You have no doubt heard of Murphy’s law. But what about Yhprum’s law? It is the exact opposite of Murphy’s law (the name is “Murphy” spelled backwards). According to Yhprum’s law, everything that can work will work. Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) appears to be experiencing the effects of the Yhprum law with the COVID-19 vaccine developed and marketed with BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX).
Pfizer and BioNTech have provided only good news for their vaccine COVID-19 Comirnaty (BNT162b2) so far. Now, there are two new positive developments that have made Pfizer’s prospects even better.
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More great news
Earlier this month, two different teams of Israeli researchers found that Comirnaty appears to reduce the spread of the coronavirus infection that causes COVID-19. Last week, Israeli researchers reported more excellent news for the vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech.
The new study found that individuals who received the first dose of Comirnaty had a 75% reduction in total infections. Likewise, Canadian researchers reported last week that their analysis of Pfizer data indicated 92.6% efficacy after the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. An earlier analysis determined a much lower efficacy of 52.4% after the first dose.
Pfizer and BioNTech announced their own positive development last week. The two companies sent new data to the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA), showing that Comirnaty can be stored for two weeks at temperatures between minus 13 degrees Fahrenheit and 5 degrees Fahrenheit. Previously, the vaccine required ultracold storage at temperatures between minus 112 degrees Fahrenheit and minus 76 degrees Fahrenheit.
Potential impact
What does all this mean for Pfizer? Let’s start with the less stringent storage requirement. Assuming the FDA changes the emergency use authorization (USA) label to Comirnaty, it should make it easier for facilities that do not have ultracold storage equipment to administer the COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech.
This is unlikely to have an immediate impact on Pfizer. However, anything the company can do to alleviate heavy storage requirements increases the chances that governments will order more doses of Comirnaty in the future. Pfizer hinted at the prospect of more good news in the future on this front. The company stated that it and BioNTech “anticipate that the useful life and / or expiration date may be extended” as more data becomes available.
The most effective reports after the first dose of Comirnaty have yet to be confirmed. However, this may also increase the likelihood that Pfizer will receive more orders for the vaccine going forward.
Why aren’t investors celebrating?
Despite the continuation of good news from Pfizer for its COVID vaccine, the stock of major pharmacies has fallen about 7% in the year to date. Why aren’t investors celebrating?
One possible reason is that it is still early. More data on the effectiveness of Comirnaty after a dose is needed. The FDA has not yet agreed to change the vaccine’s label to reflect updated storage requirements.
Probably the biggest factor, however, is that investors are not convinced that any of these developments will move the needle so much for Pfizer. This is undoubtedly a fair assessment at the moment, although recent announcements are nevertheless expected to increase Pfizer’s prospects for its vaccine.
However, there is a good case to be made, that investors should celebrate the overall successes of the Pfizer vaccine more than before. The company is expected to raise well over $ 15 billion this year with Comirnaty and will split the profits by 50-50 with BioNTech. Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine will be a major driver of the company’s growth in 2021 – and probably in the years to come.