The New York Knicks are in an interesting position before the 2021 negotiation deadline. They have more limit space ($ 15.7 million) than any other team, which gives them the ability to add a substantial salary to a trading without the need to send back in return. In addition to them, the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder are the two teams in a similar position thanks to their large commercial exceptions.
Going into the season, it looked like New York could use the maximum space to stock up on additional draft choices in exchange for bad contracts. But with Tom Thibodeau’s team currently in seventh place at the Eastern Conference, the Knicks are now a team that can take advantage of the deadline to increase their chances of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2013.
Should New York be approaching the deadline as an opportunity to update the list for the next two months? Or is it better for the Knicks to follow a long-term construction plan around All-Star Julius Randle, sophomore wing RJ Barrett, pivot Mitchell Robinson and promising newcomer Immanuel Quickley?
ESPN NBA analysts Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton debate how New York should approach the negotiation deadline.
What is the space value of the Knicks cover?
Bobby: The Knicks are sitting in pole position on time with their limit space. How they use that $ 15.7 million will depend on whether they want to acquire players, trade players or a combination of both.
New York can act as a third team in a negotiation to get back an unwanted salary, something that only teams with major commercial exceptions (Oklahoma City, for example) could do. For example, any team interested in the Cleveland Cavaliers center, Andre Drummond, and his $ 28.7 million salary, would probably have to send three to four players to make the money work. Because of lineup restrictions (maximum 15 players), Cleveland would recruit New York as a third team to resume one or two contracts, also launching draft choices or perhaps a player that fit the New York development schedule.
The Knicks can also resume a contract and a draft choice if a team is looking for a spot in the squad to hire a player who has been bought. A team like Philadelphia has 15 players under contract and can switch Terrance Ferguson along with a second round choice for New York to open a squad spot. The Knicks, however, also have 15 players hired and would need to eat the salary of a player like Austin Rivers to make this work.
Previous negotiation deadlines have seen luxury tax teams negotiate players with the primary goal of saving money. The Warriors could negotiate Kelly Oubre Jr.’s $ 14.37 million contract and save about $ 70 million in taxes – although that number is likely to be reduced after the league calculates the post-pandemic impact on Basketball-Related Income for this season.
One thing to keep in mind is that this is not a scenario to use or lose to New York. Although the ceiling is not valid for the 2021-22 season, the Knicks are allowed to use their room until the start of the new year of the 2021-2022 league, probably in early August.
Kevin, with New York currently in the top six, isn’t it important that this team remains in accumulation mode?
Designing the finish of the Knicks
Kevin: As well as the Knicks have played so far this season, the odds are still against a string of deep playoffs. In terms of points difference, New York occupies the fifth place of the eight teams separated by four games in the classification of the Eastern Conference, from the fourth to the 11th place. The Knicks also have the eighth most difficult schedule remaining in the NBA, according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI). As a result, BPI-based projections still give New York only a 17.4% chance of reaching the playoffs. (The FiveThirtyEight model is a little more optimistic, giving the Knicks a 30% chance.)
Since the Orient is so open and even a trip to the play-in tournament would be a high point for the franchise in the post-Carmelo Anthony era, I think it’s reasonable for New York to be in takeover mode. But with a bank that has already proven to be surprisingly deep, I prefer to use the cover space to take on a bad contract, rather than trying a short-term upgrade like New Orleans Pelicans guard JJ Redick.
Is there a way for the Knicks to achieve both goals, either by dividing their space on the edge or by taking out a long-term contract?
Knick options
Bobby: As I mentioned above, if Philadelphia is looking to open a squad spot, New York should be at the head of the line for a player like Terrance Ferguson or Vincent Poirier, both of whom will be restricted free agents this summer. The same applies if Dallas is looking to create additional cap flexibility in 2021-22, moving Dwight Powell, who owes $ 11.1 million in 2021-22 and $ 11.1 million in 2022-23. If the Knicks could acquire several second-round choices or even get the Mavericks to eliminate the protection against choices (top 10) for the first one they owe to New York in 2023, it would be worth the reduction in the space limit ($ 45 to $ 34 million in 2021-22). The 2021 free agent class is the best average and New York would be smart to follow the same plan as last November (one year free agent contracts) and bet on any long-term acquisitions.
