Getty Images
In any commercial negotiation, the best lever comes from a firm and reliable insistence that the team does not really want to change the player. The 49ers, after moving up to third place in the 2021 draft with the clear objective of acquiring a new defender, must now firmly and credibly insist that they do not want to change defender Jimmy Garoppolo.
The stratagem has begun, with 49ers spreading the word to several reporters that “Jimmy is our guy”, although he clearly is not.
Really, why would the 49ers trade three choices from the first round and one choice from the third for the chance to prepare their quarterback of the future if Garoppolo remains the quarterback of the present? If Garoppolo is the man now, he is the man afterwards. If he isn’t the guy later, then he shouldn’t be the guy now.
But to get the most out of Garoppolo in trade, the 49ers need to convince everyone (or at least one other team) that they will keep him. Just like the Vikings when they had no “intention” to trade Percy Harvin or the Cardinals when Josh Rosen was “our guy” or when the giants didn’t pay Odell Beckham Jr. to trade him.
There is nothing to stop the 49ers from staying with Garoppolo and paying him the $ 25 million he is expected to earn this year. However, it would be stupid to do that. Nothing prevents another team from negotiating Garoppolo’s contract and paying him $ 25 million this year. However, it would be stupid to do that.
The 49ers could keep Garoppolo on a dramatically reduced salary. They could also trade it, at a reduced wage.
With no guaranteed money on April 1st and no escalation bonus due in the off-season and no other factor that forces 49ers to move quickly, time is on the side of 49ers. Like the Raiders with Trent Brown, the 49ers can tell Garoppolo and any interested team that they will just stay with Garoppolo and kill him later. If another team wants it now, a deal could be made that would include compensation for the 49ers, a reduced salary for Garoppolo and (quite possibly) an agreement to discard the last season of his 2022 deal and make Garoppolo a free agent after the season.
Regardless, several previous examples show us that messages sent by 49ers about their alleged desire to keep Garoppolo should not be believed. Each team wants to get value for each asset it owns. A negotiation is always preferable to a total release Anything you can get for Garoppolo is better than nothing you could get by cutting him off.
Result? No one is paying Garoppolo $ 25 million this year. The only question is whether it takes less to stay in San Francisco, whether it takes less to facilitate a trade, or whether it ends up being cut.