The NCAA women’s tournament field is set and the fun now begins with 64 teams descending in the San Antonio region for the event that was canceled in 2020.
This will be a tournament like no other, with all games played on neutral courts and teams making the Final Four having to basically live out of a hotel room for three weeks. Here’s a look at what can happen in the coming weeks in the tournament keys.
There are a few rules to live by:
CHALK RULES: A No. 1 seed won the national championship in the last eight tournaments and 12 out of 13. The only time that didn’t happen was in 2011, when Gary Blair took Texas A&M to the title as a seed two. In addition, since 2005, at least two of the No. 1s have reached the Final Four every year, except in 2016.
LACK OF MAIN DIFFICULTIES: Looking to harvest 14, 15 or 16 seeds for a turnaround? You may want to look elsewhere, as there was only one victory for any of these seeds in the tournament’s 38-year history. That was when Harvard with the 16th division dropped first place at Stanford in 1998. The 14, 15 and 16 seeds have since been unsuccessful.
BE CAREFUL WITH THE 12s: Just like the male key, the 12 seeds have had some success in recent years, rising the 5s. At least a 12 managed to get out of the first round in three of the last four tournaments.
And some advice too:
WAIT: Don’t rush to fill in your key this year because there is a chance that an important player or coach will have a positive test for COVID-19, which can really change the dynamics of the tournament.
And now the choices:
ALAMO REGION:
Analysis: Stanford is definitely the best overall seed for many reasons. The cardinals are profound, led by Haley Jones and Kiana Williams, talented and have already spent two months on the road, so three weeks in a hotel room shouldn’t bother you too much. It won’t be easy with a high-scoring Arkansas team as a potential Sweet 16 matchup. Dana Evans and Louisville potentially await the cardinal in the regional final.
Other players to watch: Chelsea Dungee, Arkansas; Natasha Mack, state of Oklahoma; Hannah Sjerven, South Dakota.
Unpleasant vigilance: UC Davis will continue the trend of 12s downing 5s, as the Aggies have a good chance of upsetting the Missouri State, which chose not to participate in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament before the semifinals because of the concerns of COVID- 19 with your opponent.
First round winners: Stanford, Oklahoma, UC Davis, Arkansas, South Dakota, Georgia, Northwestern, Louisville.
Second round winners: Stanford, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisville.
Regional semifinal winners: Stanford, Louisville.
Regional champion: Stanford.
HEMISFAIR REGION:
Analysis: South Carolina has a lot of young talent, but unfortunately does not have a lot of tournament experience. Gamecocks could go a long way, led by Aliyah Boston and Zia Cooke. Reaching Final Four, Dawn Staley’s team will have to pass through an Oregon state team that discovered itself after a long break from the coronavirus and then potentially UCLA or Maryland.
Other players to watch: Janelle Bailey, North Carolina; Kysre Gondrezick, West Virginia; Ashley Owusu, Maryland.
Upset Watch: Stephen F. Austin has won 19 consecutive games and has a good chance of winning as a seed 12 over Georgia Tech.
First round winners: South Carolina, Oregon State, Stephen F. Austin, West Virginia, Texas, UCLA, North Carolina, Maryland.
Second round winners: South Carolina, West Virginia, UCLA, Maryland.
Regional semifinal winners: South Carolina, Maryland.
Regional champion: Maryland.
RIVER WALK REGION:
Analysis: UConn has made the Final Four every season since 2008 and the young Huskies will be tested to get there. No Geno Auriemma coaches in the first two rounds and then potentially a tantalizing showdown awaits in Sweet 16 with Iowa and freshman sensation Caitlin Clark, or Kentucky with star Rhyne Howard. Get to Elite Eight and Baylor may be waiting for the Huskies. They were supposed to play in January, but that was canceled when Lady Bears coach Kim Mulkey had COVID-19.
Other players to watch: Paige Bueckers UConn; Tiana Mangakahia, Syracuse; Reinna Davis, Tennessee; NaLyssa Smith, Baylor.
Unpleasant vigilance: Florida’s Gulf Coast is led by Ohio state protractor Kierstan Bell. After she became eligible from the start, the team didn’t lose. The eagles will have to find a way to slow Naz Hillmon, the Ten Player of the Year.
First round winners: UConn, Syracuse, Iowa, Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast, Tennessee, Marquette, Baylor.
Second round winners: UConn, Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast, Baylor.
Regional semifinal winners: UConn, Baylor.
Regional champion: UConn.
MARKET REGION
Analysis: NC State defeated two No. 1 teams this season, defeating South Carolina and Louisville. Thus, Wolfpack, led by the versatile post-Elissa Cunane, can clearly play with anyone in the country. However, there can be balance and no team in the region is more balanced in attack than Texas A&M.
Other players to watch: Arella Guirantes, Rutgers; Aari McDonald, Arizona; Ashley Joens, Iowa state.
Unpleasant vigilance: BYU may give Rutgers a tough test in the first round, but watch out for Indiana potentially knocking NC State down on Sweet 16. The Hoosiers had a great season and have a talented post player at Mackenzie Holmes, who could match up with Cunane.
First round winners: NC State, South Florida, Gonzaga, Indiana, Rutgers, Arizona, Iowa State, Texas A&M.
Second round winners: NC State, Indiana, Rutgers, Texas A&M.
Regional final winners: Indiana, Texas A&M.
Regional champion: Texas A&M.
THE FOUR FINALS
Whoever gets here will be living in a hotel for three weeks and that is no small feat in itself. Stanford, UConn, Maryland and Texas A&M were excellent throughout the season.
The cardinal has been playing a stellar defense and will find a way to slow down Maryland, the country’s top scoring team.
UConn has been in the Final Four since 2008, but has lost in the national semifinals the last three times, although two of them were thrown in the last second in overtime. The Huskies will find a way to end this slippage and get to the title game.
NATIONAL CHAMPS
Stanford and UConn faced off for the 2010 title at the Alamodome and after an ugly offensive first half, the Huskies came out with a 53-47 victory. The cardinal will win this time, ending UConn’s unbeaten streak in league games and giving coach Tara VanDerveer his third national championship.
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