Covid cases in Germany increasing “exponentially” amid a risky vaccination break

It is no secret that Germany has seen a sharp increase in coronavirus cases in recent weeks, but a leading health expert in the country is now warning of “exponential growth” in the number of infections.

This occurs at a time when the country has stopped using the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford coronavirus vaccine.

Epidemiologist Dirk Brockmann, an expert at the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases, said a recent loosening of Covid’s restrictions allowed a more virulent variant of the virus, first discovered in the UK last year, to spread quickly.

“We are exactly on the flank of the third wave. This can no longer be contested. And at this point, we have eased restrictions and this is accelerating exponential growth,” Brockmann told German broadcaster ARD on Tuesday.

“It has been totally irrational to relax here. This is just fueling this exponential growth,” he said.

Germany was praised for its initial response to the pandemic, managing to keep cases lower through an effective screening and tracking regime, and keeping the mortality rate lower thanks to its modern hospital infrastructure.

But in the past few months, during the winter and in the face of more virulent new variants of the virus, he seems to have a hard time containing infections. The slow launch of vaccines by the EU has not helped much, with the bloc facing criticism for its slow acquisition and distribution of vaccines. The launch of vaccination in Germany faced several obstacles, frustrating the country’s authorities and health experts.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and state leaders earlier this month agreed to a gradual easing of restrictions, along with an “emergency brake” that would allow authorities to reverse the course if the number of infections rises above 100 per 100,000 in three consecutive days.

The emergency brake, the government said, was foreseen “if we have an exponential growth” of cases. Merkel and regional leaders are expected to review the measures on March 22, where they will decide whether or not to move on to the next reopening stage.

The number of cases per 100,000 reported on Tuesday was 83.7, up from 68 the previous week, and RKI said the metric could reach 200 by mid-next month, Reuters noted in a report on Tuesday .

Germany’s blockade is expected to last at least March 28, but some restrictions have already been eased, with schools, daycare centers and hairdressers reopening earlier this month.

Then, bookstores and florists were allowed to reopen and some museums too, a week ago. Regional rules may vary, however, with states granting discretion over how and when they reopen certain case rates.

On March 22, Germany’s five-point plan to reopen envisaged that some restaurants, theaters and cinemas could reopen. But the growing number of infections can get in the way of that schedule.

The epidemiologist’s main comments came when Germany, and a handful of other European countries, decided to stop using the coronavirus vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford with concerns about reports of blood clots in a handful of vaccinated people.

The measure confused experts around the world, however, with the World Health Organization and the European Medicines Agency (which are conducting a vaccine safety review), both insisting that all available evidence shows that the vaccine is safe and effective and does not stimulate a higher risk of blood clots, which are common in the general population.

The vaccine manufacturer himself pointed out that the data show that the number of blood clots in the vaccinated population has been less than what was expected to occur naturally.

The WHO and EMA, which are due to publish the results of its safety review on Thursday, say the vaccine’s benefits outweigh the risks and that countries should not interrupt their immunization programs. However, more than a dozen European countries have suspended its use. This can lead to a dangerous increase in infections and deaths, experts say.

“The most recent data suggest 40 fatal cases for every 20 million vaccinated with Astra-Zeneca jabs. Each case considered individually is always terrible, but this, as a percentage, is statistically insignificant. About 2,000 more deaths per day in Europe, and tens of billions of euros in blockages, closed deals, “said Guido Cozzi, professor of macroeconomics at the University of St. Gallen, in a note on Tuesday.

Even though public health agencies like the WHO and the EMA reiterated on Thursday that the vaccine is safe, experts fear that more damage has already been done to the vaccine’s reputation.

The AstraZeneca vaccine has faced several obstacles, ranging from question marks about the methodology and data of the trial, mistaken hesitation about the effectiveness of the vaccine in people over 65 and disputes over delays in supply to the EU. Real-world data shows that the vaccine is extremely effective in preventing severe cases of Covid, hospitalizations and deaths in adults.