With the Golden Globes weighing in today on their choices (and believe me, there were some “choices”), the Screen Actors Guild awards are next on the list and have a stronger correlation with the Oscars.
A group of 2,500 randomly selected SAG-AFTRA members vote for the coveted awards, usually resulting in an eclectic group of nominees. In recent years, shocking inclusions like Sarah Silverman (“I smile back”), Emily Blunt (“The girl on the train”) and Peter Dinklage (“The station agent”) have shaken things up. They are also known for their great omissions, like Clive Owen and Natalie Portman in “Closer”, who won the Golden Globe for their performances in 2005.
Could “Mank” lead the way as he did with the Golden Globe? Will “The Trial of the Chicago 7” assert itself as the most likely Oscar candidate for Netflix? Did “Da 5 Bloods” and “One Night in Miami” recover after the HFPA got the hang of it? Can “Nomadland” put Oscar to sleep with an impressive display, including the joint SAG category? All of these questions could go unanswered, as the Oscar vote is not yet open until March 5.
Below are the final predictions for the SAG Awards.
BEST PERFORMANCE FOR A CAST SET
- “Minari”(A24)
CASE: Steven Yeun, Yeri Han, Yuh-Jung Youn, Alan S. Kim, Will Patton - “Nomadland”(Searchlight images)
CAST: Frances McDormand, David Strathairn, Swankie, Linda May, Bob Wells - “One night in miami‘(Amazon Studios)
CASE: Kingsley Ben-Adir, Eli Goree, Aldis Hodge, Leslie Odom Jr - “Metal sound”(Amazon Studios)
CAST: Riz Ahmed, Olivia Cooke, Paul Raci, Mathieu Amalric, Lauren Ridloff - “The Chicago Trial 7“(Netflix)
CASE: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Sacha Baron Cohen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Michael Keaton, Frank Langella, John Carroll Lynch, Eddie Redmayne, Mark Rylance, Alex Sharp, Jeremy Strong
ALTERNATES: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
Equivalent to the Oscar for best film category, this category is one of the key items needed on the way to the Oscar. Obviously, there are some exceptions like “Braveheart”, “The Shape of Water” and “Green Book” without it. This is also a great way for films like “Da 5 Bloods”, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and “One Night in Miami” to recover. The inclusion of “Nomadland” would solidify his strength and position as the leader in the race, as previous films like “Slumdog Millionaire”, another film that had a “less famous” cast, did in the previous years. Amazon’s “Sound of Metal” can also be a symbol of strength, like other surprise entries from the past “Dallas Buyers Club” and “Bohemian Rhapsody”, but it is always difficult to choose “that” contender so early in the game.
There are also some films with great casts that can enter the programming, such as previous entries like “Bobby” and “August: Osage County”. Can “The Prom” show your musical taste with an unexpected admission? “Promising young woman” has many film / TV actors who could please your imagination, further accelerating your status as best film / director. I also wonder if the voting committee has the capacity to vote for Kelly Reichardt’s “First Cow”, emulating unexpected entries like “Beasts of No Nation?” Fortunately, they are skilled at “Minari”, because HFPA certainly did not have it today.
Image Courtesy of SONY PICTURES CLASSICS / AMAZON STUDIOS / NETFLIX / A24
BEST PERFORMANCE OF A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
- Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
PAPER: Ruben - Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
PAPER: Dike - Anthony Hopkins, “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
ROLE: Anthony - Delroy Lindo, “Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix)
PAPER: Paul - Steven Yeun, “Minari” (A24)
PAPER: Jacob
SWITCH: Tahar Rahim, “The Mauritanian” (STXfilms)
After major absences in the Globe, this is the place for Delroy Lindo (“Da 5 Bloods”) and Steven Yeun (“Minari”) to reaffirm themselves in the category of best actor. Gary Oldman (“Mank”) is someone that the actors respect a lot and could appear in the style of Christian Bale (“Ford vs. Ferrari”). Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”), Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) and Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”) feel safe for the nominees. Still, with Jodie Foster being chosen as the best supporting actress, it could be a closed package alongside Tahar Rahim (“The Mauritanian”). If you appear in this space, stay tuned because BAFTA is a group that favors him incredibly, and he can lock things up on his own.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADER PAPER
- Andra’s Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday ”(Hulu)
PAPER: Billie Holiday - Nicole Beharie, “Miss Juneteenth” (vertical entertainment)
PAPER: Turquoise Jones - Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
PAPER: Ma Rainey - Frances McDormand, “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
PAPER: Fern - Carey Mulligan, “Promising young woman” (resources in focus)
PAPER: Cassandra “Cassie” Thomas
SWITCH: Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman” (Netflix)
Interestingly, the category of best actress in the SAG award has not been a perfect match for the Oscars since 2009, when Sandra Bullock emerged victorious for “The Blind Side”. Since then, there have been many “isolated cases” and shocking contempt. Look at Hilary Swank (“Conviction”), Helen Mirren (“Hitchcock” and “Woman in Gold”) and Sarah Silverman (“I Smile Back”) for those inclusions that made many scholars scratch their heads. With the competitive nature of best actress, we should expect a surprise loss or two, and Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”) may be one of those who sits outside the SAG and emerges back to the Oscars. Nicole Beharie (“Miss Juneteenth”) won the Gotham Award for best actress on the first day of voting at SAG and can find space between them. Andra Day’s performance impressed enough that he was in the bubble for an entry. This could cement your escalation status. Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”) and Carey Mulligan (“Promising young woman”) feel safe with Viola Davis feeling semi-safe for blemishes, but honestly, who knows?
