The result was predetermined. The Republican response was not.
As the House spent the day speaking, everyone knew that Nancy Pelosi had votes for Donald Trump’s impeachment – ensuring, at least, that he went to history books as the only president to suffer that fate twice.
But there was lingering doubt about how many Republican lawmakers would follow the example of Liz Cheney, the third-tier Republican, who dramatically broke with her party to support impeachment with a forceful statement about Trump’s “betrayal” of the post.
This may have been partly personal – her father, Dick Cheney, called her in the locker room to say that Trump attacked her in his speech before the riot – and partly a matter of conscience.
Majority leader Steny Hoyer repeatedly quoted Cheney in his closing comments.
In the 232-197 vote, 10 Republicans joined each Democrat in support of impeachment. It is a small fraction, although probably twice what it would have been without Cheney’s defection, but it gave the process a bipartisan flavor.
The other big surprise of the day: minority leader Kevin McCarthy holding Trump responsible, even as he defended a censorship resolution. “The president is responsible for Wednesday’s attack on Congress by mafia rebels,” he said in plenary. “He should have immediately reported the mob when he saw what was going on.”
McCarthy is under strong pressure from party members, dissatisfied with the way he handled the consequences of the attack. Clearly, some Republicans are torn between supporting their president and showing voters that they want responsibility for the violent invasion of the people’s home.
And yet, it is Mitch McConnell’s maneuver that still leaves Washington reeling. On Tuesday, his team leaked to the New York Times, Fox News and other media outlets that he believes Trump committed impeachable crimes and is pleased that the House is moving forward. Then, CBS reported yesterday, based on “a close person” to the Republican leader, that he supports the impeachment, but will make no comment until the House formally lodges the accusation.
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After lighting the match, the senator had to deal with the smoke. McConnell issued a statement saying “although the press is full of speculation, I have not made a final decision on how I will vote and I intend to hear the legal arguments when they are presented to the Senate”. He has to say that, of course, or he will be accused of prejudging the evidence.
If McConnell eventually embraces impeachment, it raises the possibility – for the first time, in fact – that 17 Republican senators could vote to condemn Trump. It would be a much easier vote if the leader of the Republican bench, who blames the president for the loss of the majority, participated.
That’s why I remain skeptical. Trump remains very popular among the bases, and any senator who voted to condemn him would alienate part of his base and would likely face a primary challenge supported by the former president. I also don’t believe McConnell would win the vote – which means he would let his colleagues vote for their consciences, rather than pressure them to support the leadership line.
Watching the debate in the House yesterday, it was amazing how many members spoke about their personal reactions to the insurrection, some saying they fear for their lives. These fears were very real, especially considering what we have since learned about the organized nature of the siege and the intention to commit murder.
One Democrat after another spoke of Trump inciting violence; Cori Bush of Missouri called him “white chief supremacist”. One Republican after another called the action an unprecedented “farce”, as Ronny Jackson of Texas said, and an attempt at revenge.
Each side accused the other of destroying political unity. Republicans said Democrats opposed the Electoral College results for George W. Bush and Trump; Democrats said they were symbolic protests long after John Kerry and Hillary Clinton conceded.
Outside, the photos showed troops of the National Guard, who were supposed to be there last week, napping on the marble floor, a reminder that the Capitol is still on the warpath.
Democrats justified their urgent work – without a hearing, without the ability to amend the article accusing Trump of incitement – by saying that Trump represents such a clear and present danger that he should be removed from office as soon as possible.
But that argument has been weakened by the fact that the Senate trial will not end until Trump has already stepped down – and the continuing confusion over when Democrats will submit the case to the upper house.
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In addition to the political countercurrent, it seems strange to condemn a former president who will already be back in Mar-a-Lago. (McConnell’s office says no trial will begin before the inauguration.)
Democrats naturally want to keep the next vote that would prevent him from running again, at 78, four years from now. The downside for Democrats is that all of this will distract and overshadow the next Biden administration, with Covid-19 now killing up to 4,400 Americans a day.
Meanwhile, Trump without Twitter issued an old-fashioned statement – sending an email to the press – and a video orchestrated by White House advisers. He said in the statement that “in light of reports of further demonstrations, I urge that there should be NO violence, NO violation of the law and NOT vandalism of any kind. This is not what I stand for and it is not what the United States stands for.”
This is a far more positive message than Trump’s “witch-hunting” rhetoric just a day earlier.