A year after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Michigan residents are starting to return to a more normal life – but recent increases in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations show that the pandemic is not over, Michigan health officials say.
“So, we are in a different place (than 2020), but we are not quite there yet, frankly,” said Dr. Joneigh Khaldun, deputy chief director of the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, during a news conference MDHHS on Wednesday, March 17.
Dr. Sarah Lyon-Callo, director of the MDHHS Bureau of Epidemiology and Population Health, presented the worrying trend lines:
- The daily average of new cases of COVID-19 has doubled in the past three weeks, and the seven-day average is now almost 2,000 new cases per day.
- The seven-day mean rate of positivity in coronavirus diagnostic tests now exceeds 5% and is greater than 7% in the Kalamazoo region.
- Nearly 1,000 people are currently hospitalized for coronavirus, an increase of 14% last week. It is the third consecutive week of increases and, at the current rate, the state could reach 2,000 hospitalizations in five weeks.
- The death toll continues to fall, but Lyon-Callo and others have repeatedly warned that deaths are a delayed indicator and are expected to increase in the coming weeks.
Michigan’s positive test rate and daily coronavirus cases continue to rise
Michigan is among the 11 states with an increase in COVID-19 transmission and the only state outside Minnesota, in the Upper Midwest, with an increase, said Lyon-Callo.
Perhaps the biggest driver of the increases is the emergence of new variants of COVID-19, which are more contagious than the dominant coronavirus strain, Callo-Lyon said. Michigan is one of the states with the highest number of identified cases of the B.1.1.7 strain that first appeared in the United Kingdom. This variant has been identified in 31 Michigan counties.
“One of the reasons we are concerned about the increase in cases is that we are seeing an increasing spread of worrying variants in the United States, and we are experiencing this in Michigan,” said Lyon-Callo.
“Just to remind you, this variant is more transmissible, so someone who is infected with COVID-19 is going to transmit this virus more easily to other people,” she added.
Other factors driving the increases: The reopening of schools and the resumption of school sports and meals in indoor restaurants; increased travel and non-essential travel away from home and “COVID fatigue,” in which people are becoming less likely to adhere to the guidelines on masks and social detachment, she said.
Investigations of COVID cases are showing an increase in the number of close contacts that patients with coronavirus may have infected, as well as fewer people who were quarantined at the time they were diagnosed with COVID. The latter indicates more dissemination in the community – people are catching the virus without knowing how they were exposed.
“This is expected as we increase mobility,” said Lyon-Callo. “However, this will also increase the spread of disease, so less quarantine is taken very seriously.”
The importance of quarantine is especially important because of the more contagious variants, she said. “So one of the reasons why we are highlighting this, particularly today, is because with a variant B.1.1.7 becoming more prevalent in the state, it is even more important that people are quarantined (after possible exposure) so that no longer transmit a transmissible virus to others around you. “
With regard to schools, Lyon-Callo said that the number of school-related outbreaks – particularly secondary schools – has increased, but most involve extracurricular activities vs. classroom exposure.
“The classroom environment itself has not been a strong signal for outbreaks,” she said. “There tends to be more activities associated with schools, including sports, but not just sports.”
There was some positive news at Tuesday’s briefing: COVID case and death rates are decreasing among those aged 70 and over, a likely reflection of the high vaccination rates for the elderly. And since this age group has been a major driver of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID in previous outbreaks, the current increase in the number of cases is less likely to overburden hospitals or cause a huge increase in deaths.
Asked whether the rising numbers could result in another round of shutdowns or restrictions, MDHHS director Elizabeth Hertel said that MDHHS is pressuring people to double their strategies to avoid this. This includes wearing masks and conducting group activities outdoors whenever possible.
“It’s something that we talk about regularly when we look at what’s happening on the ground and try to balance that with the ability to still participate in a series of events and activities that we all enjoy,” she said.
One reason to be positive, she said, “The vaccination seems to be working.”
Khaldun agreed. “As we get more and more vaccines in the state and more people vaccinated, I don’t think we are going to see the same kind of increase that we saw in 2020,” she said. “But there is still a risk, especially with these various variants.
“We still have this ongoing problem,” said Khaldun, “but certainly promising that we have the vaccine.”
Read more about MLive:
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