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
- Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
PAPER: Abbie Hoffman - Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros.)
PAPER: Fred Hampton - Leslie Odom Jr, “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
PAPER: Sam Cooke - Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
PAPER: Joe - Mark Rylance, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
PAPER: William Kunstler
SWITCH: Brian Dennehy, “Driveways” (FilmRise)
The SAG awards have not corresponded 100% to the Oscar since 2014, when JK Simmons ran away with the “Whiplash” season. This year, I do not expect it to correspond completely again, which is why we should expect some variation. Mirroring a bit of the 2007 award season, where Tommy Lee Jones appeared alongside his castmate Javier Bardem for “No Country for Old Men”, I think Mark Rylance may appear alongside Sacha Baron Cohen in “The Trial of the Chicago 7. ”In other SAG behaviors, the grand guild can recognize those who left us last year (ie James Garner for” The Notebook “and James Gandolfini for” Enough Said “), which is why, as a alternative choice, the late Brian Dennehy can find the way to escalate his performance on “Driveways”.
There are also previous nominees like Steve Carell for “Battle of the Sexes” that shook things up for the contestants, and I wouldn’t count Colman Domingo’s work on “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” to make a move on his co-star Glynn Turman, but at this point, they may be sharing the votes with each other.
BEST PERFORMANCE OF A WOMAN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
- Maria bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (Amazon Studios)
PAPER: Tutar Sagdiyev - Jodie Foster, “The Mauritanian” (STXfilms)
ROLE: Nancy Hollander - Amanda Seyfried, “Mank” (Netflix)
PAPER: Marion Davies - Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari” (A24)
PAPER: Soonja - Helena Zengel, “News of the World” (Universal Pictures)
PAPER: Johanna Leonberger
SWITCH: Olivia Colman, “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
The guild agreed with the Academy in 2016, when Viola Davis won for her work on “Fences”, but they’ve shown some wildcard selections since when they didn’t – like Emily Blunt in “A Quiet Place”, Margot Robbie in “Mary Queen of Scots ”and Nicole Kidman in“ Bombshell ”. Despite the quality of their work, they fall into a period of consideration that does not work. Who fits this account this year?
Olivia Cooke’s work on “Sound of Metal” is very dear, and if you are anticipating a great day, she will follow you easily. Valerie Mahaffey, nominated by the Independent Spirit, in “French Exit” would certainly turn a few heads. Still, I wouldn’t count on her unless you also anticipate Michelle Pfeiffer coming, and the road seems to be congested at the moment for her. Candice Bergen is a legend in the world of television and cinema, so “Let Them All Talk” could be in the conversation. With her affinity for young actors, Helena Zengel could continue her resurgence for “News of the World,” and Jodie Foster is a previous winner in this category for “Nell”, so she may be able to gain some strength.
Olivia Colman’s prediction missed by “The Father” is one that would fit in the award season narrative; however, they also didn’t reward her in the year she won an Oscar for “The Favorite,” and the group loves to correct the cross (ie Judi Dench for “Chocolat” after “Shakespeare in Love”). If Ellen Burstyn loses here, soon after losing the Globes, her path really narrows, and she would need the Critics’ Choice and BAFTA to keep her alive. The “WTF nominations”, which I call the performances that reach the Oscar without the help of any precursor, such as Marina de Tavira (“Roma”) and Marcia Gay Harden (“Pollock”), are rare.
BEST PERFORMANCE FOR A CONSTRUCTION SET
- “The Midnight Sky” (Netflix)
- “Mulan” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “News of the World” (Universal Pictures)
- “Principle” (Warner Bros.)
- “Wonder Woman 1984” (Warner Bros.)
SWITCH: “The Old Guard” (Netflix)
The selections for acrobatics are always unpredictable, as they can include unexpected films, like “The Ballad of the Buster Scruggs” and “Animals of the Night”. The horses look like something that can attract voters, which explains the inclusion of “Mulan” and “News of the World”, and we have to assume that the enlargement and passage of the buildings are impressive enough to keep “Tenet” in the mix . The previous “Wonder Woman” won this category, and the “WW84” sequence should be attractive. Throwing a coin for “The Midnight Sky” and “The Old Guard”, but what I know is probably “Hillbilly Elegy”, and up is the new down.