8 things to know about Sunday’s NJ Nor’easter

3.) Where is the snow target?

The keys to the success of this forecast are to discover:
1.) Who will receive a mixture of winter or direct rain, and how long will it last?
2.) Who will see the heaviest snow streaks?

My newest snow map (above) is my estimate of how these two factors will develop.

—The Sweet Spot … It appears that the NJ Turnpike corridor through the southern and central New Jersey interior will see the greatest snowfall and 4 to 6+ inches of snow accumulation. (Behind the scenes, I debated how to label this area 4-8 “ or even a direct ~ 6 “. I would not discard 8 “of snow at some points – there are even more disparate scenarios of up to 10” or 12 “- but I am thinking that the mixing problem and the range uncertainty make 6” a much more likely estimate for widespread Snow fall.)

“Very hot on the coast …” Although our initial snow predictions looked promising to snow lovers along the Jersey Shore, it is now clear that the mix of rain and winter will eventually crush these winter dreams. I expect the green zone on the map to see mainly rain and / or a mixture of melted snow from the beginning until noon on Sunday, losing most of the “momentum” of the storm. There is a chance of snow in the afternoon, with limited accumulations possible due to the intensity of light snowfall and the wet soil at that time.

—North Jersey Too Far … The far north of New Jersey will be spared the worst of this coastal storm. You will still see some snow, on the order of 5 to 10 cm. But the heaviest snow must stay to the south – it is not a guarantee, but it is where the model consensus points to.

4.) What about the maneuver factor?

No forecast is complete without a measure of confidence, a statement of how “stuck” the predicted scenario is.

In this case, I would say that trust is High that we’ll see moderate to heavy snow accumulations across much of New Jersey. The storm would have to move a lot to make a complete mistake.

Trust is medium that the snow totals will mirror the map I drew above. If heavy mesoscale snow streaks form 40 kilometers in any direction, it will obviously affect those who see the most snow. If the temperatures (either on the surface or at the top) are just a few degrees off expectations, we can see more (or less) mixtures along coastal areas.

So the forecast is clearer than before, for sure. And the fact is that generalized 6-inch snow will always have significant winter impacts. But let’s also remember that this forecast is still very sensitive to the exact storm track, which in fact is still subject to fluctuations.

5.) What warnings and notices have been issued?

The National Meteorological Service issued a Winter storm alert for the following times and counties:
—4: 00 am to Sunday: 7 pm … northwest counties of Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, west of Monmouth, Morris, Salem and Somerset.
—6 in the morning from Sunday to Sunday, 21 … counties of Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Eastern Passaic and Union.

A less serious, less urgent, less dangerous Winter weather warning is posted to:
—4: 00 am to Sunday: 7 pm… Atlantic counties, southeast Burlington, Cape May, Cumberland, Monmouth, Ocean, Sussex, and Warren coast.
—6am Sunday to 9pm Sunday… Western Passaic County.

6.) Any wind or coastal flooding?

Do not.

Wind gusts can reach 30 mph, especially after the storm when the arctic air blows from the northwest.

The storm will move so quickly that it will not have the opportunity to shake our ocean. Storm waves of a few centimeters should not cause coastal flooding problems. (Especially since our astronomical tide is relatively low now, due to the waning crescent moon.)

7.) What is the final result?

It will snow. It is a fast-moving storm system that goes in and out in about 12 hours. Expect wintry weather from early Sunday morning until late afternoon. This snow will be heavy for a while, away from the coast. Certainly with a shovel for most of the state. Probably washable.

The trip will be difficult during the height of the storm, due to low visibility and poor traction. Hopefully, the teams will have enough time to clear snow on Monday morning. (Remember that plowing operations will take much longer in areas with a foot of snow on the ground due to Monday’s storm.)

I suspect that the affected schools would tend more towards a delayed opening (or virtual learning day) situation, if anything, rather than a direct “snowy day” closure. (Sorry, kids.) For any decision makers reading this, you should make the call as recent as possible, based on your own local conditions and policies on Sunday night and / or Monday morning.

8.) What’s next?

For the third weekend in a row, I’m getting into the mood for the weekend. (This is the season!) I look forward to bringing you the latest forecasts before and during this winter storm, at the 14 stations that make up the Townsquare New Jersey Weather Network.