Turnover is a fact of life in the NFL. Even though the league added two playoff teams to form a 14-team bracket in 2020, five of the 12 teams that made it to the postseason in 2019 did not return this season. This is a group that includes the 49ers, who were the top seed in the NFC and their representatives in the Super Bowl LIV, and the Patriots, who made it to the playoffs in 17 of the previous 19 seasons. The Texans, Vikings and Eagles were also unable to return in January, with two of those three not even close to that.
We will try to project what the 2021 playoff image will look like when we reach the end of next season. Let me start with the obvious: it will go wrong. We don’t even know who will coach the Eagles or Texans or whether their full-backs will remain for another season. In doing so, I am predicting that there is a small chance that Deshaun Watson or Carson Wentz will be dealt with one of their most obvious suitors, such as the Dolphins or Jets.
We know that the Colts will have a new starting quarterback, as Philip Rivers announced his retirement on Wednesday, but Drew Brees’ future with Saints is still in the air. We don’t even know if fans will be able to cheer on stadiums in September.
I will be drawing on the facts we know – namely, how each team fared in 2020 and what the at least 16 games will look like in 2021 – will help to make informed assumptions about next season’s playoff pitch. Where I made particularly surprising choices, I tried to give some historical context to teams that made comparable leaps or similar declines.
Let’s start with the team that is probably the least surprising choice of all, defending champions:
Jump to a team:
ATL | BAL | BUF | CHI | CLE
DAL | GB | IND | JAX | KC
HOME | MIA | NE | NO | COVA
SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH