NEW YORK (AP) – Deaths in the United States from COVID-19 are falling again as the country continues to recover from the devastating winter wave, a trend that experts are cautiously hopeful to increase as more vulnerable people are vaccinated.
As new coronavirus infections and hospitalizations plummeted, the decline in deaths from a January peak of about 4,500 it was not so steep. But now, after weeks of hovering around 2,000 daily deaths, that number has dropped about 1,400 American lives lost each day to the coronavirus.
“I am excited about this data, but we must remain vigilant,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, at Friday’s meeting at the White House.
Public health experts say it is too early to say, definitively, what is causing the decline since the increase – but they suspect that a post-holiday drop in travel and in-house meetings, widespread use of masks and the launch of the vaccine all contributed. .
“We are going in the right direction,” said Harvard Medical School researcher Jagpreet Chhatwal. “I think a message of optimism is just.”
Walensky and others fear that a public tired of the pandemic will let its guard down too soon. And they are monitoring the spread of worrying new versions of the virus.
“We are all desperate to get this over with,” said Jeff Shaman, who studies infectious diseases at Columbia University. “We are not yet in a safe place.”
Health professionals say they’ve seen it happen before – an overwhelming wave of illness and death, momentary relief from a drop in COVID-19 cases and then another deadly outbreak. About 531,000 Americans have died since the pandemic began a year ago.
“Every time you thought it was over, the number of cases increased,” said Dr. Mark Rosenberg, chief of emergency medicine at St. Joseph’s Health in Paterson, New Jersey.
For now, most forecasts show that coronavirus deaths decrease even more in the coming weeks, as more people get vaccines. More than 100 million doses have been distributed since December, and the pace is accelerating.
“We hope that these deaths will continue to decrease even more,” said Justin Lessler, an infectious disease specialist at Johns Hopkins.
This week, 62% of people aged 65 and over have received at least one dose, according to the CDC. This is the age group that was most affected and is still responsible for the vast majority of COVID-19 deaths in the USA
Increasingly better treatments for severe COVID-19 will also continue to help, doctors say.
“All of these things are coming together to lessen the problem,” said Dr. Lewis Nelson, an emergency medicine specialist at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School.
The coronavirus death count is often behind new infections and hospitalizations, as it can take a long time for someone to become seriously ill and die after contracting the virus. It may also take weeks for the deaths to be added to the national count.
“Unfortunately, there is a kind of longer tail in the death and death of COVID-19,” said Boston College public health expert Philip J. Landrigan.
That’s what happened in the case of Teresa Ciappa, 73, from Amherst, New York, who had a terrible fever and cough around Thanksgiving. She was admitted to the hospital shortly thereafter and died in early January of complications from COVID-19.
“Week after week she refused and refused,” said her daughter, Michelle Ciappa, who lives in Columbus, Ohio.
Her family was there when she was removed from the respirator.
“We saw her take her last breath and that was it,” said Michelle Ciappa. “I would like people to be patient and take this more seriously.”
If states continue to lift restrictions, health experts warn, we could see another deadly wave of disease.
On Monday, Wyoming became the last state on a growing list – including Texas, Mississippi, North Dakota, Iowa, Montana and Alabama – that has withdrawn the mask requirements or plans to do so soon. Governors across the country have also eased restrictions on how many customers can be allowed in bars, restaurants, gyms and cinemas.
“They are not taking a slow, measured approach. They are changing their position, ”said Lessler. “There is a very real possibility of major resurgences.”
Experts are also concerned about the uncontrolled spread of mutant versions of the coronavirus, which spread more easily and may impair the effectiveness of certain treatments or vaccines.
“It’s still a race against time,” said Jaline Gerardin, who studies COVID-19 trends at Northwestern University. “The fear is that we are not going to take something when we should be.”
Rosenberg, the emergency room physician, said he hoped the public would be encouraged by the pandemic’s decreasing tendency to continue wearing masks, washing hands and keeping a safe distance from others.
“We know what worked,” he said. “If we are saying that we are in the last phase of the battle, do not keep your weapons yet.”
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AP writers, Thalia Beaty in New York and John Seewer in Toledo, Ohio, contributed to this report.
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