The Knicks do not currently have a vacancy in the squad, but they could easily dismiss Ignas Brazdeikis (team option for 2021-22, played 7 minutes this season) or Austin Rivers (contract not guaranteed in 2021-22 and 2022-23, hasn’t has been playing since February 13) to create space if they want to resume a contract that a team is trying to get rid of.
Kevin, where would you draw a line when it comes to the availability of the Knicks’ five expired contracts (Derrick Rose, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock) and their two previous lottery options (Kevin Knox and Frank Ntilikina)? I know you would go in the direction of using the limit space to withdraw bad contracts, but how about collecting additional choices for your pending free agents?
Kevin: I think I am a little more willing than you are to encourage New York to try a place in the playoffs this year. In the long run, it would probably be wise to portray Rose for value and profit from her impending free agents. But this is the most exciting time to be a Knicks fan in years, so even if I want people to be realistic about the possibility of the team falling in the standings, it seems overkill.
Payton would be an exception to this rule. If New York can achieve anything for him, it would make sense to move on. The Knicks are 4-1 during the five games Payton lost recently, despite Rose being out of the lineup in the last two (including a 26 point loss in San Antonio).
I would also be ready to move Knox and Ntilikina if other teams value them more as their draft positions than their current positions outside of New York’s full force rotation. In her fourth season, Ntilikina has yet to show offensive skills to project as more than a fourth guard. And while Knox’s 40% 3-point shot in a limited sample (75 attempts) is encouraging, the rest of his game has stalled.
Let’s wrap up with a look this summer. Bobby, you mentioned that the Knicks plans to have $ 45 million in cap space in a weak market. How should they think about using this in addition to resuming long-term contracts ahead of schedule?
Knicks Summer 2021 and beyond
Bobby: The days of qualifying New York in the last four positions of future classifications of power seem to be over. The Knicks are well-stocked entering the off-season with a projected $ 45 million quarter, two choices in the first round (their own and the Mavericks’ choice) and a second from Detroit (which is the same as a first at the end) to add to his Barrett and Randle foundation.
Unfortunately, the best unrestricted free agents (LeBron James, Paul George, Rudy Gobert and Giannis Antetokounmpo) signed extensions before the start of the season. That leaves New York with a group of players ranging from Kyle Lowry, Dennis Schroder, Victor Oladipo, DeMar DeRozan, Evan Fournier and the restricted free agent Lonzo Ball.
The first thing to do is decide what to do with Mitchell Robinson’s $ 1.8 million team option. If they exercise the option, Robinson will become an unrestricted free agent in 2022, so to protect yourself in the long run, the smart thing is to refuse the option and give Robinson a qualified offer. This would make him a restricted free agent, and because of his $ 2.1 million minimum limit, New York can use the limit space first and then come back to hire him.
They also decided to offer Randle an extension of up to four years and $ 106 million. With Randle playing as an All-Star, I am inclined to believe that the attacker will pass that type of number and wait until he is a free agent in 2022 to make money.
I prefer to stick to the short-term plan: sign your own free agents (Burks, Noel and Bullock) for a two-year contract with a team option in year two, or see if a player like Lowry would bite a one-year contract , $ 25 million. Doug McDermott intrigues me with a high salary in the first year, but flexibility in the second year.
I know that the safe approach this offseason is not attractive, but if New York can play the waiting game, it will be in a position to land two free agents of the maximum type in 2022 or take advantage when the next disgruntled All-Star wants to leave. The free agent class of 2022 could consist of All-Stars Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal, Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Kevin Durant and Zach LaVine. Unlike the off-season of 2019, when they lost Durant and Irving, there is a strong base (similar to where Brooklyn was at that time) to attract players from the franchise.
Kevin, what do you think about the direction New York is going in this off-season?
Kevin: We are in tune with what the Knicks he must Does. Even if the 2022 free agent class runs out in the mold of what we saw with this year’s highly anticipated free agency, flexibility will be worth keeping, as long as New York has several young players on worthy newbie contracts. At the very least, short-term deals will be easier to include as an equivalent salary if a star is made available through negotiation.
Of course, Knicks’ story is replete with examples of a team overreacting to success and abandoning long-term plans. We will have a better idea until March 25th if the new president of the team, Leon Rose, will be able to keep the line and see through a plan that has been well executed so far.