over whether to repeat his baseless claims that the election was stolen or whether to push the procedural argument that appeals to Republican senators.
Their lawyers, David Schoen and Bruce Castor Jr., have indicated that they will do the latter, stating in their writing that impeachment is “unconstitutional and should be extinguished with prejudice”.
How will Democrats approach a skeptical Senate?
Managers say they have an open and closed case. But they also know they are dealing with a Senate that includes many who want to absolve Trump for fear of losing their political careers.
The impeachment administrators’ report, led by Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, argues that Trump is “solely responsible for the violence and destruction that unfolded at our headquarters on January 6”.
They will try to link the mutiny points to Trump’s rhetoric, falsely claiming that the election was stolen and his incentive to rioters.
Notably, the Democrats’ report also includes a section arguing that claims of unconstitutionality are “wrong” and “dangerous”. They say the authors of the constitution did not want the country to be “virtually defenseless against a president’s betrayal in his final days” or to create a “January exception” to impeachment or anything else in the constitution.
No chief justice. Leahy presides. Harris breaks ties.
For the first time, the president of the court will not preside over a presidential impeachment trial. As Trump is no longer in the White House, that task will be left to Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., The Senate pro tempore president.
“It will be interesting,” said Leahy at the end of last week. “I’ve been reading hundreds of pages of material in preparation – and I spend this weekend getting ready for it.”
Two steps ahead of Leahy in the line of succession to the presidency is Vice President Kamala Harris, who may also be present at the trial. Although she is not a constant presence, Democratic aides say she may be needed to break ties in procedural votes if they split 50-50, and she is unlikely to travel away from Washington until she finishes.