Hailed as “Governor of America” just a year ago, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is now fighting for his political life. In late January, the state attorney general reported that Cuomo’s administration purposely failed to disclose thousands of nursing home residents who died of complications related to COVID-19, allegedly in an effort to protect Cuomo from possible political retaliation. The FBI and the United States attorney’s office are now investigating how the Cuomo government handled COVID-19 in nursing homes.
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Separately, between February 24 and March 8, five women, including four former aides, accused Cuomo of sexual harassment or uncomfortable romantic openings, such as unwanted kisses or questions about their sex lives. Although his office denied some of the accusations, Cuomo apologized last week for making women feel uncomfortable and said it was unintentional. He also agreed to let the attorney general lead an independent investigation into the claims.
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The two scandals affected Cuomo’s once-high approval ratings and led to an increasing number of resignations. But so far, Cuomo insists he will stay put and, in many ways, he is still a formidable candidate for re-election in 2022, which leaves a variety of different results open for Cuomo. Here are the four main ways in which Cuomo’s political future could unfold.
1. Cuomo resigns
Although Cuomo insisted on Sunday that he would not resign, politicians tend to deny that they are resigning until the moment they do. If any of these scandals gets worse for Cuomo – say, more women come forward or the FBI announces criminal charges – the pressure to resign may become too great to bear. The last two allegations of sexual harassment have already inspired state Senate and Assembly leaders to ask for his resignation; if other important New York politicians, like Sens. Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, follow suit, he may not have much of a choice.
It is possible, however, that Cuomo could overcome these accusations. In recent years, many politicians have successfully resisted resignations: By my count, since 2017, 57 federal or state politicians (not including Cuomo) have faced scandals during their tenure, and only 12 have resigned. A troubled leader need not go beyond Virginia governor Ralph Northam, whose popularity has recovered after a 2019 blackface scandal, as proof that it is possible to wait for resignations and emerge with a career intact.
That said, I found that officials accused of unwanted sexual advances resigned at a higher rate: seven out of 14. However, “unwanted sexual advances” is a broad category, covering everything from inappropriate Facebook messages to allegations of rape, and there is no perfect comparison with Cuomo’s sex scandal – although the accusations so far are not as serious or explicit as many of the other scandals I have followed in this category.
And as loud as the calls for Cuomo’s resignation in the media have been, they represent only a minority of New Yorkers. According to a Quinnipiac University poll from March 2-3, although 40% of registered voters in New York think Cuomo should resign, 55% of registered voters do not. And while registered voters told Emerson College / WPIX-TV / NewsNation (in a March 3-4 poll), 43 percent to 34 percent, that Cuomo he must resigning over sexual harassment charges (the numbers in the nursing home scandal were similar), 23 percent were unsure – so public pressure on him to resign is hardly overwhelming.
Right now, Cuomo’s resignation seems unlikely – but that could change quickly with another bombastic report or more high-level resignation requests. In addition, there are already at least 10 lawmakers who want to challenge him, according to Fox News. Although Cuomo’s dismissal is theoretically a fifth scenario, so far there seems to be less appetite for it among lawmakers than resignation (10 vs. 37), and he may prefer to resign than become the first governor of New York to be removed. since 1913.
2. Cuomo retires
A more likely outcome may be that Cuomo fulfills the rest of his term, but does not run for re-election in 2022. This would allow him to leave on his own terms (avoiding the embarrassment of potentially losing re-election), while preserving his legacy by don’t resign. Elected for the first time in 2010, Cuomo has served longer than any other incumbent governor, and while New York has no term limits for governor, only two New York governors have served for more than 12 years in office – so , it would hardly be an unusual moment for him to get away. Retirement is also the public’s preferred course of action: in that Quinnipiac poll, registered voters in New York said from 59% to 36% that Cuomo should not run for re-election.
