The seven-day average of new COVID-17 cases in Michigan is skyrocketing. The same is true with the positivity rate.
Coronavirus hospitalizations are also starting to rise.
In fact, coronavirus transmission in Michigan is growing faster than anywhere else in the country.
The pandemic is not over yet, Michigan officials warn, as COVID-19 numbers increase
What is up with that?
Here is a look at the factor cited by experts.
1. Disclosure of COVID-19 variants.
Perhaps the biggest driver of the increases is the emergence of new variants of COVID-19, which are more contagious than the dominant coronavirus strain.
Along with Florida, Michigan has one of the highest numbers of identified cases of strain B.1.1.7 that first appeared in the United Kingdom. This variant has been identified in 725 cases in 31 Michigan counties.
“Just to remind you, this variant is more transmissible, so someone who is infected with COVID-19 will transmit the virus more easily to others,” said Dr. Sarah Lyon-Callo, director of the MDHHS Bureau of Epidemiology and Population Health. at a press conference on March 17.
2. Relaxation of restrictions on restaurants, gyms and cinemas in recent weeks.
Among the 50 states, Michigan had one of the lowest transmission rates in January and almost the entire month of February, and experts say a major reason for this was more restrictions.
Whitmer eased restrictions on gyms and cinemas in January and allowed restaurants to eat in person again on February 1. The number of coronavirus cases and the rate of positivity began to increase in the third week of February.
The lifting of restaurant restrictions typically results in an increase in case rates, a recent one concluded by the federal Centers for Disease Control. That’s because the coronavirus spreads more easily indoors, where people don’t wear masks.
3. Resumption of high school sports and other extracurricular activities.
Lyon-Callo said the number of school-related outbreaks – especially high schools – has increased, but most of them involve extracurricular activities versus classroom exposure.
“The classroom environment itself has not been a strong signal for outbreaks,” she said. “There tends to be more activities associated with schools, including sports, but not just sports.”
The latest state report on school-related outbreaks listed 53 new clusters in K-12 schools, infecting 253 students and staff. This compares to 17 new clusters infecting 68 people listed in the February 15 report.
4. People are leaving their homes more.
The Michigan Department of Transportation and companies that analyze cell phone data are seeing increases in mobility, said Lyon-Callo.
The data suggest that the percentage of time people spend at home has decreased, and mobility is now close to pre-pandemic levels, she said.
. “This is showing a return to basic mobility patterns, especially for non-essential visits,” said Lyon-Callo.
5. Lack of testing.
Lyon-Callo and another public health official continue to express concern that more people are not being tested for coronavirus.
“We have reached a plateau in terms of the number of diagnostic tests carried out in the state each day,” said Lyon-Callo. “It is important that we increase our testing rate, especially as the cases increase. This is important for the public health response, in terms of ensuring that we identify cases so that we can conduct contact tracking and understand where outbreaks are occurring. ”
6. COVID fatigue.
Another important factor is “COVID fatigue,” said Dr. Liam Sullivan, an infectious disease specialist at Spectrum Health in Grand Rapids.
“I think people are very, very tired of COVID-19 right now,” and are especially tired of the COVID-related guidelines and restrictions, said Sullivan. “There is a segment of the population that is saying, ‘I don’t care anymore’ and others that are simply not paying much attention to what they are doing, whether intentional or not.
“If you have this combination of people who stop taking the appropriate precautions and these circulating variants that are clearly more contagious, this is a recipe for another outbreak of infections,” added Sullivan.
The good news, say Lyon-Callo and others, is that the increase in cases is concentrated, for now, among those aged 50 and under.
“Those between 10 and 19 years old have the highest case rate, and their case rate is increasing faster than in other age groups,” she said.
This is significant because younger people are much, much more likely to have mild cases of coronavirus, she said. It is also significant that cases are not increasing among people aged 70 and over, a group with a much higher risk of hospitalization or death if they contract the virus.
“We are delighted to see that (case rates among the elderly) are not increasing and this shows a positive impact from vaccination efforts,” said Lyon-Callo.
More than 60% of Michigan residents age 65 and older received at least one dose of the COVID vaccine.
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