1. Introduction
The United States is in a hot mess now. Well, maybe I should say cold mess. Arctic air invaded everything except Florida and the southwestern desert. A strong winter storm in the middle of the country has generated alerts that extend from the Canadian border in Washington to the Mexican border in Texas. At least 33 of the 48 contiguous states have some type of alert, watch or winter notice in place on Saturday.
And that includes New Jersey, of course. As we discussed throughout the week, our next storm system is no incredibly powerful or well organized. And it will definitely not be a big snow generator for New Jersey. But it will reach a specific temperature profile that leads to an icy mixture of hail and freezing rain. And even a light cover of ice is enough to make conditions very slippery and treacherous.
We are also still tracking two more storm systems targeting New Jersey next week. There have been some interesting developments in the latest models.
2.) Time
-Begin… The precipitation of the winter mix will arrive from southwest to northeast between late Saturday morning (10am) and early afternoon (2pm)
-Impact… The strongest precipitation and the greatest threat to ice conditions will occur from late Saturday afternoon (3 pm) to late evening (10 pm)
-End… Adverse weather conditions are expected to improve gradually on Sunday morning (6am to noon)
3.) Accumulations
-Snow… Up to an inch possible (although unlikely), especially in the far north.
-Ice… About a tenth of an inch for most of the state. Except for the far north and along the immediate coast.
-Rain… Up to 0.30 “of simple rain can fall, especially along the immediate coast.
4.) Impacts
Ice is an unpleasant business. Freezing rain, in particular, would be the worst case scenario here. Remember, it looks, feels, smells and tastes like normal liquid rain until it reaches a sub-freezing surface. Then it instantly freezes on solid ice. Instant skating rink.
With hail and / or freezing rain, untreated surfaces become very slippery very quickly, increasing the likelihood of vehicle accidents and injuries from slips and falls. Vehicles wrapped in an ice sheet can be difficult to enter. Heavy ice can bring down branches, trees and power lines, increasing the risk of power outages during the weekend.
No matter what is falling from the sky, it will be a period of harsh and unpleasant weather. It is difficult to give advice on “safe” or “good” times to travel, as conditions can vary from city to city and even from minute to minute. Really, if you don’t need to be out and about, it’s a good day to stay home and keep warm, warm and dry.
Coastal wind and floods are no concerns this weekend, I’m happy to say.
5.) Advisory
A winter weather warning was issued for 17 NJ counties due to the threat of freezing rain and ice this weekend.
—8am Saturday to 7am Sunday … Cape May, Cumberland and Salem counties.
– 1pm Saturday to 10am Sunday … Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Somerset and Union counties.
6.) The next storm
The same storm system that is causing dangerous chills and up to a foot of snow in the Southern Plains will arrive at our meeting early next week. It looks like we could face a small piece of precursor energy on Monday, before the main event between Monday night and the first half of Tuesday.
Now, here’s the interesting thing. The models traced the storm track further west (inland) and north. This not only limits the coastal influence of the storm, but also puts New Jersey on the hot side of the storm. This means that the predominant type of precipitation now appears just pure rain.
I wouldn’t hang my hat on that prediction, as things may well go back to the cold side again. (Previous races have suggested double-digit and a half-inch snow accumulation of ice in New Jersey.)
In fact, it is a sign that this forecast is still of low confidence and quite complicated. Keep in mind that chaos theory dictates that the weather forecast game works best when facing one storm at a time. We’ll have better control next time, as soon as the weekend’s ice storm passes.
7.) The next storm
The grand finale of this hyperactive period of time is still scheduled for the end of next week, from Thursday to Friday.
And guess what. Like Tuesday’s storm, it is trending northwest and therefore rainier. Even so, the current model consensus describes some snow accumulation at the beginning. And with 5 days for the first flakes / drops, you can definitely come back again.
I remain very hopeful that we will get a break from the constant onslaught of significant storm systems starting next weekend. We may even see a brief (big) warming up at the end of next week. However, if you are looking for long term sustained heating, unfortunately you will have to wait until March.
Stay warm, be smart and stay safe this weekend. Unless “things” really hit the fan when the ice storm arrives, my next blog update on the weather will come on Sunday morning.
Dan Zarrow is the chief meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecasts and real-time weather updates.