CONNECTICUT – A fourth wave of coronavirus developed in Connecticut and the country at large is unlikely, according to former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb.
“I don’t think we are going to have a fourth wave of infection that will sweep across the national level,” Gottlieb said during Governor Ned Lamont’s press conference on Monday. “I think we are at risk for some regionalized epidemic or outbreak problem like you saw in Michigan.”
Some states like Michigan and Massachusetts are seeing increasing cases among 10 to 19 year olds, said Gottlieb. This is probably due to the reopening of schools and children meeting with their friends for the first time in a long time.
Gottlieb predicted that cases and hospitalizations across the country are likely to decline significantly after a few weeks due to increased vaccination rates and more outdoor activities thanks to the warmer climate, he said.
The only potential factor that can hinder progress are new variants that infect people who already had COVID-19 or are more resistant to vaccine-induced immunity, he said.
Current data seems to suggest that this is unlikely to happen, but more information needs to be collected at the national level.
Infections have probably increased due to people leaving and socializing more than recently, said Gottlieb. The country and Connecticut could have benefited from a few more weeks of reduced social activity, he said.
“We engaged in the activity a little too soon,” he said. “March was a month when we needed to continue doing what we were doing in February, and we started to go out more and socialize more.”
Gottlieb did not disagree with Lamont’s decision to widely reopen companies to full capacity.
“Policymakers end up approving policies that must be in line with the aspirations of the people and the aspirations of the governed,” he said. “You can’t be so out of step with what people want, you have to try to create a policy that is in line with the public’s willingness.”
It is better if people hear some guidance, such as the continued wearing of masks, than no guidance, according to Gottlieb.
“I think if we just tell the American people that you know it’s not time to do anything yet, you have to continue to stay home and do all the things that you were doing in January now, it will not work,” he said.