The Portland Trail Blazers were attacked in their season opener against Utah Jazz last night, a 120-100 disaster for which they were never really in contention. In the wake of two deep defeats to the Denver Nuggets at the end of the preseason, the weak game worried Blazers fans.
Portland’s performance against Utah was not the stuff of NBA champions, or even a true contender, but hitting the panic button may be premature. We don’t even have to say “It was a game!” banality. The reasons Portland lost are significant, but they are also largely corrected … as long as the team is good.
The jury has not yet decided on this issue. We won’t have a verdict until we prove it in court. But assuming the Blazers have a spark of life, here are three reasons why you can expect them to play better soon, without having to change the team or approach much.
They are out of shape
NBA players are used to playing and practicing at a professional level for at least seven months a year, eight if they dig deeper into the playoffs. This is somewhere between 60-66% of your time spent in competition or formally preparing your team for it.
Even with the Orlando Bubble punctuating the COVID-19 gap, most teams have spent between 10-15% of their time in training or organized games since March. At best, it’s about a quarter of normal.
The usual 5-on-5 friendly games against talented players were also taboo in an offseason protected by COVID. They didn’t even have informal exercises to help them.
All teams outside the Lakers and Heat faced this reality. Some handled it better than others. I think it’s safe to say that Portland has fallen to the bottom end of the scale. Instead of spinning around like crunchy peppermint candies, they now look like big mountains of chocolate syrup.
I will not call people here for a few reasons. It is quite obvious when you see it. Besides, we don’t know what’s going on with these guys. A hundred things may be contributing outside the courtroom. It is not automatically a case of negligence or lack of commitment. It is a strange and terrible year. They deserve a break and some space.
Instead, let’s focus on the positive. The quick restart seems to have caught the Blazers unprepared, but you can’t play NBA basketball for long without getting back into shape. Insofar as this is a problem, it should be removed in a few weeks.
They are not familiar
We are used to seeing Blazers present the same basic team each year. Familiarity is part of the secret sauce of success. When the limits of that success became clear, the list change was inevitable. That means relearning how to play together effectively, something that Blazers haven’t had to do seriously since 2015.
More specifically, they are trying to implement several new emphases on defense. I’m not even sure they they know exactly what they want to do, ideally. It is a work in progress.
This is the mental / schematic version of fitness. It may take longer to find out, especially against teams of the caliber of the playoffs. The way the Blazers will play at the beginning of February will be more indicative of who they are than how they looked at the opening of the season.
Damian Lillard will return
One of the most interesting aspects of last night’s game was Damian Lillard’s lack of marked aggression. The Portland all-rounder tried only 5 shots in the first half, only 12 for the game. CJ McCollum doubled Lillard’s shooting attempts before the break and ended up seven ahead of him at the end of the game, despite kicking only a slightly higher percentage (36% to 33%).
Defense may have been part of the story. It is also possible that Lillard has made a statement that he is willing to share the scoring responsibilities in this new, more talented team. In that case, this should last at most one more loss.
Blazers need to get along. Multiple players need to be happy in attack to do their best in defense. This only goes so far, however. Nobody is happy if the team doesn’t stand out.
Sometimes leading from the front is the right answer, but sometimes leading from the front is also the right answer. Lillard’s teammates will be better off – emotionally or otherwise – if he scores 40 a night and they win than if he tries a dozen shots a night and they lose.
Lillard has never had a problem with performing like that before. If he needs it, he will do it again. The sooner Blazers realize, the better they will be.
Bonus: Slow Starts
Here’s a fourth bonus reason, because it’s Christmas!
Traditionally, Blazers are a slow start team. They break the habit occasionally, but they always slip back. Dragging yourself into the season at a snail pace won’t do much for your playoffs to spread, but it doesn’t stop your standard rally from giving itself a chance. We still don’t know if this was a game or a trend, but either way, that doesn’t stop them from fighting to move forward in April.
Are you pressing the panic button or are you fairly balanced over the past few games? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.