It may take a few years to figure it out, but at the start of the NFL’s 2021 draft, a small collection of options will be selected very early. It happens in all draft classes.
Although I am not implying that these potential customers are going to burst, they are just the riskiest proposals that can still land somewhere in the first round or at the very beginning of day 2. In my opinion, they will have a hard time living their position of project. These are my potential customers for “beware of the buyer” in the 2021 class.
Gregory Rousseau, EDGE / DL, Miami
Why: Lack of fast-moving movements; minimum leverage / power
Rousseau’s production just made it impossible to miss on the recruitment radar – 15.5 bags in a season of red-shirted freshmen is tremendous. That, combined with the 1.8m height and 260 pound quote, the young Miami star seemed destined for the top 10, if not the top 5.
But, of course, draft assessments are not directly linked to statistics or height / weight measurements.
After further analysis, Rousseau’s production was not a by-product of super-polished manual labor that led to one-on-one victories against offensive tackles. He used to get to the defender right in the game thanks to the impeccable coverage of the Miami high school, or he was the target of initial pressure from a teammate.
In terms of features, Rousseau is undeniably long and decently explosive. Does he have pass-rush plans? Rarely, if ever. And because he is so high, his center of gravity is naturally very high, which means that it is difficult for him to win the battle for leverage and play with every ounce of his inherent strength.
As in college, Rousseau’s unique structure and first step can be difficult for guards to block occasionally. But many of these internal blockers are magnificently strong and built low. They will rise and stay under Rousseau and stop him before any disturbance is created. As an edge explorer, he doesn’t have the plunge, the curve, or the power to consistently win on the curve.
Rousseau will probably still land in the first round. And whichever team chooses him will likely be relying on his defensive line coach to teach him quick moves while he adds weight and strength as a professional. If I were a GM, I wouldn’t be able to select such a crude specimen in today’s NFL that moves quickly.
Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
Why: route execution inefficiencies; dance long after capture
Toney is a blast to watch – he’s elastic with the football in his hands and when he puts it all together, he’s a standout generator. And as much as the NFL has become a “space” league in attack, Toney does not offer refinement of caliber in the first round as a receiver now.
In Florida, it was used almost strictly as a gadget, and it is much faster than fast, which limits your potential as a professional. In addition, your creativity as a runner is both a blessing and a curse. For every juke and spin through a tackle, Toney will simply try to do a lot instead of making a cut and maximizing the yards in front of him. This dancing mentality creates negative pieces that had nothing to do with being negative pieces.
If a team chooses him in the first round, they will probably do so largely because of the insane and lively displays of YAC that he exhibited in Florida, especially in 2020. But as much as he appears to be on the surface with the ball in his hands, Toney is not as efficient as he should / could be in that department. And I don’t know if it can be fully trained out of it.
Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
Why: limited pass-rush movements; don’t play with your athletic gifts
Oweh improved every year at Penn State, and was second on Bruce Feldman’s “Freaks” list before the season opened eyes in the scouting community – no doubt about it, Oweh looks like he’s been in the NFL for a few years old. It is sculpted with a noticeable explosion of the snap. There are moments of incredible curve as well.
Is he a dynamic manual labor player, the final element needed to emerge like a star in his position? No. Outside of an elementary swipe move, Oweh is exclusively an advocate of sprinting now. And although he can do a high test on Penn State Pro Day, he doesn’t look like a talented athlete of a generation on the field. Would I consider you one of the best athletes at the top of this class? Absolutely. Does he look miles ahead of other top drivers? Do not.
Therefore, with Oweh, a team will choose an unpolished rusher who may not be as flexible and restless on the field as he is during training. And those are the two reasons why I wouldn’t choose you in the first round.
Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Why: Lack of speed in the short area; lacks outstanding ball skills
When it comes to checking traditional boxes, Surtain checks them all. He has NFL lineage. He played in Alabama and took the field in his freshman season. He is over 6-0 and 200 pounds with long arms. He is patient in the press coverage.
But the draft is all about characteristics, and Surtain is simply not a sudden, stretchy athlete. A decade ago, he would have had a much easier acclimatization process with the alloy because size and rebound skills were still clearly considered to be more important than the separation ability in the receiver position. This is no longer the case.
Surtain will have problems with seasoned veterans who can get a clean release of the line in a number of ways and change direction in the blink of an eye. And although Surtain made four choices and defended 24 passes in three seasons, there are many cases for my taste where he doesn’t find the football when it is coming, which leads to a submission that should have been eliminated.
I like Surtain – he is a first-round candidate on my board. But I wouldn’t feel comfortable choosing him in the top half of the first round, and the top 10 is too high for him.