Welcome to the Conference Championship on Sunday! Our first clash is one with two of the greatest defenders of all time, with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers hosting Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There are, of course, other stars across the field, from Davante Adams and Aaron Jones to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and from Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith to Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. There are even incredibly intriguing clashes on the offensive and defensive fronts, as this game also includes some of the best line players in the league.
This must be a fascinating game, so let’s look at things.
How to watch
Meeting: Sunday, January 24 | Time: 3:05 pm Eastern Time
Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
TV: Fox | Chain: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
When privateers have the ball
Let’s cut out some sections from last week’s Rams-Packers preview, which are equally relevant here:
Green Bay checked a fairly solid 18th in Rush Defense DVOA this season, but a more worrying 23rd in Adjusted Line Yards, indicating that the Packers most often lost the battle in the trenches …
In their three defeats this season, the Packers have rendered 158, 173 and 140 run yards, for opponents who have averaged 4.5, 5.1 and 3.8 yards per attempt. The Colts recovered in the second half, paving the way for field goals and increasing defense. Tampa’s initial lead came through a pick-six and another interception came back to the 2-yard line, so it was only Minnesota that really came out and just ran the ball down Green Bay’s throat since the jump. But even the Vikings definitely did not take the lead until the third quarter, and did not keep things until Dalvin Cook made a screen pass 50 meters from the house.
Can the Bucs jump into an initial lead again this time, if they just take Leonard Fournette and / or Aaron Jones down the Packers? The Rams tried to do this with Cam Akers, but fell behind because their defense allowed two touchdowns and a field goal in Green Bay’s first three moves in the game. They managed to keep Akers involved the rest of the way, but when you fall by two points, your entire offensive pace is out of control.
The Bucs tried to compete early and often against the Saints last week, and it didn’t really work for them. Only when they switched to a more pass-centered attack did they start hanging crooked numbers on the scoreboard – but even that required a great deal of defense help, configuring them with short fields. Tom Brady didn’t exactly tear things up, playing for only 199 yards in 33 attempts.
But the defense of the Green Bay pass is not as solid as that of the Saints. The Packers have Jaire Alexander to potentially accompany Mike Evans and the combination of Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark up front, but there are more places to take advantage of Green Bay’s coverage than New Orleans. If Alexander follows Evans, that puts Kevin King in Antonio Brown on the opposite side, and Chandon Sullivan in Chris Godwin in the slot. These seem to be the most likely matches. Godwin in Sullivan would be a big advantage for the Buccaneers, as would Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate against any of the linebackers the Bucs can face. (It is a less obvious advantage if the Packers use their security devices on the roof).
Exploiting any of these advantages, however, requires winning the battle along the line. Tampa has one of the best offensive lines of pass protection in the NFL this season, largely keeping the adrenaline out of Brady’s face and allowing him to play from a clean pocket. If they give him time against this secondary Packers, he will find openings. But if the Smiths and / or Gary start to force Brady out of his place, and he has to buy time or pull himself together after maneuvering in his pocket, that’s where the Packers can have the advantage. Tampa may keep the passing race unbalanced with game and action passes, but the Packers would probably be fine with the Bucs deciding to run instead of shooting. They would rather be defeated by Fournette and Jones than by Brady, one might think.
When the Packers have the ball
The Buccaneers ended this season, as well as last season, with one of the best NFL saves. Tampa ranked sixth in allowed yards, eighth in allowed points and fifth in defensive efficiency, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. But, like last year, the Bucs’ defensive success was built on their ability to stop the race: they took first place in the defense DVOA in each of the past two seasons. For this reason, it seems unlikely that this will be a game controlled by Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon – even though Alvin Kamara dropped a few times on the floor last week.
Because of this focus on the race, however, Bucs can be defeated in the air. In fact, they apparently encourage the launch of opposing offenses, based on their alignment. According to Pro Football Focus and Tru Media, privateers used at least seven defenders in the area in 59 percent of their defensive snaps, about 5 percent more often than the average league team (54.2 percent percent). The same applies to the use of cabins for eight people: Tampa lined up that way 31.6% of the time, compared to a league average of 25.5%.
The more defenders in the area, the more advantageous it is for the opponent to pass instead of run. This remained true against Bucs, with opponents posting their best EPA rates per game against Tampa’s eight-man boxes via Tru Media.
Well, do Bucs really want to play a defense that encourages Packers to put the ball in the hands of Aaron Rodgers, instead of Jones, Williams and Dillon? I’m sure not. But that has been Tampa’s philosophy for most of the past two years. They were able to succeed with that because they do such a good job of ending opponent racing games and receiving pressure on opponents’ defenders. The Bucs pushed QB into 36.3 percent of their losses this season, a rate that far exceeded the league average of 30.7 percent.
Can they keep up the pressure on the Packers? It is usually easier said than done. Rodgers was the second least pressured quarterback in the league this season, with rushers hitting his face just 23.8% of the time. And it’s not like he got rid of the ball too quickly for the rush to get there. His average time of 2.78 seconds to launch, by PFF, was around the league average of 2.76 seconds. It has incredible protection for passes. Of course, the team’s best pass protector was left to face David Bakhtiari, who is now out for the season after tearing up his ACL. The Packers resisted very well without him last week, but A. the strength of the Rams’ quick pass is on the inside, not the edge; and B. Aaron Donald was injured and was clearly not himself. This week could be a bigger challenge for the front guys, with Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and more flying over the edge.
The Packers must also have some considerable confrontational advantages in the passing game. Davante Adams is practically uncertain, as he showed last week against Jalen Ramsey. Bucs may or may not use Carlton Davis to follow him, but it seems unlikely to matter. Adams will win whoever Tampa puts in front of him. But Green Bay should also have advantages with Robert Tonyan over the middle (the Bucs were 25th in the DVOA against shots for tight ends), as well as Jones and Williams outside the backfield (only two teams allowed more passes for running backs). With so many options for Rodgers, Packers should be able to move the ball.
Of course, the answer to that is that all the words were also true when the Packers and Bucs played earlier in the season, and the Bucs came to a 38-10 win. A repetition seems somewhat unlikely, however. The Packers really led the game 10-0 and seemed to be in a difficult situation, only for Rodgers to be annihilated by Sean Murphy-Bunting and almost hit by Jamel Dean in the next possession. He would only launch three more interceptions throughout the year. The safe bet is for him to take care of the ball and chop things up.
Most recent odds:
Green Bay Packers -3.5
Prediction: Packers 27, Buccaneers 21