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On the other hand, politicians – even those under pressure – do not voluntarily relinquish power very often. Of the 57 office holders affected by scandals since 2017, 34 sought re-election or higher positions (and a further four can still do so in 2022). Cuomo has not commented on his plans since these scandals broke out, but in 2019 he said he planned to run for re-election. He has also amassed a $ 16.8 million campaign war chest that clearly signals his intention to run – and that might lead him to think he can come to brute force for a fourth term.
3. Cuomo runs for re-election and loses
If Cuomo decides to seek re-election, he is likely to face stronger opposition in the primary and general elections. He would probably face a primary challenge even before these scandals; in 2014 and 2018, he faced a serious major challenge from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Although he still won over 60 percent of the vote in both contests, largely thanks to his strength among non-white voters, that still leaves about a third of New York’s Democrats who are solidly anti-Cuomo.
And Cuomo’s recent scandals may finally make this bloc big enough to defeat him, especially if a strong opponent like Attorney General Letitia James emerges. In Emerson’s poll, only 44% of Democratic voters said they would re-elect Cuomo if the election were held today, while 56% said it was time for someone new. And Quinnipiac found that James is the most popular politician in the state, with a whopping 82% to 3% pass / disapprove rate among Democrats. A black opponent like James or New York’s public attorney, Jumaane Williams, may be particularly well placed to eat Cuomo’s base as well; in the Quinnipiac poll, James was the only tested state politician who had a higher approval rating than Cuomo among non-white respondents.
Cuomo’s main vulnerability is likely to be in the Democratic primaries, although even if he survives, the general election may also not be a piece of cake. According to Emerson, Cuomo became totally unpopular in the Empire State, with an approval rating of 38% and a disapproval rate of 49%. (His situation is not as dire in the Quinnipiac poll: 45% approval, 46% disapproval.) And while New York’s strong Democratic bias helped Cuomo, partisanship is not as strong in state disputes as it is in federal ones, and sometimes the dominant state party nominates a candidate so controversial that the other side marks a defeat. (Ask Democratic Governor Laura Kelly of Kansas or Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards of Louisiana.) If the usual pattern of party strength in midterm elections is true, 2022 will also be a Republican-biased election year across the country.
4. Cuomo runs for re-election and wins
Of course, it is also possible that these scandals are just a bump and Cuomo will win re-election in 2022 – as he was very likely to have done before all this. He still has all the advantages of the job, plus that $ 16.7 million war chest. And voters will not make their decisions based solely on the Cuomo scandals. By Emerson, 62 percent of New York voters say a COVID-19 vaccination plan is more important than an investigation into any of the scandals, and by Quinnipiac, they still approve Cuomo’s treatment of the 56-41 pandemic. Percent. And in 2022, it is very possible that other issues overshadowed these scandals in the news cycle, such as the measures by which Cuomo is judged.
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Even today, Cuomo probably starts with an advantage in both the primary and the general. Both Emerson (53% to 34%) and Quinnipiac (65% to 27%) found that he still has a positive approval rating among Democratic voters, and Quinnipiac found that Democrats still want him to run for reelection, 50% to 44%. This is largely due to his enduring strength with colored voters, who are often overlooked in conversations about Cuomo’s intra-party popularity, but make up about 40% of New York’s Democratic electorate. It will be difficult for any Democrat to beat him without breaking his grip on those voters – and while that certainly can happen, there is another complication. Multiple opponents in the primaries can split the anti-Cuomo vote and make it easier for him to win with just a plurality of loyal supporters. Cuomo would have the best chance of losing if he faced a single, strong challenger in the primaries – but considering how vulnerable Cuomo looks (and how many ambitious Democrats there are in New York), this can be difficult for his opponents to coordinate.
As for the general election, while everything in the previous section is still standing, the cold and hard truth is that New York is a much blue state: President Biden won by 23 percentage points, and no Republican won a state election there, in none level, since 2002. Although Cuomo is not guaranteed victory if he reaches November 2022, he would certainly be the favorite – with scandals and all.